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The post The Florida Derby 2024 appeared first on AmWager | Online Horse Betting.
]]>Eleven three-year-olds are
scheduled to go in the Grade 1 mile and an eighth Florida Derby. The race is
not only an important 100-point Derby prep but the staple of the Gulfstream
Park Championship meet. It is only fitting South Florida winter based
two-year-old champion Fierceness is the headliner. He should go off a well back
significant favorite in the wagering, but he is far from a cinch in my view.
Hades who also returns in this spot beat him on the square last out in the Holy
Bull. We’ll go through the field and see how things shake out.
Frankie’s Empire breaks from
the rail off a decent showing in the Fountain of Youth. That race was decimated
by scratches, and it probably looks better on paper than it actually was. No
thank you for me.
Hades is three for three with
a nice win in the Holy Bull where he turned back Fierceness on the square. He
set a slow pace that day and I must believe they will be going harder and
faster on Saturday likely with more pressure. He will have to prove it to me.
Bail Us Out ran just okay in
his lone dirt start before breaking his maiden over the Tapeta. It is Pletcher
and Irad for Repole so you can’t be shocked if he has more to offer but I will
have to see it to believe it.
Grand Mo the First is
improving and I think he gets the right sort of trip in here. He is well bred,
comes off the Tampa strip that gets horses fit and I view him as a serious
player with a real chance. The 15-1 morning line only makes him more attractive
should it hold. Jaramillo could be sitting on a live one to win the biggest
race of his career to date.
Real Macho should sit a good
trip the way I see it but he looks a cut below a few in here to me.
Le Dom Bro appears to like
this track and is another who should sit a good trip if you like him. I don’t
believe he is good enough to win here.
Catalytic is interesting
coming out of two sprints. Leparoux rides and he is not a rider who likes to
gun, and I feel that would be this colt’s best chance. He is intriguing out of
the sprints and stretching out and Saffie can be deadly, but I will have to say
prove it to him also.
Seminole Chief managed to
land Joel Rosario, but he looks like he will need more than that to get home
first here.
Conquest Warrior looks very
good to me. He will get the pace he needs to rally into, he likes the track at
two for two, he has handled less than ideal trips already and has won at this
distance. If he can run as good off Lasix as he has been running on it, I think
he will be tough to beat. I think he will take money right into Fierceness and
end up the second choice. I’ll land here.
Fierceness is obviously
capable on his best. There are questions however and more than a few. I am not
sure I want an odds-on horse with questions. He has not been consistent and has
failed when faced with any adversity. The problem is it appears he will get a
dream stalk and pounce trip like what he got in the Breeders’ Cup. That said
has he progressed at three, can he win a fight, can he get past the speed and
hold off Shug’s horse late? We’ll find out and even if he wins, he will be hard
for me to trust going forward as things look perfect for him Saturday. I’ll
gamble Conquest Warrior can run him down.
Iris’s Dream would be a big
surprise.
Those are my thoughts on this
renewal of the Florida Derby. Enjoy the races!
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]]>Top Contenders: Lure Him In, Mbagnick, Tumbarumba, Steal Sunshine
YES, there are four win and exacta contenders listed in an eight horse field. HOWEVER, with it being highly likely Steal Sunshine and Tumbarumba, the one-two finishers in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile, will be the top two betting choices, there could be a good deal of profit potential on win bets and on exacta bets with Lure Him In, Mbagnick, or both.
I have to start with Lure Him In, who has a big shot to win in (at least) a mild upset if he repeats his effort in the Sunshine Classic Stakes on January 20, one race before last. It does not matter that was a state-bred restricted race but what does matter is it was at the mile and one-sixteenth (two-turns) distance of the Ghostzapper, NOT the one-turn mile of the Gulfstream Park Mile. Lure Him In drew the two post that day, similar to the rail today, and Edwin Gonzalez rode him, as today, so those are more reasons to expect the horse to repeat that effort which earned him a graded stakes quality 115 Equibase Speed Figure which is TWENTY-ONE points better than the 94 figures Steal Sunshine and Tumbarumba earned in the GP Mile and for which they will be heavily bet. Although Lure Him In did not run as well one month later in a classified allowance when (101 figure) he still finished second of 10 in a fine effort to show he’s still in top physical form. Since that race, the horse changed trainers to the high percentage barn of Saffie Joseph, Jr., so there is every reason to believe Lure Him In is capable of winning.
Mbagnick won two-turn races last November and December at Delta Downs, the best of which earned a decent 104 figure, which matches up with the 104 career-best figure Steal Sunshine earned last October and the 108 career-best figure Tumbarumba earned when second in the Louisiana Classic Stakes in December. He returned from more than two months off on March 9 in the Grade 3 Challenger Stakes at Gulfstream, at the distance of this race, and finished third behind multiple stakes winner Skippylongstocking, with a 100 figure effort he should improve upon second off the layoff.
Steal Sunshine and Tumbarumba don’t need much talking up, having won 11 of 33 races between them for combined earnings of nearly $1 million. As mentioned previously, although their 94 figures from last month in the GP Mile appear to indicate they may not be as fast as either Lure Him In or Mbagnick, if either of those two repeat or improve on their recent efforts, both Steal Sunshine and Tumbarumba have shown they are very competitive, and fast, when in the mood. On the other hand it must be noted that combined, these two have not won their last five races around two-turns, and neither has won at this distance, so it is difficult to consider betting either to win, particularly at low odds.
Win: We should consider a win bet on Lure Him In at odds of 3 to 1 or more, and on Mbagnick at odds of 4 to 1 or higher.
With the likely opportunity to bet two horses to win, we should consider DUTCHING the bet, which means to prorate wagers for the best value, is quite useful. There’s a free DUTCHING tool at Amwager which allows us to set the total amount we want to win and prorates our wagers for the maximum edge.
