09
Nov

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, November 10

Juvenile Fillies Sprint Stakes – Race 5 at Gulfstream Park West- Post Time 2 PM Eastern

Lovesick opens at 9 to 2 odds and if those odds hold up, or even if she drifts down to about 2 to 1, the odds could prove to be a gift as I think she's an absolute standout in this eight horse field of Florida breds. In her debut on August 19, Lovesick made short work of a similar field when leading but lapped-on in the early stages and continuing powerfully to the wire in front by a length and one-half. The 80 Equibase Figure doesn't do justice to how well she ran and now three months later, more mature physically and mentally, she's not facing much tougher than she did over the summer as she beat "open" (not restricted) company that day and is facing statebreds here. This gal is bred to be a good one, as three of her siblings on the dam's side are winners, two of them stakes winners, including her full brother Patternrecognition (4 for 10) who won the G1 Kelso Stakes this year. With Lopez riding and little if any other early pace in the race, Lovesick should blast out on top and never look back.

Bets: Lovesick to win at 3 to 2 or higher odds, a true low odds overlay win bet.

 

Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes – Race 8 at Gulfstream Park West - Post Time 3:36 PM Eastern

Decorated Ace is already a stakes winner, on grass, at a mile, which are the identical conditions to this race, with one exception. The exception is the stakes race Decorated Ace won, the Sorority Stakes at Monmouth on September 1, was an "Open" race and this is a race restricted to Florida breds. She ran poorly in her only start following that win, when overmatched in the Grade 2 Miss Grillo Stakes (won by eventual Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Newspaperofrecord), so facing much easier and having proven herself capable under all these conditions, Decorated Ace has a nice shot to win, and to make us a profit as she opens at 6 to 1.

Likewise, Vow to Recover, who starts at 10 to 1 odds, is another to be greatly respected here. As with Decorated Ace, Vow to Recover will benefit nicely from a hot early pace battle between Lovely Luvy and Jolie Bay, who open as the two favorites at 3 to 1 and 5 to 2, respectively, and who are vulnerable favorites because of the likelihood neither will get the front to themselves in the early stages. Vow to Recover tried turf and two-turns for the very first time one month ago and took to the grass like a duck takes to water, rallying from seventh to draw off late over this course at Gulfstream Park West under Paco Lopez, who rides right back. The filly has room to improve in her second start on turf and should be flying late.

Bets: Decorated Ace and Vow to Recover to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

Trifectas (instead of exactas): Vow to Recover and Decorated Ace over Vow to Recover and Decorated Ace over ALL

Then play the two contenders in case they come in fist and third (since the above bet covers them coming in first and second): Vow to Recover and Decorated Ace over ALL over Vow to Recover and Decorated Ace.

Doubles: Vow to Recover and Decorated Ace in Race 8 with Yes I'll Go, Shanghai Starlet, Oola Gal, Starship Bonita, Heiressall and Ms Meshak in Race 9.

Also Vow to Recover and Decorated Ace in Race 8 with Yes I'll Go and Shanghai Starlet in Race 9.

Millions Distaff Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park West - Post Time 4:06 PM Eastern

 

Yes I'll Go is one of five contenders, in a 10 horse field, but with no strong favorite it can be a profitable race for betting purposes. Yes I'll Go opens at the second highest odds (10/1) of the quintet and that doesn't make sense because we can easily draw a line through her last three past performances and look to her fourth back as the race she can run today to win. Her last race was on turf and therefor irrelevant. Her second race back was irrelevant because a horse fell in front of her and she was steadied hard to avoid falling herself. Her third race back was irrelevant as she was ridden badly, dueling for the lead, and tired late against multiple stakes winner Curlin's Approval, who would be the odds-on favorite if running in this race. FOUR races back, on July 12, Yes I'll Go stalked in third early and won going away, at this seven furlong trip. She did the same three races before that in April and she won on this course at Gulfstream Park West previously. The key to a big effort is leading jockey Lopez taking over and a strong quartet of workouts over the track in preparation for the race.

Shanghai Starlet opens at 9 to 2 odds and although much lower than 10/1 on Yes I'll Go they are HUGE for this horse trained by Todd Pletcher. She won three of five races on dirt after her turf debut in March, including a win in the Panama City Stakes, a race nearly identical to this. Zayas was up for that win and the win that preceded it, both at the distance of a mile around one turn, so she'll love this seven furlong trip. She ran poorly in her most recent start but that was completely irrelevant as it was on grass. Back on dirt, with pace to chase as Heavens Pulpit goes way too fast for her own good, Shanghai Starlet can repeat her Panama City effort for the win here.

