Friday, 20 April 2018 12:54

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, April 21

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Primonetta Stakes – Race 6 at Laurel - Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern

The words "PACE DUEL" do not do justice to what is likely to occur in this six furlong sprint with at least THREE and as many as SEVEN horses having an "EARLY" running style. When the smoke clears the four left standing should be Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn, with a slight chance favorite Chalon can hold on for second or third as she is one of the speedballs.

 

 

Anna's Bandit just won the statebred Conniver Stakes, at 7 furlongs over the track and the cut back is very good for her late kick at the distance of two of her previous five wins. Perez has been up for three wins in a row on the filly and her 12/1 starting odds are begging us to take advantage. Limited View opened up by many lengths through the first seven furlongs in a one turn mile last month, settling for 2nd of 8 at the end. Cutting back makes her a presser just like she was one before that last race when taking a nearly identical stakes to this one, except restricted to three year olds only, rallying under Prado (who rides here) from fifth to get up then flattered when the 3rd horse came back to win. Short Kakes won the Xtra Heat Stakes at Aqueduct three weeks ago from off the pace, her 3rd win in her last four starts, and is another who should really love the early pace scenario. Cairenn rallied from 6th of 9 to win by three lengths two back then won even more easily by five lengths 19 days ago and still have improving to do.

 

Win Bets: At 3 to 1 or better I will bet BOTH Anna's Bandit and Limited View to win, adding place bets at 6 to 1 or more. I would consider win bets on Short Kakes and Cairenn at 4 to 1 or more but that appears unlikely to happen. For playing multiple win bets use a "Dutching" tool like the one at Amwager to allocate your betting dollars for the bet profit potential.

 

Exacta: Box Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn.

Trifecta: Box Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes, Cairenn and Chalon.

 

Double: Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes, Cairenn and Chalon in Race 6 with Hallie Belle in Race 7.

Double: Anna's Bandit, Limited View, Short Kakes and Cairenn in Race 6 with Hawksmoor in Race 7.

(There is no value in using the two favorites with each other: Chalon in Race 6 with Hawksmoor in Race 7.)

 

Dahlia Stakes – Race 7 at Laurel - Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern

Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor can win but only Hallie Belle is playable to win, and Hawksmoor may not even hit the board unless Leparoux can get her to relax as Tanya's Gem and I'm Betty G battle for the early lead. Hallie Belle is an exceptionally well bred filly owned by Godolphin who nearly won four in a row between last September and December, winning the Pago Hop Stakes to end the streak. She ran miserably in her 2018 debut at Fair Grounds but may have needed the race and with a very strong workout at Fair Hills on 4/14 I'm counting on that last race being an aberration and the filly rebounding to stakes winning form, opening at 15/1. Hawksmoor appears to hold a class edge dropping out of 3 straight grade 1 stakes in the summer and fall into this non-graded level and can win by repeating either of her runner-up efforts in her last two starts but she is nearly always in front from the start and unless Leparoux can wrangle her back early off the speed duel she could be a bit vulnerable late as she was in her last three races when leading with an 8th of a mile to go, settling for 2nd in the two most recent of those efforts.

 

Win Bets: Hallie Belle to win at 3 to 1 or more, a true KEY LONGSHOT BET. Add a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher.

 

Exacta: Box Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor.

 

Double: Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor in Race 7 with Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor in Race 8.

Weber City Miss Stakes – Race 8 at Laurel – Post Time 4:40 Eastern

Blue Union Rags went right through the first allowance condition last out on 3/3 following a strong maiden win, both routes over the track and both since Vargas took over riding. She's still improving, is in the top John Servis barn and can continue her winning ways to earn her first stakes win here in her current form and with a very mature off the pace running style. Layla Noor has only one knock compared to Blue Union Rags and that is she is coming back from nearly five months off whereas Blue Union Rags was last seen seven weeks ago. Layla Noor ran in a dirt route just twice before, winning powerfully at Laurel in November then finishing a decent third in the Demoiselle Stakes in December. Training well for Delacour, who has won with 4 of his last 8 starters coming back from 4 months or more in a dirt route, she is also reunited with Lynch, up for the win but not the defeat, and if she is ready to run as she did last fall at Laurel, she has every right to win.

 

Bets: Blue Union Rags to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more. Also bet Layla Noor if she goes to post at 3 to 1 or higher.

 

Exactas: Box Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor.

 

Doubles: Blue Union Rags and Layla Noor in Race 8 with Murad Khan, Ring Weekend, Celebration and Doctor Mounty in Race 9.