Exactas:
There is every reason to try to maximize profit here by avoiding any exactas which combine the two likely favorites (Steal Sunshine and Tumbarumba) in the first and second position, so the best exactas to play are:
Lure Him In and Mbagnick over Lure Him In, Mbagnick, Steal Sunshine and Tumbarumba
Lure Him In, Mbagnick, Steal Sunshine and Tumbarumba over Lure Him In and Mbagnick
(This way we win twice if Lure Him In and Mbagnick finish first and second)
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Top contender: Candy Light
Other contenders: Cairo Consort, Marketsegmentation, Angel Nadeshiko
It doesn’t happen nearly as often in North American racing as it does in Europe and elsewhere, but occasionally it is obvious when two horses from the same barn are entered in a race, one is a “RABBIT” who is designated to insure a fair (or fast) pace, for the benefit of the other. Such is the case in this race with Angel Nadeshiko appearing to be the RABBIT for Candy Light, and Angel Nadeshiko does have some things going for her as well. Angel Nadeshiko joined the Saffie Joseph, Jr. barn just prior to the Very One Stakes on March 2, having earned both her two-turn wins leading from start to finish, including in the Grade 3 Robert J. Frankel Stakes in December. In the Very One, Angel Nadeshiko set a very strong half-mile pace in 47.8 while in front by four lengths, holding the lead until over a mile and one-eighth had been run, then she faded to 10th. On the same card, in the Honey Fox Stakes at a mile, Candy Light was running beautifully and about one length off the leader when the field entered the stretch but found herself in significant traffic trouble when shut off, which stopped her momentum. She too had joined the Joseph, Jr. barn recently, prior to her January 27 race on the all-weather at Gulfstream, a $100,000 handicap, which she won with a big burst of late speed. Candy Light also won the Tropical Park Oaks in December, 2022, with a big late kick. With Candy Light getting a jockey change to Zayas, the #1 winning jockey for the barn, and with any racing luck at all enabling her to run as she did on January 27 or in the Tropical Park Oaks, Candy Light is very likely to emerge the winner in this race.
Cairo Consort gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. for Pletcher, while Marketsegmentation gets Jose Ortiz for Chad Brown. Cairo Consort led with an eight of a mile to run in the Very One then faded so shortening up in distance from 11 furlongs to a mile and one-sixteenth increases her chances of success, however noting she has gone winless in six starts since winning the Sweetest Chant Stakes on this turf course 13 months ago. Marketsegmentation has won five of eight starts in her career, all on grass, including the Grade 1 New York Stakes last May. She returns in a non-graded stakes off an eight month layoff and Brown does better than average with horses returning from layoffs of six months or more so she is a contender. On the other hand, both Cairo Consort and Marketsegmentation are likely to be much lower odds than Candy Light, or even Angel Nadeshiko for that matter, and the 104 best Equibase Speed Figures both have earned are NO BETTER than the two best figures of 105 and 104 Candy Light has earned in races representative of today’s conditions.
Win: Candy Light has at least a 25% chance to win this race, and so I will strongly consider a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exactas: Exacta boxes with Candy Light in first, and in second, along with the other three contenders, appear to be very good bets:
Box Candy Light, Cairo Consort
Box Candy Light, Marketsegmentation
Box Candy Light, Angel Nadeshiko
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Top Win contenders: Conquest Warrior, Hades, Frankie’s Empire
Exotic wagering contenders: Le Dom Bro, Seminole Chief, Fierceness
Conquest Warrior has a couple of things going for him that helped me decide he might be the most probable among a number of good three-year-olds in this year’s Florida Derby. Most importantly, Conquest Warrior is the only horse in the field that has won at this mile and one-eighth distance. That win came in his most recent start, four weeks ago, at Gulfstream, where he earned a career-best 85 Equibase Speed Figure. While that figure may not yet be in the same rarified air as the 97 figure Hades earned when winning the Holy Bull Stakes, the way Conquest Warrior won the race suggests he will improve markedly. In that effort, Conquest Warrior stalked in fourth for the first half-mile then moved quickly to second, then to lead, with an eight of a mile to run. He was effortless after that, drawing off to a five length margin under jockey Jose Ortiz, who rides back. Trained by Shug McGaughey, who teamed up with Ortiz to win the 2021 Holy Bull Stakes and Fountain of Youth Stakes with Greatest Honour before a third place finish in the Florida Derby that year, Conquest Warrior appeared to have the equivalent of a full tank of gas at the end of his last start which could enable him to post the mild upset in this field.
Hades might be the top pick in this year’s Florida Derby but I have slight concerns about his being off since winning the Holy Bull on February 3, whereas Conquest Warrior ran on March 1. Perhaps Hades is the kind of horse that doesn’t need to run about every four to six weeks to keep in top shape and he did win the Holy Bull after five weeks off, but in this case he is returning from eight weeks off. Otherwise, Hades has no knocks, as he’s a perfect three-for-three in his career, with 97 and 95 speed figures in his last two starts. Additionally, Hades breaks from the two post and has excellent tactical speed, with the horse inside of him in the gate (Frankie’s Empire) not likely to try for the lead. This allows jockey Paco Lopez, who has been in the saddle for all three wins aboard Hades, to get the horse on the lead and running easily from the start. In the Holy Bull, Hades led for the first half-mile, was a head behind after three-quarters of a mile had been run, then accelerated in the stretch to win by a couple of lengths. As such, Hades could be the horse to catch, and beat, in the Florida Derby.
Frankie’s Empire is a very interesting horse, not only because of his three race pattern of improving speed figures, from 89 to 94 to 99, but because the career-best 99 figure earned four weeks ago in the Fountain of Youth was his first two turn race of the year. Prior to that he had changed trainers and won the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream as he rallied from sixth of seven in the early stages. Although no match for Dornoch in the last quarter mile of the Fountain of Youth, Frankie’s Empire held Le Dom Bro safe the entire length of the stretch, demonstrating mental toughness. As a son of Classic Empire, whose son Angel of Empire won the 2023 Arkansas Derby at this distance, and as the 99 figure earned in the Fountain of Youth is a bit higher than the 95 figure Hades earned in the Holy Bull, Frankie’s Empire deserves consideration as a contender to win this race.
Le Dom Bro, Seminole Chief and Fierceness appear a cut below the top three in terms of probability to win but might be profitable if used on some exacta tickets. Le Dom Bro earned a career-best 99 figure in the Fountain of Youth but he ran evenly in the last quarter mile in that race so it appears he may prefer shorter distances. Just the same, he’s still improving and could get a piece. Seminole Chief earned a 96 figure in his allowance win last month but that was on the all-weather track and the figure was earned leading from the start, which he may not be able to do today with Hades breaking from a better inside post and wanting the early lead as well. On the other hand, Rosario gets on and can be a master are rating speed horses so Seminole Chief may be stalking Hades from the start and could stick around for a share at the end. Fierceness disappointed as the heavy favorite when checking in third in the Holy Bull with a 90 figure, nowhere near the 110 figure he earned winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall, but he can improve.
Win: Conquest Warrior should be considered for a win bet at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
For a smaller amount than the bet on Conquest Warrior, Frankie’s Empire can be considered for a win bet at 4 to 1 or more.
Hades has the same minimum odds (fair odds) as Conquest Warrior, but it is likely he will be one of the favorites and may not make that threshold.
