Thursday, 02 November 2017 14:11
Key Bets & Races for Friday, November 3 FeaturedWritten by Super User
Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf – Race 6 at Del Mar – Post time 2:25 Pacific, 5:25 Eastern
September, one of two fillies from the potent barn of Aiden O'Brien, ran the best race of any horse in this field last month in England when a nose shy of victory in the Group 1 Bet365 Mile Stakes. She improved significantly off her 3rd place effort behind Happily one month earlier in another Group 1 stakes, that one at 7 furlongs, so the mile appears to be her better trip. In the Bet365 Mile, September was making up ground by leaps and bounds after waiting for room with about a furlong out and jockey Heffernan should have her motoring past most if not all of these in the stretch today.
Rushing Fall is the North American filly with as big of a late kick as September but she's only run twice compared to five times for September, which may give September an edge. However, make no mistake, Rushing Fall can win this race with a repeat of her effort last month in the J.P. Morgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland, when seemingly in an instant she went from 9th to 4th and then from 4th to 1st. That was on soft ground, but Rushing Fall broke her maiden on firm turf so the condition of the course won't be an issue. The only issue for Rushing Fall and jockey Castellano, up for both her races to date, is to make sure she gets a clear path to run in the stretch because it's likely September will be closer up than she is when the field turns for home and there may be a lot of traffic in this full field even on the Del Mar turf course which was widened in anticipation of big Breeders' Cup fields.
Happily just beat males in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere in France, her second Group 1 stakes win in a row, the first when beating September in the Moyglare Stud Stakes in Ireland in September. Happily has done little wrong in her career, winning four of five since a poor 7th place debut in June, and she is owned by the same high profile connections (Magnier, Tabor and Smith) as September, calling the top Aiden O'Brien barn home as well. Moving back to her own gender after trouncing the boys last month, Happily would absolutely be no surprise if posing for pictures in the winner's circle after this race.
Make win bets on the contenders at these odds or higher:
Rushing Fall 5/2
Two other horses, although having less probability to win than the three main win contenders above, can be considered for wagers at 6 to 1 or higher. They are Capla Temptress and Juliet Capulet
Play an exacta box consisting of September, Rushing Fall, Happily, Capla Temptress and Juliet Capulet
Play an additional exacta box consisting of September, Rushing Fall and Happily
Play an exacta consisting of September, Rushing Fall and Happily over September, Rushing Fall, Happily, Capla Temptress and Juliet Capulet
Play an exacta consisting of September, Rushing Fall, Happily, Capla Temptress and Juliet Capulet over September, Rushing Fall and Happily
Published in Ellis Starr's Blog