Wednesday, 04 April 2018 19:49

Looking Ahead

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April 4, 2018

Looking Ahead

By: Jonathan Stettin


We have three major Kentucky Derby preps this Saturday in three different states across the country. The Wood Memorial in New York, the Santa Anita Derby in California, and the Blue Grass in Kentucky. Unfortunately, all three are in danger of being run under less than ideal conditions. Poor weather is hovering around all of those races. This really puts the connections, who have waited for these spots to get the points they need to get into the Kentucky Derby, up against it. The following Saturday we have the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes that will wrap things up and set the stage for the first Saturday in May.

 

Since the inception of the point system in 2013 all the Derby winners were undefeated in their three-year old campaigns. I don’t believe that was by accident or coincidental. Starting back in 2013 and through last year Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, and Always Dreaming all went through their respective three- year old campaigns leading to the Derby without a hiccup on the racetrack. The obvious conclusion is the point system doesn’t really allow for pointing for a race with steady progression and not being fully cranked from the onset.

 

Of all the horses trying to get to the Derby this Saturday none has more hype than Justify. This fast and talented colt will get his first real class test in the Santa Anita Derby when he faces Bolt d’ Oro, who was a leading two-year old and is also considered by many to be a top three-year old. Justify is two for two in his brief career and both starts came at three-years old. That means he has to buck the long-standing Apollo curse if he is to win the Kentucky Derby. Although that dates back pretty far by any standard, all these trends and statistics eventually go the way of the dosage index and go down. In reality, how many horses who did not race at two went into the Kentucky Derby with a legit chance? Maybe Pulpit or Curlin recently, but historically probably not that many. If you are a Justify believer I wouldn’t be worried about Apollo.

 

Justify has gotten the hype of being Bob Baffert’s best Kentucky Derby hope since he made his debut at Santa Anita in February, winning at 7 furlongs in 1:21.4. That’s fast at any track. He came back just about a month later to win at a mile over a muddy Santa Anita track in 1:35.3. He has yet to face the quality of Bolt d’ Oro but he does have that mud win and all the hype with him. Additionally, his stablemate is McKinzie. If we are to believe the hype, he is better than McKinzie and that runner gave Bolt d’ Oro all he could handle. He also has Bob Baffert in his corner. That can only help in any big race.

 

Bolt d’ Oro is battle tested. He had a rough go of it in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He literally had a war with Mckinzie last out, what resulted in McKinzie being disqualified. The two bumped turning for home and again nearing the wire but what sticks out to me is it never looked like Bolt d’ Oro was going to get by. Despite being carried out, which I remain cognizant of, I don’t believe the incident cost Bolt d’Oro the win.

 

Mick Ruis has done a fine job training Bolt d’ Oro thus far. He is now at the point on the Derby trail where things start to change. This is his first run and he does not have the experience that his chief rival, Bob Baffert, has in winning these types of races. I think that can play a part come Saturday.

 

I am a long way from handing the roses to Justify, or anyone else for that matter. There is plenty of time for that. The race on Saturday has not even been drawn yet so no detailed homework has been done. Strictly by the naked eye and experience, I will be a lot more surprised to see Bolt d’ Oro in the Santa Anita winners circle on Saturday than I will Justify. I think it is likely Justify punches his ticket to Louisville with a win and heads to town looking to bump Apollo as an undefeated three-year old with no starts at two. Getting that done is another matter altogether.

 

Wednesday, 28 March 2018 16:00

Everyone in the Pool

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March 28, 2018

Everyone in the Pool

By: Jonathan Stettin


It’s an exciting time of year in the Sport of Kings. The final Kentucky Derby preps are upon us. The Run for the Roses is shaping up to be an interesting contest with possibly two horses having a chance of knocking out the Apollo curse, by winning the Derby without having raced at two-years old. The Dubai World Cup is Saturday and pits West Coast, the heir apparent to the top older horse in training in the US, against Talismanic the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. Saturday is also Florida Derby day at Gulfstream Park and that major Kentucky Derby prep will anchor a stakes filled card to end the Championship meet.