This is another excellent race were, if we are considering bets on more than one horse, in this case Conquest Warrior and Frankie’s Empire, a dutching tool to allocate our wagers based on the odds, might maximize our edge in the race. This should ensure a smaller amount is bet on Frankie’s Empire (as mentioned above) than on Conquest Warrior given the difference in their odds.
Exactas:
Frankie’s Empire, Hades, Le Dom Bro and Conquest Warrior over Frankie’s Empire, Hades, Le Dom Bro, Seminole Chief, Conquest Warrior and Fierceness
Conquest Warrior over Frankie’s Empire, Hades, Le Dom Bro, Seminole Chief and Fierceness
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]]>At Santa Anita the Grade 3 San Luis Rey drew only five to race the mile and a half. Of the five only Balladeer has early speed, and he also goes second off the lay-off. Despite a clear pace advantage and a projection that puts him lengths in front he is likely the third choice in here. He may get inhaled when it counts but I would have to ride him as far as he goes under these circumstances.
At Oaklawn Park the Grade 3 Essex drew 9 older horses. While I am willing to toss the dud First Mission threw in The Pegasus when I expected a much better race, I won’t come back with him in here. I lean to Wizard of Westwood who has done most of his racing on the grass, but I believe he prefers the dirt. He is second off the lay-off and is two for two on the main track. I think Vazquez can go or sit and I feel he will run a big race here, possibly his career best to date. The 8-1 morning line would be very generous.
The Texas Glitter turf sprint at 5 furlongs at Gulfstream Park looks like speed, speed, and more speed on paper. Reef Runner looks like he gets the trip and the set-up under Paco. His lone start on the grass was good, and if he can repeat it he could be tough to beat.
Lady Mine looks pretty good in The Biogios Rose at Aqueduct. She is just a different and much better filly since moving into the Jeremiah Englehart barn. She can sit close and finish and has won 5 of her 12 starts lifetime. She will have to run better than she has, but she is going in confidant and on top of her game.
For those looking ahead we may have one of the best turf fields we have seen in years next Saturday in Dubai. The Longines Dubai Sheema Classic, a Group 1 on the turf on the World Cup undercard is as star studded as it gets. Auguste Rodin, Emily Upjohn, Junko, Point Lonsdale, Shahryar, and Rebels Romance are all scheduled to start along with a few others. That should be one of the best races of the year.
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]]>Top Contender: Determined Driver
Determined Driver finished second in the similar Wide Country Stakes four weeks ago, three-quarters of a length from the winner and a bit more than a length over the third place finisher. The winner (Miss Harriett) does not return for this race and that makes Determined Driver the one to beat. After returning from a five month layoff in February, she won nicely at six furlongs on February 9 then just 15 days later improved to a career-best 90 Equibase Speed Figure when rallying from fourth into the runner-up spot in the Wide Country. No horse in the field has run as fast to date and she’s likely to improve third off the layoff, which is what makes her the one to beat.
Win: We should consider a win bet on Determined Drive at odds of 6 to 5 or more, making her a likely low odds overlay if above those odds.
Double:
Race 8: Determined Driver
Race 9: Speed Runner, I Know Map
Race 8: Determined Driver
Race 9: Speed Runner, I Know Map, Point Dume
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Win contenders: Speed Runner, I Know Map
Other contenders: Speedyness, Point Dume
In a race like this we have to discuss the likely favorite first, and that is Speedyness. It’s not that the likely odds-on favorite Speedyness can’t win, but it is very important that he is a poor win bet in this situation whereas others offer much better return and are possibly just as probable to win. Speedyness has won five of nine including four of his last five. He won the Miracle Wood Stakes four weeks ago rather easily at 4 to 5 odds in a field of seven, earning a 90 figure. He ran the best of any of this group on January 7 with a 100 figure effort, also at a mile the same as the Miracle Wood. HOWEVER, in nine races Speedyness has never run around two turns, which is what he’s doing today in this mile and one-sixteenth race. There is a old axiom which states “never bet a heavy favorite to win when he or she is doing something for the first time” and that applies here because no matter how fast Speedyness has been, this is a new thing for the colt. Therefore if he wins, he wins without my money as a win bet or even in the first position on exacta tickets.
Instead, we are focusing on both Speed Runner and I Know Map. Speed Runner is the ONLY horse in the field to have won around two-turns and one of only three to have run two turns among the nine entrants. He did so on December 8 in New York in a nine furlong race, getting up to win by a neck after stalking the pacesetter from the start, earning an 87 figure at the time which compares favorably with the 90 figure Speedyness earned in his most recent race. Entered in the Withers Stakes four weeks later, Speed Runner didn’t do much running when sixth of nine but did have a traffic issue. Shipping out of New York for Pletcher and repeating or improving off his other two-turn race, Speed Runner has a decent shot to succeed.
I Know Map has won three of five races and missed by a neck in another. Since returning from a two month layoff in February he’s won two in a row, improving from a 77 figure effort to 84 three weeks ago. Angel Cruz rode him for the first time in that win and got a lot out of him so is riding back and the pattern suggests another seven point (or more) improvement, putting him at 91 and in range of how fast Speedyness ran in the Miracle Wood. I Know Map may also benefit from a lively early pace, as Speedyness has earned all five wins leading from start to finish but there are a couple others who could test that one early and set up a stalker like I Know Map.
In addition to Speedyness having a decent shot to stick around for second if passed late, Point Dume is another to consider for that position on exacta tickets. He won two in a row in December and February then was second for the entire stretch run behind Speedyness last month in the Miracle Wood. He may not be good enough to win but he would likely offer value if checking in second once again.
Win: There is significant value on both top win contenders, as Speed Runner opens at odds of 5 to 1 while I Know Map opens at very high odds of 30 to 1. Considering I think Speed Runner can be considered for a win bet at 3 to 1 or higher odds, while I Know Map can be considered for a win bet at 5 to 1 or higher odds, this means we should be betting both contenders.
With the likely opportunity to bet two horses to win, we should consider DUTCHING the bet, which means to prorate wagers for the best value, is quite useful. There’s a free DUTCHING tool at Amwager which allows us to set the total amount we want to win and prorates our wagers for the maximum edge.
