We are a little more than halfway through the racing year. The three year old male division is still pretty much up in the air. It is ripe for someone to step up and take all the honors.
We had a different winner in all the Triple Crown races, including a rare disqualification in the Kentucky Derby. We lost the winner who was put up, Country House. The horse who was disqualified, Maximum Security lost a prep race for the Haskell. Omaha Beach, the early Derby favorite scratched and is just now returning to training. Nobody has really stepped up and asserted any dominance of yet. That can change fast however.
Maximum Security runs in the Haskell on Saturday. I won’t be betting the Haskell, but I will be watching closely to see how things may look going forward. I expect a rebound good race from Maximum Security and without actually handicapping the race I suspect he will win. I don’t think Servis will send him out short or tired again, at least not now.
I love being in the minority in the Sport of Kings. Not much pleases me more then liking a horse not many others give a chance or are talking about. That happened in this year’s Kentucky Derby when I landed on Code of Honor. Again, I don’t mind being in the minority when I say this; I believe if it didn’t rain on the first Saturday in May he would have won the Derby. We will never know the answer to that. Code of Honor impressed me in his last race at Belmont. I like how he split horses in the stretch without hesitation and accelerated. Derby stuff wink wink. If he wins the Jim Dandy and Travers he is in the picture.
I don’t know what to expect from Omaha Beach coming back. I’m not sold he moves forward from where he was in the spring. Logic says with his breathing issue behind him he should, but is this a logical game?
Tacitus is another who can really step up and make noise in the division. He checks a lot of boxes on his resume. If he can win a major race to pair with his Wood Memorial victory, he can be heard from as a possible three year old champ.
I am not as fast as most to discredit a crop and label it weak or bad. I don’t think we truly know that yet. There is a lot more racing to be done and parody doesn’t automatically equate to weakness. Let’s see how that all plays out and how any of these may do against older horses a bit later in the year.
For now, most of this is subjective. Who knows it may remain that way. This column can age poorly or brilliantly. I think the two most likely to assert themselves in the second half of the year are Code of Honor and Tacitus. The filly Guarana can be better than all of them if she can strut her stuff around two turns the way she does around one. We will find that out this weekend barring a heat wave.
One mystery to me is where has Monomoy Girl been and why? It’s far from too late for her to be a major force in her division but Midnight Bisou and Elate really have the jump on her.
This is a good weekend to avoid the outside heat, log onto your AmWager account and create a different type of heat. We should have plenty of opportunities for some big swings. Enjoy and get lucky!
When I refer to “sheets” I am referring to the Ragozins or Thoro-Graph. While both are speed figures there is something that separates them from the rest. They are not “raw” speed figure numbers. They encompass trip, things like ground loss, wide, inside, and more. Buyers, and most of the others are raw numbers that purport to tell us how fast a horse ran. I can look at the charts and see that.
There was a time, not all that long ago when you’d see a horse on the sheets that was flat out faster than the rest. Many times this horse would not be the favorite, and often would not have the best or fastest raw figures or Beyers. Many won at nice prices. You can peruse past performances for hours today and you could be hard pressed to find such a horse. If you do find a sheet standout, they will likely be a short price.
Like everything else to be successful and stay on top you must adapt. Things change. Today many more people use the sheets, so the fast sheet horses get a lot of play. Info is shared and sold reducing the price even more. Horses have more parody as well it seems. More trainers are taking more edges and more horses have similar figures and even pattens. Are the sheets still valuable? Absolutely. You just have to read and use them correctly for today’s game.
It was never as simple as who has the lowest or fastest number will win. It was always more about patterns and moving forward or regressing or bouncing as we like to day. That’s a conversation for another day and column. Today we will look at a way to use the sheets to help us make some money.
Knowing a horse likely won’t win can be as much of an edge as knowing one who likely will win. Even more sometimes especially if the horse is a short price. With how the game has evolved, and with the emphasis we have on multi race wagers like pick 3’s, 4’s, 5’s and 6’s being able to eliminate or toss horses can be a significant edge. Sheets can help here.
When I read the sheets l like to look for horses who have two things going against them.
1- They are too slow on the sheets for the competition.
2- They don’t have a pattern or trend signifying a strong enough forward move to be competitive against the competition.
Finding one of these, sometimes even at shorter odds, is easier today than finding a faster horse “sheetwise” at longer odds. Rarely will a horse who has both these checkmarks beat you or knock you out of a multi race wager.
Eliminating horses who likely won’t knock you out of a multi race sequence is invaluable. It reduces your investment and also can allow you to add that live bomb difference maker. It lets you avoid the costly “all” button.