Something else will be happening at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. There will be a mandatory payout of the Rainbow 6 pool provided there is no single ticket winner between now and then. You can rest assured there are sharks in the water trying to spoil the big plans for the Rainbow 6 on Saturday, which if it carries could create a record Pick 6 pool. The pool has been “snaked” before leading up to a mandatory payout, but I have a feeling that won’t happen this go around, although I will admit I’d love to play the spoiler.

With the carryover between 4 and 5 million, actually closer to 5 on Saturday, we should see a pool somewhere between 20-25 million dollars. The fact it is Florida Derby day will help grow the pool, as Gulfstream will be a main focal point of horse racing across the country. I can see the pool going higher than the amount I projected, depending on the card, which has not yet been drawn.

The Rainbow 6, at a 20-cent minimum wager, has both supporters and detractors. I am a supporter, as I think any potentially life changing wager is good for the game and the players. As someone who has hit Pick 6’s from 100-500k more than my fair share of times and been alive for upward of a million dollars to one horse. I can say it is a thrilling wager that can be satisfying and obviously rewarding when you’re right. It can also be devastating when you are wrong, or worse get beat even when you zig zagged correctly. Which is why, under normal circumstances, the Pick 6 is not for everyone and certainly not for the faint of heart.

Saturday is not going to be normal circumstances, which is why everyone should be in the pool. Both regular Pick 6 players and even non-Pick 6 players should be going after this one.

A pool of 20-25 million dollars negates any argument about takeout. Takeout won’t matter regardless of one’s position on it. The 20-cent minimum, along with the massive pool and mandatory payout, levels the playing field considerably for smaller and especially medium monetary bettors. The big syndicates and robotic partnerships don’t have their normal huge edge over everyone else in the pool. This is your chance to compete with them and win with a few hundred-dollar ticket, with what may cost them thousands to win.

Saturday is like an enormous Pick 6 pool with a gracious discount for the bettor. We don’t get discounts often, so when we do, I say seize them. I look at it this way. I can buy 10k of coverage in the sequence for 2k. Or 2k coverage for $200. This is both a great equalizer and opportunity. A well-structured ticket, with a fair investment and some solid opinions, has an excellent chance of winning a more than fair return.

While the likelihood of a single ticket on Saturday is improbable, it really should not matter. Even if the day chalks out, which of course we all hope it doesn’t, you could wind up okay. There won’t be many, if any, single ticket possibilities going in, so I wouldn’t go in or approach it with that goal. I’d go in looking to beat the giants and whales at their own game and get even and then some.

Everyone in the pool. See you there.

 

Wednesday, 21 March 2018 12:05

Tools of The Trade

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March 21, 2018

Tools of the Trade

By: Jonathan Stettin


I go back a pretty long way with the sheets, also known as the Rags or Ragozins. Today I use Thoro-Graph. Of all the speed figures I find they give you the best chance of finding an edge. I’ll get into that a bit later. We are just about all familiar with Beyer figures. Today there are an array of speed and pace figures to choose from. In addition to the ones I mentioned above you have Timeform, Brisnet and some others providing figures. 

 

One of the biggest mistakes handicappers make is thinking any figure is a substitute for handicapping the race. They are a tool. Not a short cut or substitute for doing your homework. Bruno De Julio of @racingwithbruno offers his Delta Figs, which contrary to all the other figures out there, attempt to gauge the figure the horse will run on race day wherein others assign their numbers to past races. 

 

To see how I was introduced to the Sheets and how long I go back with them you might want to read this:

 

If You Like That Horse Don’t Bet the Race:

 

https://www.pastthewire.com/if-you-like-that-horse-dont-bet-the-race/

 

Obviously, I have a pretty long history with sheets and figures. I also make my own figures I call 10 figs. The game has changed since I first started using the sheets. Accordingly, I have adapted the way I use them. In the past my focus was finding a horse who was sure to peak, and that peak would make them faster than anyone else in the race. I also looked for horses who were going to bounce or regress off an unusually fast or taxing effort. Today I find most of the time the fastest horse is either easily identifiable thus over bet, or most of the field is too close to separate based on figures alone. This leaves me looking for horses who are simply put too slow to win thus easy eliminations. An important factor here is to remember these identifications are based more on patterns in conjunction with the past performances than the isolated number. 

 

Another common mistake people make when reading and interpreting sheets is thinking the number stands alone and they do not factor in all the other conditions. If you factor the past performances and conditions into your analysis of the number and subsequently the pattern than you are reading the sheets in the correct manner, at least as far as I am concerned. You still have to know how to read them, but at least your technique is correct. 