Exactas:
Speed Runner and I Know Map over Speed Runner, I Know Map, Point Dume and Speedyness
Additionally, considering the high odds of I Know Map, even if he runs second there is value in an exacta instead of a place bet, as follows: ALL over I Know Map
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Top Win contenders: Offlee Naughty, Planetario
Offlee Naughty won the 2023 San Luis Rey Stakes, making his second start off a four month layoff. This year he enters the race off nearly six months on the bench, which would possibly be of concern EXCEPT for the fact last year before the San Luis Rey, Offlee Naughty won the Grade 2 Charles Whittingham Stakes at 10 furlongs off a four month layoff. Horses that run marathon races (a mile and one-half or more) don’t need the kind of prep work which is needed for shorter distances, and considering leading rider Juan Hernandez has signed on, having never ridden the horse before, I see no problem with Offlee Naughty winning this race for the second year in a row.
Planetario is the ONLY other horse I think can win, given Balladeer and Missed the Cut have either run poorly at the distance or never run this mile and one-half trip. Planetario was second to Offlee Naughty in this race last year and won the Hollywood Turf Cup in November at the distance so has the credentials to succeed, and he makes his second start after three months off and after a nice finish from sixth to second behind Missed the Cut in the shorter San Marcos Stakes six weeks ago.
Win: Minimum odds for a win bet on Offlee Naughty are 7 to 5, and they are 8 to 5 on Planetario. In this situation even though I think Offlee Naughty is a bit more probable to win, for making win bets I’d bet whichever of the two is the highest odds near post time.
Exactas: Box Offlee Naughty and Planetario
Doubles:
Race 7: Offlee Naughty, Planetario
Race 8: Yellow Brick, Don’t Swear Dave
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Top Win contenders: Yellow Brick, Don’t Swear Dave
Yellow Brick is a PERFECT fit at this first allowance level (NW1X) coming off a strong win in straight maiden company four weeks ago. Although that win came in his eighth career start, it was his first after eight months off, first in blinkers and first with Kimura riding, who rides back. The colt did finish second twice around two turns last spring at Santa Anita so the stretch out from seven furlongs to one mile and one-sixteenth, in conjunction with making his second start off the layoff and off a career-best 101 Equibase Speed Figures, portends for his second win in a row.
The main competition to Yellow Brick will be Don’t Swear Dave, who has won four of seventeen starts. 12 of his starts were on turf but his win last month over the main track at a mile after four turf races this year showed he may have found a new home on the main track. That effort earned the same 101 figure as Yellow Brick did in his last win, and the horse was claimed by excellent trainer Knapp out of the race and is in for the optional $50K claiming price as he’s already won at this allowance level. Gutierrez rides back off the claim, which isn’t rare but isn’t commonplace either, and that’s a good sign too.
Win: Both Yellow Brick and Don’t Swear Dave can and should be considered for win bets at odds of 2 to 1 or more, and I would not hesitate to bet both if both are 4 to 1 or higher odds, using the free Dutching tool at Amwager to do so and to help get the best mathematical edge possible.
Exactas: Box Yellow Brick and Don’t Swear Dave
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]]>The Chosen Vron has been nothing short of a win machine with a huge heart sitting at 15 for 20 lifetime. It seems all he does is win whether against California bred sot in open company. He is 10 for his last 11 and the loss came in The Breeders’ Cup Sprint where he was only beaten 5 lengths. He loves Santa Anita and loves 7 furlongs. The Grade 1 winner will be odds on to win The Grade 3 San Carlos and I’ll bet against him.
Elwood Blues rides a 3-race win streak into this. He has never been farther than 6 furlongs, but I believe he will be better at 7. He only gets 4 pounds from The Chosen Vron and while I wish it was more, I think he will get the lead early and get brave. Brave enough to beat the 6-year-old gelding who seems to just keep coming remains to be seen but I like my chances at anything close to the 4-1 morning line.
I’m A Gambler tries the dirt and is somewhat of a mystery. Frankie rides for the hot Glatt barn but he would have to be much better on dirt than turf to win this. Yes, I think he can probably handle the dirt, but that much better I would have to see.
The other Glatt trainee, Ghost of Midnight is 5 for 6 lifetime and handles the dirt just fine. He cuts back from a mile, and we know the Ghostzapper gelding is as honest as they come. I don’t like the pace set up he faces here so I will go in the other direction trying to beat the odds-on favorite.
McLaren Vale is the first one in here I think is simply over his head and not fast enough to beat these.
Super Chief would be a major surprise and upset.
Most of them get beat at some point and it usually comes at a short price and often when you don’t expect it. Elwood Blues would not be a shocker and I will be surprised if his 4-1 morning line holds, but beating an odds-on horse almost always has value somewhere and I will try and find it. Speed is always dangerous.
Let’s hope we get out clear and forget to stop! Enjoy the races.
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]]>I always look twice at horses coming off the Tampa Bay Downs dirt track. I think it is a somewhat quirky track that can play funny, but it gets horses fit and legged up as they say. It is also looked at as somewhat second or third tier so often those horses are overlooked at some of the bigger meets.
On Saturday I will be looking directly at Tampa as we have The Tampa Bay Derby. You can hear from one of the top Tampa Bay Downs jockeys RIGHT HERE on how both the Tampa dirt and turf play. Knowledge is power.
Heartened breaks from the rail for Todd Pletcher. He has been steady and finally put it together last out to break his maiden. The race was also over the track, and I view that as a positive. Contender.
Everdoit was 100-1 when he lost the rider last out in The Sam Davis. Kevin Rice is not deterred and comes right back here. I am not a believer. Pretender.
Give Me Liberty looks way over his head. Pretender.
Good Money has only one start and it is a win over the track. He comes out of that seven-furlong sprint and goes right to the wolves so to speak. I expect him to go right to the top and not look back. Contender and where I land.
Domestic Product is probably the shorter priced entrant from Chad Brown. I like the other one. I’ll go with where I see a pace advantage especially with these lightly raced young horses. This colt definitely looks like one who has gone forward from two to three and can win, but I lean elsewhere. Contender.
Catire Vizcaya was good last summer at Saratoga so has or at least had ssome ability but has been dull in the two starts since leaving The Adirondacks. Not for me. Pretender.
No More Time ran big to win The Sam Davis. With Paco likely committed to Hades in the upcoming Florida Derby the connections go to Javier Castellano. I’ll have to see him string two efforts like the last one together especially with a different pace scenario. He’d be no surprise but again prove it. Pretender.
Crazy Mason has a lot of bottom to him and if you can toss the last or find a legit excuse, I guess you can give him a chance here. He is another I’ll make prove it to me. Pretender.
Grand Mo the First is an interesting runner in here. His only start on the main track looks like a perfect set up race for this. That third in The Swale is not a bad race at all and he can improve in the second dirt start and stretching out. Contender.
Sturdy is getting better but is still a maiden against winners. The wide draw does not help his chances. I think he will be very tough in the right maiden spot coming out of this race and off the Tampa track. That said I can’t entirely dismiss him. Contender.
