Displaying items by tag: Pick 6 - AmWager

Wednesday, 28 March 2018 16:00

Everyone in the Pool

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March 28, 2018

Everyone in the Pool

By: Jonathan Stettin


It’s an exciting time of year in the Sport of Kings. The final Kentucky Derby preps are upon us. The Run for the Roses is shaping up to be an interesting contest with possibly two horses having a chance of knocking out the Apollo curse, by winning the Derby without having raced at two-years old. The Dubai World Cup is Saturday and pits West Coast, the heir apparent to the top older horse in training in the US, against Talismanic the winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf. Saturday is also Florida Derby day at Gulfstream Park and that major Kentucky Derby prep will anchor a stakes filled card to end the Championship meet.

Something else will be happening at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. There will be a mandatory payout of the Rainbow 6 pool provided there is no single ticket winner between now and then. You can rest assured there are sharks in the water trying to spoil the big plans for the Rainbow 6 on Saturday, which if it carries could create a record Pick 6 pool. The pool has been “snaked” before leading up to a mandatory payout, but I have a feeling that won’t happen this go around, although I will admit I’d love to play the spoiler.

With the carryover between 4 and 5 million, actually closer to 5 on Saturday, we should see a pool somewhere between 20-25 million dollars. The fact it is Florida Derby day will help grow the pool, as Gulfstream will be a main focal point of horse racing across the country. I can see the pool going higher than the amount I projected, depending on the card, which has not yet been drawn.

The Rainbow 6, at a 20-cent minimum wager, has both supporters and detractors. I am a supporter, as I think any potentially life changing wager is good for the game and the players. As someone who has hit Pick 6’s from 100-500k more than my fair share of times and been alive for upward of a million dollars to one horse. I can say it is a thrilling wager that can be satisfying and obviously rewarding when you’re right. It can also be devastating when you are wrong, or worse get beat even when you zig zagged correctly. Which is why, under normal circumstances, the Pick 6 is not for everyone and certainly not for the faint of heart.

Saturday is not going to be normal circumstances, which is why everyone should be in the pool. Both regular Pick 6 players and even non-Pick 6 players should be going after this one.

A pool of 20-25 million dollars negates any argument about takeout. Takeout won’t matter regardless of one’s position on it. The 20-cent minimum, along with the massive pool and mandatory payout, levels the playing field considerably for smaller and especially medium monetary bettors. The big syndicates and robotic partnerships don’t have their normal huge edge over everyone else in the pool. This is your chance to compete with them and win with a few hundred-dollar ticket, with what may cost them thousands to win.

Saturday is like an enormous Pick 6 pool with a gracious discount for the bettor. We don’t get discounts often, so when we do, I say seize them. I look at it this way. I can buy 10k of coverage in the sequence for 2k. Or 2k coverage for $200. This is both a great equalizer and opportunity. A well-structured ticket, with a fair investment and some solid opinions, has an excellent chance of winning a more than fair return.

While the likelihood of a single ticket on Saturday is improbable, it really should not matter. Even if the day chalks out, which of course we all hope it doesn’t, you could wind up okay. There won’t be many, if any, single ticket possibilities going in, so I wouldn’t go in or approach it with that goal. I’d go in looking to beat the giants and whales at their own game and get even and then some.

Everyone in the pool. See you there.

 

Published in Jon Stettin's Blog
Thursday, 29 June 2017 16:39

ABC Wagering for Multi-Race Bets


ABC WageringDo you enjoy playing multi-race bets? Whether it’s a pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, or the elusive pick 6, you should be maximizing your opinion and budget every time you bet into these pools using the ABC wagering method. Now, I am not talking about learning the alphabet. The ABC method of structuring tickets should be the starting point for playing multi-race bets. Steve Crist, in his best-selling book Exotic Betting, wrote about this methodology of betting. Not only did he coin the ABC method, but he has shown that over the years if you are an astute horseplayer this is the way to maximize your opinion. So what is the ABC method you ask? Well, first let’s identify what it is not.

If you are not using the ABC wagering method then you are playing the “caveman” ticket-meaning you are assigning the same weight(chances of winning) to each horse in each race within the sequence. While that method does work, you are not taking advantage of your handicapping acumen. Do you really think that all your selections in a particular race have an equal chance of winning and carry the same amount of value? Do you have an open bankroll where the cost associated with structuring your ticket has no budgetary constraints?  If you meet that criteria, then this article is probably not for you. On the other hand, if you are looking for a way to enhance your return on investment(ROI) with a given bankroll limit, the ABC wagering method is for you.

As a horseplayer you should recognize that some horses have a better chance of winning a race than others. Why not assign a greater portion of your bankroll to those horses in order to maximize your opinions. That is what the ABC wagering method can help you do. Let’s identify what makes a horse an A, B, or C. “A” horses are those that you believe have the best shot of winning the race, or a horse whose percentage chance of winning the race(in your opinion) is better than the odds shown on the tote board(given the morning line). Your “A” horses are your most likely winners or best value horses. “B” horses are those that have a shot of winning the race, but maybe do not have the attributes of “A” horses. They can also be horses whose odds are lower than your perceived belief of their actual chances of winning(underlay). “C” horses or “bombs” are those horses that need a lot of things to go right for them to cross the wire; first but the cost associated with having them on your ticket is less than the risk of leaving them off or them winning at a huge price.

Once you go through all the legs in the sequence and assign horses as “A”, “B”, or “C” contenders you can structure your tickets in a manner that portions a greater percentage of your bankroll on “A” plays.  While you will have multiple tickets for one multi-race sequence, in the long run you are cutting down the cost of a “caveman” ticket and putting a larger portion of your bankroll on your strongest opinions.  See an example below.

In this example I am playing a pick 4 with an $48 budget. I have selected the runners as follows:

ABCSelection

 

If you were to play all your selections using  “caveman” manner, you would be playing a $1.00 Pick 4 with a total ticket cost of $48.00.

Ex. 2/4,5,6,7/ 3,4,5,6/2,4,7 at $1 = $48.00

In the ABC wagering method I would instead make seperate pick 4 wagers: 

The first using all A selections:

$2.50 Pick4 2/4,5/3,4/2,4 for $20

The next two using B horses in 1 leg with all other legs A horses and lowering the base amount accordingly:

$1.50 Pick4 2/6/3,4/2,4 for $6.00
$1.50 Pick4 2/4,5/3,4/7 for $6.00

The next using 2 legs of B selections with the remainder A horses and again lowering the base amount:

$1.00 Pick4 2/6/3,4/7 for $2.00

Lastly should we choose to we can also add in our C wagers with the A horses such as:

$1.00 Pick4 2/7/3,4/2,4 for $4.00
$1.00 Pick4 2/4,5/5,6/2,4 for $8.00

That is a total of $46 with a  higher base cost  on my A and B selections therefore appropriating a larger portion of my bankroll on those selections that I feel have a better chance of winning their individual races.

The details of how to choose the proper base amount based on your budget are a bit outside of the scope of this post as its meant as an entry point. I may cover it in a later post if there is interest. 

Using the ABC method you could realistically hit the pick 4 for $4.00 and even if a “B” or “C” horse crossed the wire first, you still increased your winning as the minimum ticket put in using this method was $2.00.

The ABC system is not going to find the winners for you; that’s your job as a handicapper. However, if you are successful in navigating the sequence, the ABC methodology will help generate a higher ROI and that, my friends, is the difference between investing and gambling. 

 

Published in Papo's Post