 

The oldest of the figures and perhaps the most well-known are Beyer figures, which for many years now have appeared in the Daily Racing Form. They, like most of the other figures out there, are what I call a raw speed figure. They are based primarily on the time of the race and how fast the horse ran. They take into consideration the other times that day. I have always felt that is a flawed system. Set aside all the changing of Beyer figures after they are assigned, the system in and of itself is out dated. To get an accurate account of how fast a horse ran all you need to do is study the past performances and charts. You do not need a figure to tell you that. The flaw is a Beyer number does not account for the trip, or how wide thus how much ground a horse covered or lost. This is crucial to know when determining who ran faster based on a number. 

 

To understand this concept and how important it is, and why without it any figure can be misleading, all you have to do is race someone slower than you around the track and give them a few inside lane advantage. The gap of how much faster you are will shrink with each lane they have inside of where you are running, riding, driving or whatever. The shortest way to the wire is on the rail, and if on the rail you can run a little slower than a horse on the outside and beat them. The Sheets and Thoro-Graph reflect this and take this and other information into account when assigning a number. This is crucial. You will never see a horse who finished second or third get a better raw speed figure than the winner but with Thoro-Graph or The Sheets you will. 

 

I have come to prefer Thoro-Graph. I find they have advanced with the changing of the game more so than any of the other figures out there, with the exception of Delta Figs which are a different animal altogether. I usually find horses who are too slow to win, thus can be tossed from the top slot in both horizontal and vertical wagers. That is an edge, as often these horses cannot be tossed based on a raw speed figure. I’ve found you will on occasion get beat by a faster horse or some intangible when looking for the fastest horse based on Thoro-Graph, but it is few and far between a horse that is too slow will beat you. 

 

In summary I think Thoro-Graph or any speed figure based on trip and ground saved or lost is an important part of the arsenal. A raw speed figure tells me nothing I do not already know. 

 

 

I go back a pretty long way with the sheets, also known as the Rags or Ragozins. Today I use Thoro-Graph. Of all the speed figures I find they give you the best chance of finding an edge. I’ll get into that a bit later. We are just about all familiar with Beyer figures. Today there are an array of speed and pace figures to choose from. In addition to the ones I mentioned above you have Timeform, Brisnet and some others providing figures.    One of the biggest mistakes handicappers make is thinking any figure is a substitute for handicapping the race. They are a tool. Not a short cut or substitute for doing your homework. Bruno De Julio of @racingwithbruno offers his Delta Figs, which contrary to all the other figures out there, attempt to gauge the figure the horse will run on race day wherein others assign their numbers to past races.    To see how I was introduced to the Sheets and how long I go back with them you might want to read this:   If You Like That Horse Don’t Bet the Race:   https://www.pastthewire.com/if-you-like-that-horse-dont-bet-the-race/   Obviously, I have a pretty long history with sheets and figures. I also make my own figures I call 10 figs. The game has changed since I first started using the sheets. Accordingly, I have adapted the way I use them. In the past my focus was finding a horse who was sure to peak, and that peak would make them faster than anyone else in the race. I also looked for horses who were going to bounce or regress off an unusually fast or taxing effort. Today I find most of the time the fastest horse is either easily identifiable thus over bet, or most of the field is too close to separate based on figures alone. This leaves me looking for horses who are simply put too slow to win thus easy eliminations. An important factor here is to remember these identifications are based more on patterns in conjunction with the past performances than the isolated number.    Another common mistake people make when reading and interpreting sheets is thinking the number stands alone and they do not factor in all the other conditions. If you factor the past performances and conditions into your analysis of the number and subsequently the pattern than you are reading the sheets in the correct manner, at least as far as I am concerned. You still have to know how to read them, but at least your technique is correct.    The oldest of the figures and perhaps the most well-known are Beyer figures, which for many years now have appeared in the Daily Racing Form. They, like most of the other figures out there, are what I call a raw speed figure. They are based primarily on the time of the race and how fast the horse ran. They take into consideration the other times that day. I have always felt that is a flawed system. Set aside all the changing of Beyer figures after they are assigned, the system in and of itself is out dated. To get an accurate account of how fast a horse ran all you need to do is study the past performances and charts. You do not need a figure to tell you that. The flaw is a Beyer number does not account for the trip, or how wide thus how much ground a horse covered or lost. This is crucial to know when determining who ran faster based on a number.    To understand this concept and how important it is, and why without it any figure can be misleading, all you have to do is race someone slower than you around the track and give them a few inside lane advantage. The gap of how much faster you are will shrink with each lane they have inside of where you are running, riding, driving or whatever. The shortest way to the wire is on the rail, and if on the rail you can run a little slower than a horse on the outside and beat them. The Sheets and Thoro-Graph reflect this and take this and other information into account when assigning a number. This is crucial. You will never see a horse who finished second or third get a better raw speed figure than the winner but with Thoro-Graph or The Sheets you will.    I have come to prefer Thoro-Graph. I find they have advanced with the changing of the game more so than any of the other figures out there, with the exception of Delta Figs which are a different animal altogether. I usually find horses who are too slow to win, thus can be tossed from the top slot in both horizontal and vertical wagers. That is an edge, as often these horses cannot be tossed based on a raw speed figure. I’ve found you will on occasion get beat by a faster horse or some intangible when looking for the fastest horse based on Thoro-Graph, but it is few and far between a horse that is too slow will beat you.    In summary I think Thoro-Graph or any speed figure based on trip and ground saved or lost is an important part of the arsenal. A raw speed figure tells me nothing I do not already know.   