It won’t be easy for Good Money to wire these and if by chance Irad doesn’t try to and ultimately clear off I think it would be a mistake. That said I think he will clear, and they can’t beat what they can’t catch. Hopefully the price is fair despite the connections as this is no cakewalk. I’ll take my shot hopefully on the front end and be a little more confidant if we have a speed friendly or favoring racetrack.
Enjoy the races!
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]]>Top Contenders: Style Points, Dynamic Pricing
Other contenders: Pharoah’s Wine
Style Points is on a strong pattern for improvement off a neck defeat in the similar Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month, at this distance on turf. She had broken her maiden on 12/24/23 in her second career start, at this distance on turf, improving to a 93 Equibase Speed Figure in the Sweetest Chant which is tied for the best 2024 figure in the field with Dynamic Pricing, who finished another neck behind in third. Dynamic Pricing is making her third career start and second following the return from three months off in the Sweetest Chant so is likely to improve, but Style Points gets slight preference because in the race she stalked in third, moved up to lead late in the race, before being beaten right near the wire, while Dynamic Pricing was rallying from seventh. In this race Poolside With Slim and A Primera Vista both draw inside and led from start to finish in their most recent races, as did Destiny Star, so that puts Style Points in a great early position third or fourth before rallying and before Dynamic Pricing gets her late rally going.
Pharoah’s Wine may go to post at decent odds because she finished sixth in the Sweetest Chant. She was decently regarded at 4 to 1 odds, lower than either Style Points or Dynamic Pricing, but lost position at the start when she threw her head and was last of eight for most of the race, eventually closing for sixth. Last October, Pharoah’s Wine was four lengths back in the early stages of the Grade 2 Jessamine Stakes and finished well for second, so with a better start and early position it is possibly she could be rallying from the back along with Dynamic Pricing.
Win: We should consider a win bet on Style Points at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Minimum odds for a win bet on Dynamic Pricing are 3 to 1. Pharoah’s Wine can be considered for a win bet at 4 to 1 or more.
With the likely opportunity to bet two horses to win, we should consider DUTCHING the bet, which means to prorate wagers for the best value, is quite useful. There’s a free DUTCHING tool at Amwager which allows us to set the total amount we want to win and prorates our wagers for the maximum edge.
Exactas:
Style Points, Dynamic Pricing over Style Points, Dynamic Pricing, Pharoah’s Wine
Box Style Points, Dynamic Pricing, Pharoah’s Wine
Double (three plays):
Race 10: Style Points, Dynamic Pricing, Pharoah’s Wine
Race 11: Heartened, Domestic Product, No More Time, Sturdy
Race 10: Style Points, Dynamic Pricing, Pharoah’s Wine
Race 11: Heartened
Race 10: Style Points
Race 11: Heartened, Domestic Product, No More Time, Sturdy
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Win contenders: Heartened, No More Time, Domestic Product
Other contenders: Sturdy
Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Bay Derby five times in the past 11 years, and if I’m correct Heartened is the most likely winner, it will be six of 12 at about 5:20 pm on Saturday March 9. Heartened started his 2024 campaign on turf in January, rallying from 10th of 12 to get third at the end. Shipped to Tampa for a race four weeks ago, and moved to dirt, ostensibly for Pletcher to determine how the colt liked this track and its dirt course, Heartened won impressively by four and one-half lengths at the end. The most impressive thing about that effort wasn’t the margin of victory but was the way Heartened ran in the race. Heartened broke in fourth position then moved up to engage with the leader about the time a quarter mile had been run. Still battling head-and-head for the lead for another quarter mile or so, Heartened extended his stride to be in front by two lengths with one-eighth of a mile to run then widened further. Having improved to a career best 94 Equibase Speed Figure, we can compare that effort to the one put forth a couple hours later by No More Time winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes. That effort earned the same 94 figure. Jose Ortiz rode Heartened to victory last month and rides back, and the colt gets the ground saving rail so Ortiz can once again ask the colt for a burst of speed as needed. As such, Heartened appears to be a strong contender to win this year’s Tampa Bay Derby.
No More Time stretched out to a mile (around one turn) last October in his second career start and won by nearly seven lengths, earning a decent 87 Figure for a two year old. After being given more than two months off to mature physically and mentally, No More Time lost his composure in the post parade for the Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day, then hopped in the air at the start, mis-expended energy to move up to third, then tired. Shipped to Tampa for the Sam F. Davis Stakes four weeks ago, No More Time was much more composed and easily made the lead in a field of 10, battling for that lead through the first six furlongs, then drawing off by two lengths and holding the runner-up at bay. Improving to a 94 figure in that race, No More Time should take another step forward in his third start off the layoff. Although leading from start to finish in the Sam F. Davis, No More Time rallied from off the pace for his maiden win last fall so no matter the pace scenario this improving three year old has every right to win his second stakes race in a row.
Domestic Product showed a lot of talent in his second lifetime start last October when running a mile and one-eighth and winning by the same four and one-half length margin as Heartened did last month, earning a similar 88 figure to the one Heartened received in his first victory around the same time. Next, Domestic Product ran poorly in the Remsen Stakes last December as he faded to seventh after running in fourth from the start and through the mile mark. Given a couple of months off to grow up physically and mentally, Domestic Product rallied from fifth to run second in the Holy Bull Stakes on February 3 at the distance of the Tampa Bay Derby. Although behind winner Hades by two lengths during the entire stretch run, Domestic Product finished in front of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness and earned a 92 figure. Making his second start as a three year old, Domestic Product can be expected to take a step forward off that last effort and rounds out a trio which appears to stand out against the rest in this field.
Honorable mention goes to Sturdy, who has yet to win in two starts. Three year olds early in the year sometimes do earn their first wins in stakes races, such as Lemon Muffin two weeks ago in the Honeybee Stakes at Oaklawn. Sturdy finished second last fall to Domestic Product in a nine furlong race, then returned for his three year old campaign two weeks ago and finished third with an 81 figure. He was beaten just a half-length for the win in that race and should take a nice step forward in his second start as a three year old, giving him a shot at an in-the-money finish at the least.
Win: We should look closely at the odds with about 10 minutes to post or less and at that point I would consider win bets on (either or both) Heartened and No More Time at 5 to 2 or higher.
I might also consider a win bet on Sturdy at 5 to 1 or more.
Domestic Product has minimum odds of 3 to 1 but considering Chad Brown trains I believe he will be lower odds than that and in which case we can make money if he wins using him on exacta tickets, as well as double tickets from the previous race.
