12
Apr

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, April 13, 2019

Important Note: There is an all stakes Pick 4 at Keeneland on Saturday which starts in Race 7, the Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes. Because that race is my free race on the Keeneland web site, there’s no reason to duplicate it here. You can get it by clicking anywhere on this link. You can play the double from the win contenders in race 7 to the win contenders in race 8 below, as well as a pick 3 linking the win contenders in races 7, 8 and 9.

 

Giant’s Causeway Stakes - Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern

Excessivespending is one of four win contenders I feel will take advantage of what could be a very hot early pace scenario as Seeknthegiantpearl, Student Body, Luvin Bullies and Morticia all have getting to the lead from the start at any cost on their minds. Excessivespending won a very similar stakes at Fair Grounds in February and won a classified allowance race on the Keeneland turf at this trip last fall, Leparoux up then as now, so could be the one making the last move to win.

La Dame Blanche couldn’t pass Student Body when second in a stakes like this one last month at Fair Grounds but did beat Excessivespending home by a neck. Student Body won’t have an easy lead today and like Excessivespending, La Dame Blanche has a win at the trip on the Keenleand grass (also last October) so would be no surprise if running well enough to win. Considering she opens at 12/1, even though Excessivespending opens at 6/1, we should be making a win bet on her as well if those odds hold up.

Surrender Now ships out of California for the strong Miller barn with a perfect 2-for-2 record in turf sprints, the last a classified allowance win where she sat in fourth early and pulled off late. Her career best 100 Equibase figure from that race is a bit shy of the 109 to 111 figures Excessivespending and La Dame Blanche have earned in similar races but she’s making her first start as a four year old and could run even better than when last seen in August. As she opens at 7/2 it’s unlikely she will be a good win bet but must be used in any exactas and multiple race tickets we play such as the pick 3 and pick 4.

A Little Bit Me is another with a good closing style to benefit from the hot early pace scenario. She won off the claim by Baltas at Santa Anita in January with a rally from fifth then only managed third but wasn’t disgraced as she was beaten six length while the winner won by almost five. She hasn’t run as well in flat turf sprints compared to the downhill sprints at Santa Anita, but she’s in good form, consistent, and has the right running style to be part of the exacta at the least.

Bets:

Win Bets: Excessivespending to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

La Dame Blanche to win at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Excessivespending, La Dame Blanche, Surrender Now and A Little Bit Me.

Doubles: Excessivespending, La Dame Blanche, Surrender Now and A Little Bit Me in race 8 with Anothertwistafate, Sueno and Shang race 9. Then ALSO Excessivespending, La Dame Blanche, Surrender Now and A Little Bit Me in race 8 with Anothertwistafate in race 9.

Pick 3:

Race 8 - Excessivespending, La Dame Blanche, Surrender Now and A Little Bit Me.

Race 9 - Anothertwistafate, Sueno and Shang.

Race 10 – Bellavais, Rushing Fall and Rymska

 

Stonestreet Lexington Stakes - Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:30 PM Eastern

In my opinion, three horses combined have the bulk of the probability to win and they are Anothertwistafate, Sueno and Shang. That being said, Anothertwistafate sticks out a bit over the other two and that’s the horse to concentrate on for most of our double, pick 3 and pick 4 tickets, particularly as he opens as the 2 to 1 favorite. Certainly we should use Sueno and Shang on some of those multi-race tickets as well.

Anothertwistafate has run two “A” races in a row (first with a career-best 102 figure then followed by a 103 figure effort) and unless another horse jumps up big time he’s going to earn enough points (combined with those he has) to punch his ticket to the Derby. He dominated in three straight in December, January and February, including a seven length win in the El Camino Real Derby, all on the all-weather surface at Golden Gate. Then he was sent to the Sunland Derby and although jockey Juan Hernandez is among the top jockeys in Northern California, he was outridden by one of the best in John Velazquez on winner Cutting Humor. Even though Cutting Humor and Velazquez slipped away in the stretch, Anothertwistafate was cutting into the margin in the last strides to come up a neck short on the wire and with the jockey change to Javier Castellano and with the colt’s last two efforts likely to be improved upon, he’s the one to beat. Another benefit Anothertwistafate will have is a likely pace battle between stretching out Hawaiian Noises and need-the-lead type Zenden, who has to go from the nine post position. This allows Castellano to get a great trip in third in the early stages and move for the lead in this race which ends at the first of two finish lines at Keeneland.

Sueno finished second in the Sham Stakes in California in January (with a career best 99 Equibase figure) then second again in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in February before a disappointing third place finish in the Louisiana Derby last month. I say disappointing because he was second for most of the race and weakened late. The cut back to a mile and one-sixteenth helps his chances as does the pace scenario and if Anothertwistafate doesn’t fire he can win. The same holds true for Shang, who is going for his fifth straight win. However, the previous four were all against Louisiana Breds only. The last two were around two turns and stakes, and Irad Ortiz, Jr takes the call. One before last he earned a 102 Equibase figure, on par with the 102 and 103 Anothertwistafate earned in his two most recent races, but he regressed to a 91 figure although he won easily after that. He should be close to the pace as well and could be moving at the same time as Anothertwistafate, making the race very interesting to the wire.

Bets:

Win Bets: Anothertwistafate to win at odds of 9 to 5 or more.

For a smaller amount, Sueno to win at 3 to 1 or more and Shang to win at 4 to 1 or more.

Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Anothertwistafate, Sueno and Shang.