Wednesday, 14 March 2018 12:21

Can We Justify the Hype?

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March 14, 2018

Can We Justify the Hype?

By: Jonathan Stettin


Regardless of what happens on the first Saturday in May, it seems kind of silly to anoint a horse with just two starts, no Kentucky Derby points, and no stakes experience as the winner of the next Run for the Roses. As of today, we do not even know if Justify, a fast and talented, albeit inexperienced and untested colt, by Scat Daddy and trained by the master himself, Bob Baffert, will be in the starting gate. Based on the ease in which he won an allowance race this past Sunday, in a quick time over a fast strip which was wet, he looks visually as talented as any three-year old we have seen in 2018. That, along with all the positives already pointed out, does not make him the Derby winner.

 

Racing hungers for that next champion, that next special horse that out performs expectations and captures the hearts of the die hard and peripheral fans as well. We can almost taste it when we see an exciting maiden breaker, and we amplify that tenfold when it is from a powerhouse stable. In reality, we have been very fortunate in the past several years. We have seen some truly great champions. We’ve even had our long-awaited Triple Crown winner in American Pharoah, who silenced all who said we needed to change the series or we wouldn’t see another one. Perhaps they hadn’t studied the history of this great game. The Triple Crown is not supposed to be easy or frequent. It takes a special horse and a lot of things to go right. Along with American Pharoah, who put an exclamation point on his Triple Crown with a score in the Breeders’ Cup Classic against older horses, we had plenty of other stars. Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Beholder, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Lady Eli, Shared Belief and Curlin immediately come to mind. These are horses who would have been top shelf in any era, yet we still long for that next one.

 

While there is nothing wrong with that type of enthusiasm, and if it fuels excitement for the game I guess it is a good thing. However, as a student and historian of the sport I realize how silly it really is at this juncture. This excitement and hunger doesn’t stop with the fan and bettor. It extends to the people spending, even over spending, at the sales. It reaches the people who have scouts watching for smashing performances and high buyer numbers or low sheet numbers, so they can over spend on a racing prospect. Everybody wants that next champion. Freak is the word often thrown around. How and why that word was chosen to represent fast racehorses escapes me, but if nothing else it is over used.

 

Looking back, I saw plenty of horses run great in their first two starts. Pulpit, a 107 Beyer on debut at Gulfstream and a 108 when stretched out the next time. He won by over 7 lengths first out and over 6 in his second start. With a little luck he could have broken the Apollo curse which is something Justify will have to overcome. While I do think that the whole Apollo thing is ripe for the picking and will be foiled at some point, it does go back to the 1800’s. Rock Hard Ten ran two smashers to begin his career, Curlin was super impressive in his debut so much so he was purchased privately with the Kentucky Derby in mind. Considering he broke his maiden in February as a three-year old it was an ambitious buy. Although Curlin didn’t win the Derby, he ran third but with more seasoning he might have did it, which also would have knocked down that whole Apollo thing.