This should be another opportunity to gain the mathematical edge provided by using the free (and easy to use) DUTCHING tool at Amwager which allows us to set the total amount we want to win and prorates our wagers for the maximum edge.
Exactas:
Box Heartened, Domestic Product, No More Time
Heartened, Domestic Product, No More Time over Heartened, Domestic Product, No More Time, Sturdy
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Top Win contender: Kanthari, Big Invasion
Other contenders: Panther Island, Coppola
Kanthari is a lightly raced five year old, having started five times and winning three of those. ALL five starts have come in similar short sprints like this five furlong race, and all three wins have come at Gulfstream. The most recent came on January 5 when, following seven months off, Kanthari won a classified allowance race under Paco Lopez, who rides today, running fast from start to finish and giving no other horse a chance. That effort earned a sparkling 107 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the same as Big Invasion earned when beaten a neck for the win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint last fall. Rested two months, Kanthari is very capable of repeating that effort and none of the horses in this field possess the kind of early speed he has so there is every indication that effort is repeatable, and good enough to win today.
Big Invasion is a top turf sprint start, having won eight of 15 turf races, all sprints, and like Kanthari three of those have been at Gulfstream. One was the 2023 Silks Run, where he rallied from sixth of nine early as the 7 to 5 favorite, and he is likely to be the favorite today. This is because his last three races of 2023 were all top efforts, including a win in the Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes before nearly winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. In his last two races of 2023, Big Invasion earned 110 and 107 figures which are good enough to win if Kanthari doesn’t run as he did in January. On the other hand, when winning this race last year off a layoff just like he’s coming back from this year, Big Invasion earned a 97 figure which is inferior to how fast he’d need to run today to win, so it could be he’s a much poorer win bet than Kanthari and a couple of others.
Panther Island won the similar Janus Stakes at this distance over this course in December with a very strong 114 figure, then nearly won the similar Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint four weeks ago, moving up from third to lead late then beaten a half-length at the end with a 101 figure. Coppola won that race, rallying from sixth after getting a jockey change to Zayas for the first time. Although fourth in the Janus and behind Panther Island prior to that, Coppola had earned a 110 figure so he too cannot be counted out as a contender in this race.
Win: Kanthari and Big Invasion should absolutely be considered for win bets at odds of 5 to 2 or more. As mentioned previously, I do not expect Big Invasion t make that threshold so we can bet exacta and double tickets to earn a profit if he should win.
Panther Island and Coppola can be considered for win bets at 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Kanthari over Panther Island, Big Invasion, Coppola
Kanthari and Big Invasion over Kanthari, Panther Island, Big Invasion, Coppola
Doubles (two plays):
Race 9: Kanthari, Panther Island, Big Invasion, Coppola
Race 10: Red Carpet Ready
Race 9: Kanthari
Race 10: Red Carpet Ready, Spirit Wind, Olivia Darling, Lady Radler
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Top Win contender: Red Carpet Ready
Other contenders: Lady Radler, Spirit Wind, Olivia Darling
Red Carpet Ready has won four of six races, but one of those can be discounted as it was her effort last July when seventh that led to the eight month layoff she’s returning from today. She’s been working steadily for her return and won in her debut as well as the Grade 3 Forward Gal Stakes 13 months ago here at Gulfstream. She also won the Grade 2 Eight Belles Stakes on Kentucky Oaks day last May, following two months off. Saez was up for her last two wins and rides today, and the 99 Equibase Speed Figure which Red Carpet Ready earned in the Eight Bells is the best figure earned by any horse in this field, ever, and is likely to be improved upon now that she’s a more mature four year old. This makes her the one to beat as she’s a perfect four for four at distances under a mile like this one.
Lady Radler proved she belongs in the female sprint division when taking the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes last September, with a 95 figure. She had run a bit faster in the Goldfinch Stakes in May with a 98 figure, but had also thrown in two poorer efforts in 2023. After being off for nearly four months, Lady Radler returned in the Minaret Stakes at Tampa and tired in the stretch after leading from the start and for the first five furlongs. She’s going to be more physically fit today, and isn’t necessarily a need-the-lead types as she won the Dogwood from off the pace. Coming off that seemingly poor effort, Lady Radler may be ignored by the betting public and noting her Dogwood win came at odds of 23 to 1 I feel she deserves some consideration as a contender.
Spirit Wind has only finished worse than second one time in eight races, winning five of the other seven. She absolutely LOVES Gulfstream where all five wins have come, including the Grade 2 Princess Rooney in July of 2022 and the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl last December. She has won the last FOUR times she’s come back from layoffs as she’s doing here and the 98 figure earned in the Sugar Swirl could make her very competitive again if repeated.
Olivia Darling was beaten by a pair of necks by Spirit Wind in the Sugar Swirl then flattered that one when winning the Grade 2 Inside Information Stakes on January 27. Making her third start after being off for almost three months, Olivia Darling can improve off the 96 and 98 figure efforts in those two races. However, it could be notable that Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode Olivia Darling in those two recent starts, is at Tampa Bay Downs today and David Egan is riding. Although an accomplished jockey, Egan is just 5 for 61 (8%) at the Gulfstream Park meeting and has never ridden the mare previously.
Win: Red Carpet Ready should be considered for a win bet at 9 to 5 or more. Hopefully we are live to the double from race 9 as well so if her odds are lower we will be able to make our profit from her winning that way.
Lady Radler and Spirit Wind can be considered for win bets at 7 to 2 or higher. Olivia Darling can be considered for a win bet at 4 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Red Carpet Ready over Lady Radler, Spirit Wind, Olivia Darling
Red Carpet Ready and Lady Radler over Red Carpet Ready, Lady Radler, Spirit Wind, Olivia Darling
The post Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 9th, 2024 appeared first on AmWager | Online Horse Betting.
]]>The post The Fountain of Youth 2024 appeared first on AmWager | Online Horse Betting.
]]>Nine are scheduled to go to post for The Fountain of Youth on Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Two of the scheduled runners, Speak Easy and Merit are also entered in an allowance race on Friday and as of now we don’t know where each will start. That is an important factor to consider as both have some early speed and one or both coming out of The Fountain of Youth will impact the pace.
Speak Easy ran a big debut for Todd Pletcher on The Pegasus undercard. It was a fast race, and he stalked a lively pace and finished good in 1:21.96 for 7 furlongs. Victory Avenue who we will get to in a minute ran second after setting that hot pace and though still a maiden he comes back here also. Victory gallop was the “hype” horse that day and Todd’s horse went off at longer odds than well meant fast Pletcher horses usually do. Maybe that is a tell, and maybe it isn’t. We won’t know that until he goes back to the gate. If he opts for this spot, it is a lofty goal and big ask. He should have speed from the rail, but he will have to carry it a mile and a sixteenth around two turns against more seasoned foes.
