Friday, 03 November 2017 12:32
Key Bets & Races for Saturday, November 4 FeaturedWritten by Super User
Juvenile Turf Sprint – Race 3 at Del Mar – Post time 11:20 AM Pacific Time, 2:20 PM Eastern Time
I probably could go on and on with listing contenders in this full field of 12 two year olds horse going 5 furlongs on turf, every one having run in a stakes race in North America or Europe. However, I will have to give Sound and Silence a bit of an edge here based on the number of races he's run (8), his record (4 for 8) and the fact he won the Group 3 Prix Eclipse Stakes in September, with a runner-up effort I a stakes prior to that and after that. With class in his favor and having run four "A" races in a row, three at this 5 furlong trip, Sound and Silence could have what it takes to win this year's Qatar Juvenile Turf Sprint. Next in terms of probability there are a slew that could jump up and run well, so we should be mindful to bet the ones going to post at the highest odds to take advantage of any mistakes made by the public at large. Elizabeth Darcy opens at 20/1 and fits on all counts, one of three from the potent Wesley Ward barn but the only one ridden by North American leading jockey Jose Ortiz The filly won by an amazing 7 3/4 lengths (for a 5 furlong sprint) in her May debut then two later missed by less than a length in the Prix du Bois Stakes in France. She ran badly in August but comes back to the states and put in a sparkling 47 and change workout a few days ago. Treasuring and Out of the Flames are both owned by Qatar Racing but have different trainers. Nevertheless if we bet on one we should be on the other as they both open at double digit odds. Treasuring won the grade 3 Curragh Stakes in Ireland in August before a poor effort in a group 1 stakes and she has a big shot to rebound against these and with first time Lasix. Out of the Flames missed by less than a length in a stakes with a 90K purse in England when last seen and also adds Lasix for the first time. March X Press is the best of the U.S. contingent, having won the Bolton Landing Stakes at 5 1/2 furlongs on grass in her 2nd career start, in August at Saratoga. She ran okay when 4th of 9 at a mile in the Natalma at Woodbine (in Canada) and on the cut back to a sprint where she's a perfect 2 for 2 she deserves express. We can't forget about Fairyland either as she was just a half-length behind March X Press in the Bolton Landing after leading from the start, and she put in a big half-mile workout locally on the turf in preparation for this race so could run as well or better here.
Bet Sound and Silence to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Consider win bets (at a smaller amount than on Sound and Silence) on any of the following horses, particularly if they go to post anywhere near double digit odds:
Elizabeth Darcy – Fair odds 5/1
Treasuring – Fair odds 7/1
Out of the Flames – Fair odds 7/1
March X Press – Fair odds 7/1
Fairyland – Fair odds 7/1
Labeeb Stakes – Race 6 at Woodbine – Post time 3:49 PM ET
Perhaps some people will pass this race as only six are entered but there's a lot of value to be had betting Field of Courage to win, opening at 6/1, so rest assured I'll be betting this race. Additionally, the 2nd choice, Tower of Texas (morning line 2/1) is false if not vulnerable, with a 1 for 10 record this year and last and two bad races in a row, albeit to tougher but never showing any spark. Field of Courage tried turf twice before his most recent effort on the course on 10/15 and he was a whole different horse this time around posting the upset at 40/1 in the Grade 2 Nearctic Stakes. Field of Courage gets Hernandez to ride with Contreras out of town and that's just fine as the jockey has won at a very high 33% clip for Casse over the past 2 years. Considering his last race 113 Equibase figure, over the same course, is by FAR not only the best last race effort/figure in the field, BUT better than the 106 Glenville Gardens earned winning the Grade 2 Connaught Cup in June and the career best 104 figure 8/5 morning line favorite Shakhimat earned winning a classified allowance race near the end of September, Field of Courage is going to be a great win bet and key on any exacta wagers we make in this race.
Bet Field of Courage to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Play an exacta box between Field of Courage and Glenville Gardens
Play an exacta box between Field of Courage and Shakhimat
Chelsey Flower Stakes – Race 9 at Aqueduct – Post time 4:36 PM ET
The Chelsey Flower Stakes is a turf race run at a mile for two year old fillies and four of these come out of races won by fillies that ran in Friday's Breeders' Juvenile Fillies Turf so the race isn't to be taken very lightly, particularly with a field of 12 signed on and no heavy favorite. I'll start the contender list with Mrs. Ramona G, who won in her debut at 6 furlongs on turf at Belmont at the end of September while showing a lot of maturity rallying from 8th in the early stages to win going away. She cost a quarter million at auction in March and may worth that in short order if she improves off what is ALREADY the best last race in the field, with a field high last race 89 Equibase figure. Angel Cruz may not be known to a lot of bettors, which could keep her odds near the 6/1 she opens at on the morning line, but make no mistake this jock can ride as he is used by Graham Motion and did win a graded stakes at Keeneland for that top trainer. With so many big names in California this is a fine choice of jockey in my opinion. Wise Gal is a stakes winner already but opens at what may be ridiculous 10/1 odds if they hold up. She is 2 for 2, both wins coming in turf sprints, but like Mrs. Ramona G she is bred to handle the longer distance just fine as a daughter of Einstein and she too showed a lot of maturity winning the Selima Stakes in mid-September rallying from 7th of 8 in the early stages. Brattata shouldn't won to break her maiden last out on 10/7, in the race won by Night Time Lady, but was completely boxed in until too late, still closing fast from 5th to 3rd, beaten under a length at the end. She opens a bit low for a win bet at 7/2 given how deep the field is and as she gets a potentially disadvantageous post but she's a contender nonetheless, one of two trained by Chad Brown (the other Night Time Lady). Radiant Beauty gets the ground saving rail and has shown the ability to win on the lead or from off the pace, breaking her maiden last month in career start #4 wire-to-wire at Belmont at a mile and one-sixteenth, so this mile trip will be no problem. The 88 figure earned is right there with Mrs. Ramona G's last race 89 figure so she rounds out the main group of contenders. For exactas we should also include Golden Orb, who exits a KEY race from which the runner-up and third place finishers both came back from to win stakes.
Make win bets on the contenders at these odds or higher:
Mrs. Ramona G – 5/2
Wise Gal – 3/1
Brattata – 7/2 (which is unlikely)
Radiant Beauty – 4/1 (also unlikely)
Play an exacta consisting of Mrs. Ramona G, Wise Gal, Brattata and Radiant Beauty over Mrs. Ramona G, Wise Gal, Brattata, Radiant Beauty, Night Time Lady and Golden Orb
Published in Ellis Starr's Blog