Doubles: Anothertwistafate, Sueno and Shang in race 9 with Bellavais, Rushing Fall and Rymska in race 10. Then also Anothertwistafate in race 9 with Bellavais, Rushing Fall and Rymska in race 10.

 

Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes – Race 10 at Keeneland - Post Time 6:03 PM Eastern

Bellavais, who opens at 8/1, looks every bit as probable to win at Rushing Fall (6/5) and Rymska (5/2). Although a stakes winner at the age of three, she came into her own last fall when moved to the Pletcher barn, winning a classified allowance race at a mile on grass with a career-best 109 Equibase figure then two later taking the Grade 3 Marshua’s River Stakes at Gulfstream at this 1 1/16 mile turf trip when improving to a new best 112 figure. Last time out and off the Marshua’s River win and two months off, Bellavais wasn’t disgraced at all when third, beaten ¾ of a length for second with the winner another ½ length ahead in first. The runner-up came back to win the Sand Springs Stakes recently and if this gal repeats either of those three efforts cited, all in similar company, she can post the upset here.

There’s little doubt how good Rushing Fall is and how much she loves this course, as she’s 3-for-3 over it including the Grade 1 QE II Challenge Cup last fall. She fires big fresh and Brown and Castellano know how to get her happy and ready to win. She has no knocks but then again she is facing older for the first time ad her best efforts last year yielded 108 figures which are good enough to win but NOT superior to the best figures of the other two contenders.

Rymska, trained by Brown the same as Rushing Fall, is 7 for 13 in her career including four graded stakes. She won the Grade 2 Hillsborough Stakes last month with Ortiz up then as now and she has showed up in all but one of her last eight races by finishing first or second so her chances of winning can’t be discounted for even a second.

Bets:

Win bets: Bellavais to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more.

Exacta: Box Bellavais, Rushing Fall and Rymska.

 

 

Bonus: Arkansas Derby

Although Oaklawn Park if one of a few tracks you can’t wager on via the excellent wagering site Amwager, I thought I would include my analysis here anyway because of the implications for the Kentucky Derby.

Galilean will be my top choice to win this year’s Arkansas Derby as I’m expecting big improvement off his third place finish last month in the first division of the Rebel Stakes won by Long Range Toddy. Galilean nearly won his first four races, all stakes, including his debut, as his only defeat in those races came by a neck in the second start of his career. Galilean closed out his two year old campaign with a nine length win when tried in a route for the first time in the King Glorious Stakes. He returned off two months of rest in February and won the California Cup Derby as if he had never been away, winning by four and one-half lengths. His next start came in the Rebel, in which he stalked the pace early in third, moved up to battle neck and neck for about a half mile before settling for third behind Long Range Toddy and Improbable. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer takes blinkers off Galilean for the Arkansas Derby and based on his last effort, that may be the ticket to big improvement off the 105 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Rebel. The removal of blinkers will help the colt to see on all sides as well as behind him, and that could enable his competitive juices to kick in for a new top effort good enough to post the upset.

Long Range Toddy gets the extreme outside post but that’s not a concern because of the expected faster than average early pace in the race. Grey Attempt stretches out from six furlongs and has run very fast early in his previous two route races. One Flew South adds blinkers, which should cause him to show a lot of early speed, and Jersey Agenda is a need-the-lead type who has to go fast early to gain position from his 10 post. All that early pace and positioning allows Long Range Toddy to drop into a great trip possibly just a couple of paths wide going into the first turn, similar to where he was early in the Rebel, in which he rallied from fourth in the last eighth of a mile to earn a career-best 109 Figure. Prior to that, Long Range Toddy had traffic trouble with a quarter of a mile to run and still managed third. With three wins and one second place finish from his four other route races, it’s obvious Long Range Toddy shows up every time with his “A” game and as such he is a strong contender in this year’s Arkansas Derby.

Improbable was returning from three months off in the Rebel and had his schedule re-adjusted when his home base of Santa Anita was closed temporarily. A perfect three-for-three in 2018 including a sharp win in the Los Alamitos Futurity with a 103 figure, Improbable still earned a new best 109 figure in the Rebel when coming up a neck shy of Long Range Toddy on the wire in spite of the time off. Likely to improve in his second start off the layoff, Improbable certainly can run well enough to win, but he is likely to be the betting favorite because of perceived improvement in his second start of the year and because his trainer is Bob Baffert. However, it can reasonably be assumed Long Range Toddy can take another step forward as well and potentially deny his foe another win on the wire.

Omaha Beach won the second division of the Rebel last month, earning the best last race figure in the field (110), his fifth straight improvement in speed figures since his debut last summer. The Rebel was his first two-turn race on dirt and he met the challenge with flying colors as he moved up comfortable from third in the early stages to lead by two lengths in the stretch before holding off Game Winner by a nose. Game Winner returned to run in the Santa Anita Derby last weekend and was once again denied by a narrow margin by Roadster. Game Winner’s speed figure regressed to 106 in the Santa Anita Derby and so although Omaha Beach may continue his pattern of improvement that is something to note.

Bets:

Win Bets: Galilean (7) to win at odds of 7 to 2, adding a place bet at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

Long Range Toddy (11) to win at odds of 7 to 2.

Exacta: Box Galilean (7), Long Range Toddy (11), Improbable (1) and Omaha Beach (3).

Trifecta: Box Galilean (7), Long Range Toddy (11), Improbable (1) and Omaha Beach (3).