Most will still look at the sheets searching for that faster horse. I like to go the other way. Going against the grain and masses is never a bad idea in a pari-mutual system.
We have talked about some good angles of late. The more you have in your arsenal the better your chance to get an edge and separation. That’s what you need to help get you in position to beat this tough but skill game.
Let’s not think it is hopeless to find a faster horse on the sheets. It isn’t but if you want a faster horse at a price you will have to really know your patterns. Patterns repeat. You have to watch for changing or similar conditions when looking at patterns. If you can spot a forward move others miss and that forward move would put the horse ahead of the rest then you have your play.
We never stop evolving in this sport. It’s one of the great things about it.
It is going to be an interesting summer in our game.
I remember a time not too long ago when the Saratoga meet was anticipated with as much excitement as any sport could bring to its fans. While I am sure it is still that way for many, for others it just is not the same. I’ll be the first to admit that if you were not around and in the game back when Saratoga was the August place to be as opposed to the summer place to be then you have no real frame of reference, and it is still an anticipated and exciting meet. If you were however, then you likely recognize that an aftermarket spoiler has been put on a red vintage Ferrari. You just don’t do that. It’s a rare case of when an addition intended as an enhancement devalues something.
I attended every Saratoga meet in its entirety for the first 30 years of my life. Many others in part thereafter. It was absolutely the place everyone in the game wanted to be and where they wanted to win. I hit my largest Pick 6 there in excess of half a million dollars. There were plenty of others over 100K as well. I made my first significant bet, while pretty young, on It’s In The Air to upset Davona Dale in the Alabama. As an owner, I was lucky enough to run one horse there, and she won. One for one is how I’ll keep that record, at least for now. I never thought my excitement for the Spa would wane.
While still a great meet by comparison to others, the changes to the game, racing in general, the times and the town have relegated it to just a small piece of what it was. Modernization and technology do not always improve everything they touch. Vintage is vintage for a reason. Saratoga was vintage.
I think the main issue in changing the quality of the meet lies in the multiple extensions to it. For a long time, and through its heyday, it was four weeks of six days of racing. That amounted to a 24 day meet of high-quality thoroughbreds competing at what was recognized as the toughest circuit with the best outfits, trainers, and riders. Maiden Special Weight races featured many homebred horses from powerhouse farms and stables that wanted to outdo one another on the track, not in the sales ring and not join in partnerships. The competition was fierce, and so were the wagering opportunities with many less gimmicks or exotic bets. Allowance races were preps for bigger and better and not also optional claimers like we see today. There were very few if any maiden claiming races, and just a couple of lower level claiming races. While the sport probably can’t sustain such a meet today, trying over almost two months certainly changes what Saratoga was. It really was the Sport of Kings, and when you were there you felt like one.
Whitney Day, Alabama Day, and of course Travers Day are still strong. The rest of the meet has far too many cards that could be run during the week at one of NYRA’s downstate tracks. It was never that way. Sometimes preserving is better than advancing.
The late pick 5 being open to all bettors, not just NYRA Bets account holders and on track players, is one of a very limited few welcome additions. The pool which suffered under the previous restrictions will likely grow significantly. This is something that can really present some great opportunities. I wish it were a $2 wager, but hey, at this point we take what we can get in this game.
I am not sure what to expect at Del Mar, another great meet that is also not what it was. Del Mar has publicly admitted they expect a horse shortage, limiting field sizes and race days. If they follow Santa Anita and ban Jerry Hollendorfer that will make things even tougher on the racing office to fill races and get the condition book to go. Santa Anita became a rough place to wager this last meet, and there is a good chance Del Mar has a lot of pass days for me as well. We will just have to see how it plays out.
We are all awaiting word from the Breeders’ Cup on whether they stay at Santa Anita or move to Churchill Downs or even somewhere else. You would have to think this is the main point on the agenda for their meeting in the 27th. My guess is it remains at Santa Anita. First, it would be tough to change venues both contractually and logistically at this point. You also have all the prepaid flights and accommodations to think about. Second, while Santa Anita might not have handled the crisis of the fatal breakdowns as good as it could have, many of the changes they’ve implemented are consistent with the Breeders’ Cup philosophies and also European racing. I don’t think the Breeders’ Cup will be so fast on the draw to punish them for that. All that said, if they do move it I will be far from shocked.
Stay tuned, it is going to be a long summer.