 

Henry S. Clark Stakes – Race 9 at Laurel – Post Time 5:10 Eastern

 

Murad Khan can post the upset although this is a fairly deep field. He opens at 10/1, gets the rail and makes his 3rd start in the U.S. and 3rd off a layoff, so the cycle suggests improvement. He posted the 22 to 1 upset in a tough 2nd level allowance field at Gulfstream Park last month and in Europe won at this mile turf trip three times so now that he's back in winning form he has every right to come right back with another victory. Celebration makes his U.S. debut today, last seen in October in Ireland winning at 7 furlongs on grass in a field of 13. He's never raced a mile but is training forwardly for a very good, underrated trainer in Abbott, and with Leparoux signed on if he's anywhere near his 12/1 odds at post time you can be sure I will be betting him, perhaps heavily. Doctor Mounty is another who opens at double digit odds which make him very playable. He fell on the turn in the Tampa Bay Stakes in February so that race can be ignored but before that he won a classified allowance race with a strong effort. Considering he's trained by Shug McGaughey and Boyce rode him to two of his last three wins, one at Laurel in a race scheduled for turf but moved to the main track, we don’t want to be kicking ourselves after the race for not wagering at least a few bucks on this horse with a decent 5 for 15 career record. Ring Weekend rounds out a quartet of contenders but opens at the lowest odds by far of the group, 7 to 2. He's earned over $1.5 million and has won multiple graded stakes but he is 7 now and although the last time he didn't run in a graded stakes he won prior to that he lost two non-graded stakes attempts with no excuse. He was very wide from a poor 11 post last out so will get a better trip today and could return to top form.

 

Win Bets: Any of the three win contenders who might go to post at high odds – Murad Khan, Celebration and Doctor Mounty, at 4 to 1 or more, adding place bets at 8 to 1 or higher.

 

Exacta: Box Murad Khan, Celebration, Doctor Mounty and Ring Weekend.

 

 

Doubles: Murad Khan, Celebration, Doctor Mounty and in Race 9 with ALL 11 horses in Race 10.

Doubles: Ring Weekend in Race 9 with American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code in race 10.

 

 

Federico Tesio Stakes – Race 10 at Laurel – Post Time 5:40 Eastern

American Lincoln decimated a field, albeit only of five horses, but 18 lengths last month at Aqueduct, at this nine furlong trip. That was his 2nd start as a 3 year old and a huge improvement off his previous when 3rd behind Holland Park. Shipping down from New York for Linda Rice, American Lincoln brings Junior Alvarado to ride, up for the win and giving up a whole day of races at Aqueduct. The colt by Street Sense out of a Smart Strike mare is bred to be a good one and any improvement off that last race can get him the win and add to Rice's very high 33% win rate with starters back-to-back in the past year. Holland Park has been off since his sharp win in February before being flattered nicely by American Lincoln. He is bred to be ANY KIND by Tapit out of champion Round Pond, who has already produced a multiple stakes winner in Long River. With an exceptional 2nd best of 75 half-mile drill before leaving McLaughlin's base at Belmont and with local jockey Vargas aboard, Holland Park has every right to improve as markedly today off his last race as American Lincoln did off that same race. Split Verdict improved nicely 2nd time out last month to win at a mile around one turn at Aqueduct and is another shipper, this from the fine Violette barn and bringing New York rider Carmouche along. The colt showed good tactical speed in that win and could be close to the likely hot pace set by possible dueling leaders Not Fake News and Navy Commander so could make the lead in the stretch before the closers get into high gear and he could hang on from there. V.I.P Code is the local runner I'll consider a contender, having just won the Private Terms Stakes, only the 2nd two-turn try of his career and first of the year. The 101 Equibase figure is the BEST last race figure in the field and as Quinones rides back we must respect the colt's chances to run two "A" races in a row.

Morning line favorite Still Having Fun finished 4th at 3 to 5 with an excuse in the Private Terms so can be used on exacta tickets as he can rebound but he's no standout. Noble Commander tries two turns for the first time but is undefeated in two starts. Diamond King lost the jockey the only previous time he tried two turns but he's won 3 of the other four races in his career. Takedown rallied from far back to win an allowance race over the track and has a shot to get a piece.

 

Win Bets: Bet American Lincoln and Holland Park at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or higher. Consider a win bet on Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code at 4 to 1 or more.

 

Exacta: American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict and V.I.P. Code over American Lincoln, Holland Park, Split Verdict, V.I.P. Code, Still Having Fun, Noble Commander, Diamond King and Takedown.

 

For a smaller amount, play the reverse of the exacta above as well.