There are three Kentucky Derby points races on Saturday. The Gotham, The Tampa Bay Derby, and The San Felipe all offer hope and the ever-important points to get into the gate on the First Saturday in May. Sure, these races are fun to wager on, but for me, that is not the only enjoyment I derive from them. I enjoy trying to spot that horse that will peak in the big dance, and not before it. With the inception of the point process a few years back, the option of training your horse up to the Derby was all but taken away. You have to have your horse ready to fire an A race at least once before the goal. For example, Mack Miller did not have to worry about that when his Sea Hero won. Now, your hand will be tipped, but it is still fun, and potentially rewarding, to…
On Saturday before we get to see some Derby hopefuls at Gulfstream we’ll get to see the inaugural Saudi Cup, as of today the richest horse race in the world.The USA has both a strong presence and a big shot to win. For a $20 million purse, you’ll always have horses show up, so it is not any surprise to me that the race has a strong field.I really didn’t plan on betting the Saudi Cup, but I have changed my mind. Sometimes you just see something you can’t pass up.The race will be run mediation free. That means no Lasix among other things. I think this may factor in on how things unfold.Generally speaking, I think when horses are used to racing on Lasix, and then run without it they are at a disadvantage. I would guess this is especially true when shipping far away to race in the…
Key Horse Races & Free Expert Picks For February 29Davona Dale Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:59 PM EasternReluctant Bride is very intriguing here opening at 15/1. Favorites Spice is Nice and Tonalist’s Shape are the horses to beat. Reluctant Bride tries dirt after two turf tries, the first a win sprinting in her career debut and the second a sixth of seven finish in the Sweetest Chant Stakes. The reason she’s so intriguing is Biancone’s record in the past year with horses he tries on dirt. One of those was Sole Volante, who finished third in the Mucho Macho Man then won the Sam Davis. Another is Ete Indien, who finished second in the Holy Bull and has a strong chance to post the upset in the Fountain of Youth (Race 14) today. Another is Diamond Oops, who won a pair of stakes on…
Last week we saw two pretty good reasons to keep playing this game. I’ll be the first to say the sport has changed, beating it is tougher than ever, and we all know we have many issues to fix, but difference-making scores remain a reality. For me, this makes the Sport of Kings worth playing.We saw a pick 6 get taken down for a cool mil, and we saw a pick 5 go for around 500k. The pick 6 wager was around $50 and the pick 5 around $1000. Both tickets required some luck, but even in skill gambling games luck always helps.As someone who has played professionally for years, I am of the opinion the only way to have a chance to beat the game today is to go for these types of scores. My philosophy is to make every bet you make a potential big score. If you…
Turf Dash Stakes – Race 6 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:15 PM EasternOf the three morning line favorites – Extragavant Kid (5/2), Justaholic (3/1) and Faction Cat (7/2), Justaholic has a slight edge, followed by Extragavant Kid. I’ll take a stand against Faction Cat because I’m not sure he’s running nor am I sure trainer Baxter has much intent. The reason is intuitive, noting Baxter has Pay Any Price in the race and Morales is named to ride but even at the time final entries came out there was no jockey named on Faction Cat. As to Pay Any Price, he’s likely to zip out fast from the rail and is a need-the-lead type who won his only start on the Tampa turf, but that was in 2017 and he folded badly last in a similar stakes in January after leading early so I’m not interested here.…
One of the most common mistakes I see handicappers make is assuming a horse will run similar or even exactly how they ran in their last start.Horses are not machines, and they don’t run the same every time they race. All too often people look at the past performances or the replay of a horse's last start and conclude that’s what they will see again.I will be the first to agree horses, in general, are more consistent today than in the past. I believe drugs, legal and otherwise are a large part of that but even given that they don’t repeat every performance.Handicapping comes down to predictably and being to see in advance what will or at least will likely happen. If it was as easy as looking at the entrants' last race we would all win a lot more often.Pace changes. Class changes. Competition changes. Conditions change. Distances change.…
John B. Campbell Stakes – Race 4 at Laurel - Post Time 1:50 PM EasternWait for It is one of three horses who, combined, have the bulk of the probability to win in my opinion. He opens at 5 to 1 whereas the other two, Someday Jones and Monongahela, opens at 5/2 and 2/1. That makes Wait for It the one to write about first and to consider betting on to win, particularly as he gets the rail to save ground and as he's making his fourth start and third route start after coming back from five months off. The pattern is easily identifiable, as he earned a 100 Equibase figure in his comeback, than 111 and finally 113 when winning a classified allowance race around two turns at Parx last month, from the rail no less. Flattered when runner-up Senior Investment (who is in this race) came back to…
Today is the day. You proudly strut yourself to your favorite racetrack. You know your stuff and you’re sure of your picks. You know the odds and place your bets with confidence. The race begins, the anticipation builds, the finish line roars and you are congratulated by your friends when you walk out with cash in your pocket. Everyone wants to be a winner, but the reality is that most of us do not fully understand the intricacies of horse racing odds. Sure, placing a bet is easy enough but that is why most race goers walk out with less money than they came in with. Are you one of them?Are you just placing bets blind and hoping for the best? It’s completely fine if you are. We won’t judge. We made this guide just for you! Here we will explain and simplify horse racing odds to make betting easier.…
A stab to me is not a shot in the dark or a play without some logic and reasoning behind it. It is when I go for one horse over some others I like because of a feeling, or something less scientific than just hard-core handicapping. In some races and instances, I can’t separate the contenders. At times I will use them all in multi-race bets. Other times I will come up with an angle that favors one over the others. Sometimes I will take a stab. At Tampa in the Sam Davis I will be taking a stab. I think the favorite, Independence Hall, who many will have their eyes on as a possible Kentucky Derby horse, is talented and does not absolutely need the lead to win. That said, his best and most recent races have come with him on the engine, and I think he is close to or…
Lambholm South Endeavour Stakes - Race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:59 PM EasternGot Stormy opens as the 4/5 favorite and although the race isn’t playable from the perspective of a win bet or even other exotics there’s value in the pick 5 which starts here because it becomes a pick 4 with a strong single (the only horse to play) to begin the sequence. She’s a multiple grade 1 winner in a grade 3 race and although she hasn’t run since winning the Matriarch Stakes in December she fired to win last August off a three month layoff. Hopefully we can make a decent profit in the pick 5, or at least more than we would make betting her to win.BetsPick 5: Race 8- Got Stormy Race 9 – Lucrezia, Two Sixty, Motu Race 10 – March to the Arch, Devamani, Caribou Club Race 11 –…