Friday, 13 April 2018 12:26

Key Bets & Races for Saturday, April 14

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Bridgetown Stakes – Race 8 at Aqueduct - Post Time 5:17 PM Eastern

 

Nootka Sound ships in from Kentucky for Wesley Ward and as most people know Ward is one of the sharpest turf trainers in North America if not the world, having shipped some of his runners from the U.S. across the pond to win prestigious stakes. Nootka Sound did ship to England last spring for the Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot and although highly regarded in a field of 22, sent off at 9 to 2, she finished 17th. Honestly, the absence of Lasix which she used for her 5 length win two months earlier in her career debut may have been a factor, or just shipping to Europe, but in any event when brought back in January at Gulfstream Park in a 7 1/2 furlong turf race (and with Lasix) she again ran a huge race to win in a field of 8, then was flattered when the third horse won and the runner-up finished 2nd in her subsequent start. Ward has no problem racing a filly against males, particularly on turf where finesse matters more than size, and with two exceptional recent workouts since leaving Ward's home base in Kentucky and with veteran Pino in the saddle, the filly who can win on the lead or from off the pace may take some beating here, with coming from off-the-pace the better way to win this from her outside post with three or four others bound to want the lead from the start and possibly at any cost.

 

 

Ambassador Jim has never been worse than 3rd in four races including a win when last seen in October and returning more mature as a three year old adds Lasix for the first time. With Rosario out of town, Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes the call for excellent trainer Clement and the colt's 90 Equibase figure when last seen in the fall matches up perfectly with the 90 best figure Nootka Sound has earned so these two have just about the same chance to win in my opinion.

 

 

Barbarossa is the third horse that is not a need-the-lead type, having rallied from 5th to miss by a neck at the same 7 1/2 furlong trip Nootka Sound ran so well at in her last start. Before that, Barbarossa won by eight at 7 furlongs on turf and after that he finished 3rd in a 75K stakes race at 5 furlongs. This six furlong trip should suit him nicely and so he rounds out the trio we can wager on to win and/or in exactas for a profit.

 

Win Bets: Nootka Sound and Ambassador Jim to win at 2 to 1 or more. Depending on their odds near post time use a "Dutching" tool like the free one at Amwager to help allocate your wagering dollars for the best profit.

 

Exacta: Box Nootka Sound, Ambassador Jim and Barbarossa.

 

Stonestreet Lexington Stakes – Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:34 PM Eastern

In addition to the condition of the track being a factor, with rain predicted, there's likely to be very hot early pace as Battle At Sea, Telekinesis, Seven Trumpets, Magicalmeister and the newly blinkered Gracida may all want the lead from the start and if not the ones that don't get the lead will press the pace and are likely to force fast early fractions.

 

My Boy Jack is likely to get the sloppy or muddy track of his dreams in the Lexington Stakes as rain is predicted and considering how easily he prevailed (by four and one-half lengths) in the Southwest Stakes in February in the mud he should run as well. He earned a 106 Equibase figure in that win then followed it up with a 105 figure when beaten just under a length in the Louisiana Derby after making a visually impressive rally EIGHT paths wide on the turn while going from 10th to second before losing some of his steam and that same late kick timed better in this race which ends at the first finish line gets him the win.

 

Zanesville may be worth considering for many reasons, not the least of which is he opens at 20/1. His only previous try on a sloppy track came last December and he really showed a liking for the surface with a strong win. He returned to win an allowance race in February and last month in the Jeff Ruby Steaks Zanesville was flying late, ending up fourth and beaten just two lengths at the end with a career best 105 figure on par with My Boy Jack.

 

Pony Up finished fast from ninth to end up second in the Jeff Ruby, his best race to date with a 108 figure. John Velazquez gets on for the Pletcher barn which is dominating many of the Derby prep races and the colt has many dirt route stakes winners he calls siblings on the dam's side of his pedigree so could certainly be a factor.

 

Although I don't think they can win, both Honor Up and Greyvitos both could be a factor and should be considered for second and third positions on exacta and trifecta tickets.