Le Dom Bro is another with speed but looks to be in over his head at the deep end of the pool.
Victory Avenue comes from the sharp connections who won The Kentucky Derby with Mage last year and they run this horse back here as a maiden. It is an ambitious spot at this point, but this horse obviously has talent and is fast. He also fought back from the rail when Speak Easy went by him. There is a lot of room for improvement here and if he can sit off horses and rally, he can be dangerous at a much better price than in his debut.
Real Macho has the right style for this based on how I see the pace, but he has yet to run two back-to-back good races. He is coming off a win, so it looks like he is likely not run one of his better efforts.
Dornoch was flattered by Sierra Leone coming back to win The Risen Star. He is a full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage and has plenty of speed. That said he can also sit a trip which if he does as opposed to gunning he is the one to beat.
Merit is also entered in an allowance race Friday. If he goes here, I think he is interesting. He looks like a stalker and again I think that is the right move here. He goes second of the bench for the first time, and I think he can make some noise.
Frankie’s Empire is worth a shot in here at a price. He can sit off the pace but not that far off and with the speed in here he should be rallying when it counts. His turf race and muddy track race were his only bad efforts and with question marks around the big names in here maybe we can get this Classic Empire colt home.
Locked is a nice horse and a deserving favorite or co-favorite with Dornoch. He has never run a bad race and if this were a mile and an eighth as opposed to a mile and a sixteenth I’d probably land here. I also think Gulfstream plays against his style at this distance. If he is close enough and doesn’t have too much to do he is the likely winner, but with the question marks I’ll go for the price.
Dancing Groom looks over his head and a cut below these.
I’ll take a shot with Frankie’s Empire who I think fits and should get the right kind of trip. This is a competitive and interesting race with plenty of ways to go. For me, I hope the track is playing fair and the front is contested.
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]]>The post Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 2nd, 2024 appeared first on AmWager | Online Horse Betting.
]]>Top Contenders: Ticking, Shaq Diesel, Tumbarumba
Other contenders: Castle Chaos, Steal Sunshine
Ticking may be disregarded by many bettors and go to post at decent (high) odds, which is fine for us who believe he can win. The recently turned four year old won by large margins at seven furlongs on dirt at Gulfstream last February and March, then ran poorly on turf, on all-weather and around two turns. Given nearly six months off, he returned in December and finished fourth but then ran the best race of his career on January 20, once again around one turn at Gulfstream. In that race Ticking stalked the pacesetters in third early, went four paths wide on the turn and drew off. He was 42 to 1 that day but ran as well, or BETTER, than the horses coming out of the Fred W. Hooper Stakes on January 27, as he earned a career-best and field high last race Equibase Speed Figure of 103. He’s making his third start off a layoff and is a four year old which suggests he will not regress and Edgard Zayas, who has been aboard for all three of his carer wins, rides back, more reasons to look at Ticking first when considering our win bets in this race.
Shaq Diesel also won in January over the track, one day earlier than Ticking, and with the second best last race figure (102) in the field. He’s now won five of 13 races, three at Gulfstream, and just like Ticking is on a pattern for a new best effort given his speed figure was 95 one before the 102 last out. Bravo was up for both is recent wins, the other in a 100K stakes for Florida breds at seven furlongs, and with that in mind Shaq Diesel must be respected as a win contender.
Tumbarumba won the Hooper on January 27, at odds of 8 to 1, rallying nicely from second with an eighth of a mile to go and out finishing Castle Chaos (who ended up second) and Steal Sunshine (who finished third). Saez was up for the third time and all three times Luis has ridden they have won, including back-to-back wins last April and June. Since the win last month came second off the layoff and since Tumbarumba has won two in a row before, he certainly has a shot to do so here and rounds out a strong trio of contenders.
Win: We absolutely should bet two of the three contenders above at odds of 3 to 1 or more, taking advantage of any errors in judgement the public is going to make. Therefore I recommend waiting until about 10 minutes to post (or less) and betting whichever two of the three – Ticking, Shaq Diesel, Tumbarumba, are at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
With the likely opportunity to bet two horses to win, we should consider DUTCHING the bet, which means to prorate wagers for the best value, is quite useful. There’s a free DUTCHING tool at Amwager which allows us to set the total amount we want to win and prorates our wagers for the maximum edge.
Exactas:
Box Ticking, Shaq Diesel, Tumbarumba
Ticking, Shaq Diesel, Tumbarumba over Ticking, Shaq Diesel, Tumbarumba, Castle Chaos, Steal Sunshine
Trifecta: Ticking, Shaq Diesel, Tumbarumba over ALL over Ticking, Shaq Diesel, Tumbarumba
When playing both the exacta and trifecta (even if just for the $0.50 minimum) we will win if the any two of the three top contenders finish first and second, or first and third.
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Win contenders: Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T
Other contenders: Saratoga Flash, Siege of Boston, Atone
The early pace is likely to be faster than average, as both Saratoga Flash (on the rail) and Giant Game are need-the-lead types. Others may press the pacesetters as well, and that faster than average early tempo benefits all three of the contenders nicely but probably benefits Ice Chocolat most of all. Returning from two months off on January 27 at a mile here at Gulfstream on grass, Ice Chocolat rallied impressively while five wide on the turn, going from sixth to fifth to first in the last eighth of a mile. He did so from the 10 post the same as today so with his style the outside is not a disadvantage one bit. Prior to the rest Ice Chocolat missed by a nose and by a neck in two stakes races so he fits on all counts at this level, particularly as he ran the last quarter mile in his most recent race in a rock solid 22.5 seconds.
Emmanuel won the 2023 Canadian Turf Stakes, making his second start off a layoff from the previous August to February and having won the Tampa Bay Stakes in his comeback. This year he is making his first start since last August but he proved he can win a graded stakes off a layoff last year so that is not a concern. He also won the Poker Stakes at a mile on grass in June, a grade 3 stakes like this one. He only other start of 2023 came when overmatched in the Grade 1 Fourstardave so he’s definitely a contender here, but likely a poorer bet to win as compared to Ice Chocolat because he was the 6 to 5 favorite last year and will likely be one of the favorites today.
Smokin’ T was list seen winning the nearly identical Grade 3 River City Stakes at Churchill Downs in November, John Velazquez in the saddle then as now, as well as for a win last August off a two and one-half month layoff. The layoff is similar coming into this race and the horse also fired fresh to win last May under John V so he rounds out the top win contenders in this group.