 

Khozan ran two monsters to start his career and so did Bayern. Tale of The Cat ran a killer debut, winning by a pole. A lot of really nice horses, but no Kentucky Derby winners. Bodemeister was another who looked like he could be anything and if not for I’ll Have Another and a very fast pace we might not even have to mention that whole Apollo thing anymore. That freak word was thrown all around these horses. I take nothing away from any of them, they all had talent. But after just a race or two, you just don’t know who a freak is. Nobody does.

 

When you look at all this, one thing jumps out. Don’t believe the hype, especially when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. Let them sort themselves out on the track. They will. And I, for one, enjoy watching it unfold and having an unbiased edge come the first Saturday in May. Sure, Justify has a lot going for him. I think he is really good and could be special. I think Apollo should be watching. I think if anyone can pull this off, it is Bob Baffert. This is a game of odds however, and I think we must remain cognizant that the odds are against it.

Wednesday, 07 March 2018 11:39

You Have to Think It Through

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February 27, 2018

You Have To Think It Through

By: Jonathan Stettin


I have taken my fair share of criticism on ticket structuring, which is an important aspect of success when you wager on horse races. Of course, when you win you’re brilliant and when you lose you are a fool who put together a terrible play structured improperly.

 

Be it raves or critique, I never pay attention to anyone when it comes to ticket structuring. If I have to do that I am in trouble before I start. First off, as I mentioned if you win you will get accolades, and if you lose those same people will give you kudos. None of that matters.

 

While I can’t say I have a formula to structuring multi-race tickets, I definitely have a “go for the kill style,” and also do not subscribe to the ABC method many people prefer and find helpful.

 

Briefly, I don’t personally like the ABC approach as I do not believe in leaving myself in a position where I have used every horse in a multi-race sequence, but don’t have them all on the same ticket. That leaves the door open to a burn when you were actually right. There will be enough times you are wrong; why leave the door open not to cash when you’re right? That doesn’t make sense to me. I prefer what I call the go-back method. I do believe I invented the term with a close friend of mine.

 

When I say go back, I mean play one ticket with every contender I want to use, then play a second or even multiple tickets with the horses I might prefer over some of the others. This way I hit the sequence once or if I am spot on multiple times. I will never have used all the winners in a multi-race sequence but on different tickets which the ABC method will do. Been there done that, not again. If it works for you that is fine, we all have our own styles and philosophies and it comes down to only one benchmark, if you beat the game. If you do, stick with what you do. If you don’t consider other options. You want to be at the table, not on the menu.

 

Last Saturday at Gulfstream the Fountain of Youth stakes anchored a Pick 4 I found enticing. While I knew Good Magic, the heavy favorite had a good chance and had to be used, I thought there was only one horse who had a realistic chance of beating him and that was Fulfilled Promises who was 20-1 on the morning line and was going to go into the gate at close to those odds. That meant that whatever happened in the first three legs the Pick 4 with Fulfilled Promises was going to pay nice bolstered by a large guaranteed pool and a lot of weekend and holiday warrior money. An automatic opportunity for a score.

 

The key was to be alive to Good Magic to make some money, and to Fulfilled Promises to take down a score. The first three legs were challenging. You had a maiden special weight race around two turns with horses stretching out, a competitive sprint stake, and a turf marathon where the two favorites were somewhat vulnerable. One was in a marooned post way outside with almost no run to the first turn. The other was off a layoff for an ice-cold trainer, albeit a capable one.

 

The thought process I had left me using only two horses in the last leg. That helps with cost. I had to have one other race with a single or at the most two horses, and then I could spread in the other races. I knew the sequence did not really call for a go back ticket, so I would hope to catch some prices early so if Good Magic was just too good which was possible, I’d still be OK.

 

In the maiden race that started things off, I liked the favorite on the rail, and the horse on the outside. That made things easy. That would be the other short race. I’d use those two, and hope I beat the favorite. Then I could spread. I used 5 horses in the sprint, and 9 in the turf race. I thought the turf marathon could produce a bomb, and with 9 horses covered I hoped I would have it if it did. That would put me in a very strong position if I was indeed right about Fulfilled Promises.