Oola Gal, Starship Bonita, Heiressall and Ms Meshak are four other win contenders and none of them should be a surprise if victorious, even Ms Meshak (who opens at 12/1). Oola Gal finished second in the restricted Barely Even Stakes in August before a fourth of 10 finish in the similar Sheer Drama Stakes in September, but it was her winning effort one before the Barely Even when drawing off to win by a couple lengths that gives her a shot to be competitive here if repeated. Starship Bonita was third behind Shanghai Starlet in the Panama City but won the Sheer Drama next time out on September 8, with Ms Meshak clearly second in that 10 horse field. Heiressall is going for her fourth straight win, the most recent over the track. She's never raced this far but won at 6 1/2 furlongs so should get the trip and she's a talented filly. As previously pointed out, Ms Meshak finished second in an identical stakes race last out and as she was first and second in her two starts prior to that her 12/1 starting odds are out of line.

Bets: Yes I'll Go and Shanghai Starlet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Consider an additional win bet, for a smaller amount than on Yes I'll Go and Shanghai Starlet, on any of the other four – Oola Gal, Starship Bonita, Heiressall and Ms Meshak, preferably just the one that goes to post at the highest odds, at 4 to 1 odds or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

Exacta: Yes I'll Go and Shanghai Starlet over Yes I'll Go, Shanghai Starlet, Oola Gal, Starship Bonita, Heiressall and Ms Meshak.

Optionally, play the reverse of that exacta, which is Yes I'll Go, Shanghai Starlet, Oola Gal, Starship Bonita, Heiressall and Ms Meshak over Yes I'll Go and Shanghai Starlet.

Doubles: Yes I'll Go, Shanghai Starlet, Oola Gal, Starship Bonita, Heiressall and Ms Meshak in Race 9 with He'll Do, Mega Bucks, Lucky Mike and Stirling Drive in Race 10.

Also Yes I'll Go, Shanghai Starlet, Oola Gal, Starship Bonita, Heiressall and Ms Meshak in Race 9 with He'll Do and Mega Bucks in Race 10.

Juvenile Turf Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park West - Post Time 4:36 PM Eastern

He'll Do took to turf like a duck takes to water last month when trying grass for the first time in his second career start. He led from start to finish because no one wanted the lead but the slow fractions and pace figures, particularly his final quarter, tell me he can run just as well from off the pace. Keibar Coa rode him last out and rides back for the Proctor Stable and the colt goes from "Open" (not restricted) company to Florida breds only so it's really not a raise in class as this nine horse field is composed of FOUR horses which are still maidens and three others who have won just once the same as he has. Likely to improve nicely off his second career start, first on turf and first around two turns, He'll Do will do nicely as a win bet as he opens at 4 to 1.

Mega Bucks is the other horse with the bulk of the probability to win, opening at 3 to1 but NOT the favorite as that will be Stirling Drive. Mega Bucks, like He'll Do, ran awful in his debut on dirt but ran HUGE when trying turf for the first time as he missed by a neck on the wire. Rested seven weeks, Mega Bucks returned on 10/27 and rallied from 8th in a very mature fashion to win by a neck on the wire. With the rail to save ground and with Zayas riding back after being up for the first time in victory last month, over this course, Mega Bucks just needs to find a place to run in the stretch and he may be passing them all for the score.

Lucky Mike (12/1 morning line) and Stirling Drive (2/1 morning line) are the other horses which can win or finish second. Lucky Mike finished fast from 10th to 4th, beaten just a length and one-half, in the race Mega Bucks won on 10/27. Although he's a maiden facing winners he should be good for a share at the least so has to be used on exacta tickets we play and we must bet at least a couple of bucks on him to win so we don't kick ourselves later should he post the upset. Stirling Drive can win but shouldn't open at 2 to 1. He ran exactly the same, no better, than He'll Do and Mega Bucks when winning his 2nd career start, first on grass, in September, then he finished third in an "open" stakes race at the end of the same month. However, although he did have some traffic trouble early in an allowance race over the course on 10/25, there was still no excuse for his 4th place finish and there's no telling if he will improve or regress in this situation.

Bets: He'll Do and Mega Bucks to win at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

Exactas: Box He'll Do, Mega Bucks, Lucky Mike and Stirling Drive.