June 21st, 2019
By: Jonathan Stettin
Last week we got to see the first time in the short career of Maximum Security that he did not cross the wire first. To many, it was an unexpected shocker, but should it have been? We'll look at that in the recent content of angles we've been discussing to help identify scores and bet against races alike.
We have recently talked about bank roll management, two year olds progressing past their earlier figures, and today, we will talk about a widely used but often confused term, "the bounce."
While the stumble at the start didn't help Maximum Security, he was ripe to regress. Knowing when a horse is ready to regress or bounce is a strong advantage or edge, especially if the horse is a favorite.
Maximum Security ran a very hard race while still inexperienced and lightly raced in the Kentucky Derby. He ran harder and further than he ever had before under less than ideal conditions. His trainer was noncommittal about his run in the Pegasus until he actually entered. He has even publicly said blood was drawn on Maximum Security as he was not quite right. These factors all point to a regression or bounce. Let's define bounce. A bounce is when a horse goes backward or runs significantly worse than they have in their last start or even last few starts.
Most horses will regress or bounce off a race where they exceeded their previous top performance by a decent measurable speed figure or just flat out performance. You don't need to use speed figures to spot a bounce, but they certainly can accelerate the process.
Sure some horses can regress and win, and Maximum Security certainly looked like he could be one of those in the field he faced in the Pegasus. That said, do you really want a short price on a horse that is not peaking or going forward when you have nicer price options on horses that are?
When looking for a horse to bounce, thus bet against at a short price, here are some things you can watch for:
1- A horse who ran significantly faster than ever before in their last start.
2- A horse who has strung together a series of faster than their norm races.
3- A horse who appeared to visually run hard or work very hard in their last start.
4- A horse who is coming back faster than they normally do, or that their trainer likes to do or usually does.
5- A horse who ran well last out but is now being asked to do something they've shown in the past they do not excel at.
Are there other indicators or tells, sure and you should pay attention to any you have learned to recognize. One thing to be careful of is the "easy win" not telegraphing a possible bounce. Some years ago, and I have written about this before, I watched a race with Bobby Frankel. His horse jogged under wraps with Jerry Bailey up and went really fast. Nonetheless, it was done handily, easily with ears pricked up. Bobby cursed. I asked what could possibly be wrong with that race?
He said plainly, "too fast." Explaining further, "This was not the race I was pointing to, and now I have to worry about a bounce."
I replied, "Why it was so easy."
Here is where I was schooled and went into sponge mode and made many a score because of it. He told me when a horse runs fast, real fast, no matter how easy they do it, how it looks, or how they act after it before their next start, you always have to fear they will regress. He explained a fast race is almost always taxing regardless of how it may look to us. I never forgot that lesson, so to speak and it served me well many times.
The bounce is a real angle. It happens. Horses are not machines and form cycles last indefinitely very rarely. Looking for the bounce and accurately spotting it can land you on some nice winners and keep you away from some short priced losers. That's a win-win right there.
June 14th, 2019
True or False
By: Jonathan Stettin
A few years ago, a two year old named Caledonia Red barely made it to my radar in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in my early work. By the time the race came up, I made and cashed a nice bet. It was a true track bias I recognized that got me there. A true track bias is a gift that just keeps giving. Not only can you capitalize on one race day if you catch it, but you can bet with an edge on those who ran well against it and downgrade those who ran with it. The whole key is knowing a true track bias from a false or perceived one.
A bias can mean different things to different handicappers. I define a track bias this way:
A trend in the track that helps horses run better than they would have if they ride it and worse then they would have if they are against it. Simply said a bias can make horses who would not have won on a fair track win, and horses who would have won on a fair track lose. Anything less to me is not a true bias. It would be hard to capitalize off anything less than my definition. Additionally, although tracks can change throughout a card, a true bias will more often than not hold for the bulk of the day. When they don’t you must ask yourself if it could have possibly been a false bias. Chances are it was.
Players are fast on the draw to label a track biased, often incorrectly at least by my definition. A bias comes in a few different forms. It can be an inside or outside bias which relates to a portion of the racetrack. It can be down the crown of the track as we often see in the mud. It can be a speed bias or a closers bias. Sometimes you will see more than one type of bias together, but obviously they can’t conflict with each other, or you are back to a false bias.
An excellent example of bettors being prematurely fast on the bias draw was last weekends Belmont Stakes card. The bias talk came early and often. It was all over social media and the tv broadcasts. Trainers even voiced concerns about how the track was playing would affect their horses. They were all wrong, and no this is not subjective. Not only were they calling it a speed biased racetrack but they were also saying it was a rail biased racetrack. A good deal of this gibberish began after only the second dirt race was run. That’s an impressive assessment if you are right. Were they? You tell me.