Saratoga Flash held on for second a couple of times as he might today after battling with Giant Game, so he is one of three to be considered for second on some exacta tickets. Siege of Boston has finished first or second in seven of 13 races on turf and could get up for a share, while Atone drops in class off an 11th to 4th place finish in the tougher Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational and is another who might get up to complete the exacta.
Win: Similar to the previous race the three top contenders have about the same probability to win and there is every reason to go the opposite direction of the public at large and bet one or two at the highest odds to win. taking advantage of any errors in judgement the public is going to make. Therefore I recommend waiting until about 10 minutes to post (or less) and betting whichever two of the three – Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T are at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
This should be another opportunity to gain the mathematical edge provided by using the free (and easy to use) DUTCHING tool at Amwager which allows us to set the total amount we want to win and prorates our wagers for the maximum edge.
Exactas:
Box Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T
Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T over Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T, Saratoga Flash, Siege of Boston, Atone
Trifecta: Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T over Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T, Saratoga Flash, Siege of Boston, Atone over Ice Chocolat, Emmanuel, Smokin’ T
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Top Win contender: Candy Light
Other contenders: Be My Sunshine, Walkathon, Ancient Peace
Candy Light was returning from three months off on January 27, also having moved to the barn of Saffie Joseph, Jr. since her last start in October. She won three of eight races in 2022 including the Tropical Park Oaks, but was winless last year in five races (with two runner-up efforts). She returned as a new horse in January, going three wide into the stretch and tipping out to the seven path after straightening away, moving up from fourth with an eight of a mile to go to win and draw off late. That race was on all-weather but likely it was because there wasn’t a grass race for her and no matter it was a PERFECT prep for this race as it was a 100K handicap race, not much different than this 150K stakes race. Gaffalione was aboard for the first time in victory in January and the fact he stays aboard is fantastic, not to mention that effort in January earned Candy Light a 105 Equibase Speed Figure which not only is the best last race figure in the field it is likely to be improved upon in her second start off the layoff. Additionally, her late kick will benefit from the fact that Spansive, For the Flag and Time Passage are all need-the-lead types likely to set or press a much faster than average early tempo.
Be My Sunshine, Walkathon and Ancient Peace all have decent form this year and can be part of the exacta and trifecta.
Win: Candy Light can (and should) be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Exacta: Candy Light over Be My Sunshine, Walkathon, Ancient Peace
Trifecta: Candy Light over ALL over Be My Sunshine, Walkathon, Ancient Peace
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Top Win contenders: Locked, Dornoch, Frankie’s Empire
In the 2023 running of the Fountain of Youth, Forte won off a four month rest, having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile the previous fall. The only horse in this year’s Fountain of Youth to have run in the Juvenile is Locked and although he didn’t win the Juvenile (he finished third), he may be the one to beat in this field particularly as Forte was trained by Todd Pletcher, who also conditions Locked. Locked also ran faster in two of his three route races as a two year old than any other horse in the field, evidenced by a 109 Equibase Speed Figure earned in his seven length win last September at a mile in the second start of his career. Having earned a 98 Figure winning the Breeders’ Futurity the following month, Locked ended his two year old campaign with a 100 figure effort when finishing third, a half-length behind Muth and a length and one-quarter in front of Timberlake. Muth made his three year old debut following the Juvenile, winning the San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita and Timberlake just made his 2024 debut a winning one in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn last weekend. Considering Timberlake was coming back from the same amount of time off as Locked to win a Road to the Derby race like the Fountain of Youth, and considering Locked should run even faster as a mature three year old than he did as a two year old, Locked is the one to beat in this year’s Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Dornoch is another we can expect to run even faster as a three year old than he did when last seen in the fall winning the Remsen Stakes the first week of December with a 99 Figure, having earned the same figure one race prior to that. Other horses returning from the Remsen in their three year old debuts have run exceptionally well, with Remsen runner-up Sierra Leone having captured the Risen Star Stakes two weeks ago and Remsen third place finisher Drum Roll Please winning the Jerome Stakes earlier this year. In addition, the seventh and ninth place finishers in the Remsen recently placed in the Holy Bull and Swale Stakes. Dornoch is also a full brother to Mage, who finished fourth in this race last year before finishing second in the Florida Derby then capturing the Kentucky Derby. As such, there is little doubt Dornoch has all the right physical and mental qualities to run well enough to win this race as well, but he appears slightly less probable because if both he and Locked improve at the same rate from their two year old form, Locked still may be faster.
Frankie’s Empire is the potential upsetter of note, having run this year whereas the other two main contenders have not. Frankie’s Empire enters the Fountain of Youth off a career-best effort in the Swale Stakes four weeks ago at Gulfstream Park. The colt returned from a two month layoff in late December, earning a then career-best 89 figure with a strong win. Improving nicely in the Swale, Frankie’s Empire displayed an impressive turn of foot to go from fourth on the far turn and to the lead in the stretch before drawing off late to earn a new career-best 94 figure. If he were to improve by a similar margin to a 99 figure, Frankie’s Empire would be in range of Dornoch’s last two figures of 2023, but Frankie’s Empire might even improve further. This is because he’s bred to excel in a two-turn race like this one. His sire is Classic Empire, winner of the 2016 Breeders’ Futurity (the same race Locked won last year) and also the 2017 Arkansas Derby, with a lot of stamina provided by his dam’s family because Dixie Union is the damsire. As such, I would not count out Frankie’s Empire as a strong contender in the race.
Win: Although Locked and Dornoch have a strong probability to win, neither is likely to offer value for a win bet.
Frankie’s Empire will offer necessary return for the risk and can be bet to win at odds of 5 to 1 or more.
Exactas:
Frankie’s Empire is 10 to 1 or higher odds near post time, we should consider an exacta (even for $1) of ALL over Frankie’s Empire as it is much better than a place bet.
Then I would also play exacta boxes of Frankie’s Empire and Locked as well as Frankie’s Empire and Dornoch
Additional exactas of Locked and Dornoch over Frankie’s Empire are also warranted.
Trifecta: ($0.50)
Locked and Dornoch over ALL over Frankie’s Empire
If we are going to play the exacta of Locked and Dornoch over Frankie’s Empire, this inexpensive Trifecta is a good play as well because in the event one of the two favorites wins, and the other does NOT finish second (and a longshot does), with Frankie’s Empire finishing third the ticket could be very profitable.
The post Key Races & Bets for Saturday March 2nd, 2024 appeared first on AmWager | Online Horse Betting.
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