Papo's Post - AmWager

Papo's Post

Papo's Post (48)

  • 16
    SEP

    Papo picks the Canadian Stakes at Woodbine

    tepinBy Papo Morales, AmWager

    An outstanding day of racing at Woodbine on Saturday with a stakes filled card and several multi-race guarantees including $150k early Pick 4, $250k late Pick 4 and a $100k late Pick 5. With rolling pick 3’s and .20 cent incremental base bets on all the “pick” wagers, there are several opportunities to get involved with the exotic wagers and with potentially minimum investments. It’s worth noting that AmWager will be offering an additional win bonus on the pick 3’s and pick 4’s at Woodbine on Saturday to spice up your potential payoffs.

    Race 8 Canadian Stakes 1 1/8th Miles Turf

    A solid field of seven fillies and mares entered in the first graded stakes race on the Woodbine card, the Grade 2 Canadian. Morning line favoritism falls on Dacita (2-1) for trainer Chad Brown. The Scat Daddy mare has won two straight races including the Grade 1 Diana Stakes at Saratoga in her last start. Since making her stateside debut in August of 2015, the Chilean bred has won three races and finished second once in six starts. There is a chance of showers at Woodbine on Saturday. If the skies open up and the track get moisture in it, then she is a play against as Dacita prefers firm turf. While she is a win contender, others offer more value in this race so I will relegate her to a “b” on my multi-race wagers.

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  • 09
    SEP

    Papo Picks the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs

    kentuckyBy Papo Morales, AmWager

    Race 8 One Dreamer Stakes 1 mile 70 yards

    A contentious field of ten fillies and mares looking to take the winner’s share of the $150,000 purse racing over the undulating Kentucky Downs turf course. Morning line favoritism falls on Annulment (5-2) for trainer Vicki Oliver.

    The Broken Vow mare has been a graded stakes performer throughout her career, albeit many of those races were at distances longer than Saturday's race. In 2016 she has started five times and while she has run well in those races, she has yet to find the winner’s circle. She did run third in this race last year but I think she is better with more real estate to work with. For that reason, I will play against her for win honors.

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  • 26
    AUG

    Papo picks the G1 Travers

    traversBy Papo Morales, AmWager

    Race 11 Grade 1 Travers Stakes:

    A full field of 14 three-year-olds looking to win the 147th running of the Mid-Summer Derby, the Travers Stakes. The grade one race was first run in 1864 and was won by Kentucky at a race distance of 1 ¾ miles would which be considered a marathon distance by today’s standards. The Travers was shortened to the classic distance of 1 ¼ miles in 1893 and was won by Stowaway. The winner of the race will look to join such classic horses as Man o’ War, Whirlaway, Gallant Man, Damascus, and Alydar and have their jockey’s silks painted on the track canoe, a tradition that first started in 1926.

    Much like the Kentucky Derby, there is value to be had in this full field and I would not take a short price on anyone. Let’s start the conversation with the morning favorite in Exaggerator (3-1), who is coming into this race off a gutsy win in the Grade 1 Haskell. That race was run in the mud, a surface that the son of Curlin adores, which is apparent by his undefeated record on a track rated as such. He did run second in the Kentucky Derby but even that track had some moisture in it, as it rained 55 minutes before the race. He is usable in this race but he will be a “B” on my multi-race wagers and I will try to get him out of the top spot in my intra-race bets.

     

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  • 25
    AUG

    Down the Stretch "Travers Stakes" Radio, Saturday!

    traversThe Down the Stretch radio show with Don Knobel and AmWager resident handicapper Papo Morales will discuss and debate the Travers Stakes - the Midsummer Derby - and the stellar race card at Saratoga this Saturday, Aug. 27.

    Don and Papo will share their lively analysis and tips on the Travers and 6 other graded stakes, 5 G1s, at The Spa. The radio show will air from 10 to 11 am ET on IHeart Radio on the Internet & 790AM WKRD in Louisville.

    Don Knobel is a prominent handicapper. Since 1992, his Down the Stretch racing sheets have been popular with his customers and the radio show has a devoted and wide following.

    AmWager's Papo Morales co-hosts the radio show. Papo also pens Papo's Post, his weekly column providing winning insights into the top stakes races on Saturdays.

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  • 19
    AUG

    Papo picks the Fourstardave at the Spa

    saratogaBy Papo Morales, AmWager

    NOTE: Papo picked this race last week, and made some of his decisions based on the rain that ultimately washed out the day. While he still likes Force the Pass as his key horse, please follow his twitter feed at https://twitter.com/papocore1 for updates and thoughts. Additionally, listen to his analysis of this race plus other Saratoga and Del Mar Stakes on IHeart Radio at 10-11am ET.

    Race 10 Fourstardave Handicap:

    A contentious field of 10 (one entered as main track only) older horses looking for grade one honors in the this one mile turf race. The handicapping puzzle begins with the weather report which is calling for a 60% chance of rain. With the likely threat of thunderstorms I am handicapping this race as if it is going to be run on good to soft ground which improves some horses chances while diluting others.

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  • 05
    AUG

    Papo picks the West Virginia Derby

    westvirginiaderbyBy Papo Morales, AmWager

    Race 8 Grade 2 West Virginia Derby 1 1/8th Miles

    A field of 11 three-year-old’s looking to pick up a Derby win by crossing the wire first in Mountaineer’s biggest race, the West Virginia Derby.

    Morning line favoritism falls on Cupid (3-1), for trainer Bob Baffert, who is coming into the race off an outstanding win in the Grade 2 Indiana Derby. In that race, Cupid showed his mettle by setting a fast pace and then turning back all challengers down the stretch.

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