Sea Foam won the first race on the card. He stalked the pace, did not make the pace, and made an early inside move — a stalking trip in the opener.
The next dirt race had the bias callers out in full force. The fact it was just the second dirt race on the card did not temper them. Majid went to the lead in relatively easy splits. He went Wire to Wire. He should have. He got away uncontested and set soft splits on a very fast but fair racetrack. One of the biggest lures to a false bias is not realizing why a horse trips out and wins. With the way things unfolded Majid was supposed to win.
The next dirt race was won by Midnight Bisou who not only came from off the pace but was last at one point. Nonetheless, you had analysts, trainers, and people all over social media saying you had or be on the rail with speed to win. I knew this would lead to some big edge bets on the card.
The next dirt race we saw Guarana blitz the field from slightly off the pace. It was a stalking trip. 4 races and just one Wire to Wire winner. They still screamed bias in force. On true bias days, you see 4 races and 4 Wire to Wire winners.
The next one was a classic. Hog Creek Hustle roared down the middle of the track from off the pace. He beat my “edge play” Nitrous by a long nose and Nitrous was further back and wider than he was. The reported rail and speed bias is not what cost me that bet.
Mitole took the next dirt race stalking and prompting the pace. Noteworthy McKinzie came from off the pace and had a lot of traffic trouble, or it may have been a different result but certainly would have been closer. That’s six dirt races and one Wire to Wire winner who got a lone lead and went slow on a fast track.
Sir Winston won the Belmont from off the pace. Did he spend some time saving ground on the rail? Absolutely. Did it help him? Absolutely as saving ground usually does. When good horses save ground on the rail it helps a lot. Seven dirt races and one horse goes gate to wire.
Recognizing a true bias from a false one can be lucrative. Being quick draw McGraw won’t help you be correct in that assessment.
There was a rail and speed bias on Belmont Stakes day. True or false?
June 7th, 2019
By: Jonathan Stettin
Between Friday and Saturday at Belmont, there will be an abundance of opportunities to go after a score. While this is great and what most of us wait for, it helps to have a solid plan of attack. All those opportunities and alluring races can prompt many to spread their bankrolls out to keep them in action, but if you are looking to take down a big score that might not be the best way to go. It’s not how I play it. These two days are when your money management skills get out to the test. If you don’t have them your bankroll can be put to rest.
Whether your bankroll for the weekend is $100, $1000, or $10,000 it doesn’t matter. You have to apply it in the best way to capitalize on your strongest opinion. Of course, you have to be right.
I play more aggressively than most. Using a $100 bankroll, I will take 80% of that and put that into my best spot for the weekend. I may spread the 80% across different types of wagers keying on the horse I like the best, but I won’t use any of that 80% on other horses or sequences. This puts me in position to maximize my investment on the horse I feel best about. If I am right, I will have a good majority of my bankroll on my horse, and that is how you set yourself up to score.
Many people will spread thin and want action in every race and sequence. Can they catch a big number and score? Of course. That said, in the long run, if your handicapping is solid, you will get much farther into the black column attacking who you really like best. Does it really make sense just for the sake of action to spread around and use as much of your bankroll on a horse or sequence you like a little as opposed to one you feel strongly about? I say no all day to that.
When finished handicapping I will look at the two or maybe three horses I like best. It is my nature to go after the longest prices one, and I will have to like a shorter priced one a lot more to pull me in that direction.
Using 80% of my bankroll allows me to go after every type of bet I want keying my horse. If things work out, I can hit all the exotics. If not I can hit some. Nobody and I mean nobody bets too much on a winner. It’s a sinking feeling to be right on a key horse on a big weekend like this and not capitalize. 80% of your bankroll minimizes that risk.
The other 20% is what I will use for fishing, stabs, and some lighter action. Does that at times save the day. Absolutely. It keeps one in a spot to catch that longer priced play or sequence but also leaves you strong for the major wager.
On days like these, there is always a lot more recreational and uninformed money in the pools. This is a tremendous help to us. Beat a favorite or two which should always be a goal, and your value increases significantly than what it would on say a regular day or even weekend. Use that. It can’t hurt and can only help.
We are all usually locked and loaded by now. I try and hold off final opinions as long as possible. Will the weather change? Will there be a real bias? Will someone get white hot or maybe ice cold? These intangibles can give you an edge over players who lock in early and surely over the recreational money. Take whatever edges you can get.
Log into your AmWager accounts and attack! All the best and enjoy these great cards.