 

My ticket looked like this:

 

2 x 5 x 9 x 2 = $90 for a fifty-cent wager. It looked like $90 well spent as if things went right it could pay well. It was also a ticket you could play a few times.

 

Things started pretty good with the favorite losing to the only horse I thought could beat him who was 7-1. I survived an objection but even in these uncertain days of steward decisions I wasn’t too concerned. I got a horse who figured home in the Sprint at 5-1 or so but that was a competitive race and Favorable Outcome took a ton of the weekend and holiday money I spoke about earlier. That was a huge help. Then things got interesting, the favorite off the layoff for an 0 for trainer gets up late to nail one of three horses I left out. It was close to a bad burn and Fulfilled Promises wired the field in the Fountain of Youth at 20-1 capping a $3,051 Pick 4 for 50 cents. You have to think it through, there is no short cut way around it and every sequence is different. Further if the favorite in the first leg or Good Magic was my “A” horse there is a chance I could have used all the horses and not cashed the Pick 4.

 

The final thought is this, while a good day with no complaints, the story would have been better if a 25-1 or something like that won the turf marathon and it was one of the 9 horses I used. That is the key, think it through, and put yourself in position for the kill shot. You do that enough, you will nail one. As a pro I know two things, one day that horse I left out where I used 9 out of 12 will get me. That is OK though as I also know one day that 25-1 I used will get up just before my 20-1 wins and counting the money will take longer than it did Saturday.

 

 

Tuesday, 27 February 2018 17:51

Understanding The Troubled Trip

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February 27, 2018

Understanding The Troubled Trip

By: Jonathan Stettin


Many of us watch a lot of races over the course of a week. The normal tendency is to watch either the horse you bet on or the leader. We also tend to watch a horse making a move or one the track announcer brings to our attention. When looking for troubled trips you must train yourself to watch all the horses in the race and see things that might not be the focal point of most other spectators. Sure, the running lines will identify some troubled trips for you, but those are the ones everyone will know about. To gain an advantage it helps to see some that are for your eyes only.

There are many different types of troubled trips. Some result from bad racing luck, post position, poor rider decisions, pace, and all sorts of other intangibles. Sometimes something can happen right in front of a horse that causes them to check and lose either ground, momentum or both. The troubled trips identified in past performances usually result in underlays so it is important to understand not all troubled trips are automatically a play back and actually some may offer better value betting against.

In my opinion a troubled trip is one that prevented a horse from running better than they would have sans the trouble. It maybe they checked, were blocked, were hemmed in by a rider or horse, went wide or were carried wide, lost ground or momentum, or were on the worst part of the track. Sometimes they can be prevented and sometimes they can’t. A horse can also have trouble that may not have been enough to have an impact on how they ran. Experience will show you the difference over time. There is no shortcut.

When a horse returns from a troubled trip you have to handicap the race they are running back in using the troubled trip to help you gauge how the horse would have run without the trouble. Then you will need to look at the new race as if the horse ran as you envision they would have. You must look at the conditions and class as well as the pace in the new race. Just because we upgrade a horse because of trouble in their last start, doesn’t mean we like that horse in this field and under these circumstances today.

Along those very same lines there will be times you see a horse get blocked, steadied or trapped and know they would have won that day and should win the race they are in today. Personally, I love when that happens especially if it is a horse I spotted whose trouble does not appear in the past performances. I try and share this type of information and how to spot it for yourself through my Tracking Trips service. You can learn more about that here or on the link above. https://www.pastthewire.com/tracking-trips-info/

When handicapping a race and you see a horse coming off a troubled trip, or even one that ran with or against a true bias, I would suggest handicapping the race as if you didn’t know that first. Once done, I would then factor in what you know and upgrade or downgrade the horse accordingly. Betting a horse off a troubled trip can be one of the best bets at the track, knowing which ones to bet and which ones to pass is key.

In the end it comes down to doing your homework and learning how to use the troubled trip as a tool to help you bet or bet against. If a horse off a troubled trip, that should win, takes more money than normal because of the trouble, a lot of people will bet against claiming there is no value in that horse. I don’t believe that. I believe there is no value betting a loser or horse you don’t like to win because of the price. The Sport of Kings offers many wagering opportunities that allow us to create value in most circumstances.