 

 

Win Bets: My Boy Jack at 2 to 1 or more.

 

Also definitely consider a win bet on Zanesville at 7 to 2 or more and a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher, as well as a win bet on Pony Up at 7 to 2 or higher.

 

Exactas: My Boy Jack, Zanesville and Pony Up over My Boy Jack, Zanesville, Pony Up, Honor Up and Greyvitos.

 

Trifecta: My Boy Jack over Zanesville, Pony Up, Honor Up and Greyvitos over ALL.

 

Thors Echo Stakes – Race 7 at Santa Anita – Post Time 6 pm Eastern, 3 PM Pacific

Make It a Triple opens at 15/1 and is the perfect horse to either post the upset or to split the two logical favorites, Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday. Make It a Triple was a claimer for his entire career until trainer Craigmyle claimed him for 16K in December out of a strong three length wining effort at this basic six furlong trip on dirt. Trying turf for the first time off the claim, and moving up significantly to allowance company, but against California breds only, Make It a Triple finished third, beaten only a length for the win. Improving once more next time out when moved back to six furlongs on dirt on March 17, the horse ran the best race of his career with a 110 figure. Putting that effort in perspective, when Tough Sunday won the similar Sensational Star Stakes one week earlier, he earned a 111 figure and when Edwards Going Left won the similar California Cup Sprint in January, he earned a 113 figure so it is very likely Make It a Triple fits here although his starting odds are 6 to 10 times those of the other two contenders.

 

Bets: Make It a Triple to win at odds of 3 to 1 or higher, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

 

Exactas: Box Make It a Triple and Edwards Going Left. Box Make It a Triple and Tough Sunday.

 

Trifecta: Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Make It a Triple over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday.

Also Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Make It a Triple.

 

Also Make It a Triple over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday over Edwards Going Left and Tough Sunday.

Coolmore Jenny Wiley Stakes – Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 6:12 Eastern

In an incredibly deep edition of this grade 1 stakes on turf for fillies and mares, likely to be run on a turf course other than firm, Cambodia gets slight preference here as a mare that really likes to win, with a 6 for 12 career mark on the grass including back-to-back grade 2 stakes wins last summer. Following that she wasn't disgraced a bit when 3rd of 14 in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf then a fourth of 11 finish in the grade 1 Matriarch Stakes before taking the four and one-half months off she comes back from today. From her rail draw Leparoux will use her tactical speed to be anywhere from 3rd to 6th in his 12 horse field in the early stages and from there it's just a matter of showing the kind of kick she showed starting with a win in the Gallorette Stakes on Preakness Day last year to get the job done here.

 

Off Limits also put together three straight stakes wins last summer and fall, culminating with a huge effort to win the Grade 1 Matriarch in November. She wasn't 100% tight when returning last month in the Hillsborough Stakes, rallying from 9th of 10 early to be beaten a length and one-half at the end, but in her 2nd start back and with Rosario aboard today as he was for those three straight wins last season, Off Limits is another expected to be rolling in the lane to be in the picture at the end.

 

Dona Bruja was a multiple group stakes winner in her native Argentina and won in her U.S. debut last June in the Grade 3 Mint Julep Handicap before two more excellent efforts for a win and a half-length defeat, the latter coming in the Grade 1 Beverly D. Stakes. Not disgraced when 4th in the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II here at Keeneland last fall, she was given four months off and came back with a roar when wiring the field in February to win the Endeavour Stakes under Jose Ortiz, who was riding her for the 1st time. Now having won off the pace and on the lead and with Ortiz riding back, Dona Bruja rounds out a trio that in my opinion has a slight edge on the rest here any of which can finish 2nd or 3rd.

 

Win Bets: Any of the three win contenders – Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja, can be bet to win at 5 to 2 or more, with slight preference in that order.

 

Trifecta: Instead of an exacta, I think a pair of trifectas are in order because I think at least two of the above mares will finish 1st and 2nd or 1st and 3rd.

 

Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over ALL.

Then also Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja over ALL over Cambodia, Off Limits and Dona Bruja.