Friday, 09 September 2016 05:08

Papo Picks the One Dreamer Stakes at Kentucky Downs

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kentuckyBy Papo Morales, AmWager

Race 8 One Dreamer Stakes 1 mile 70 yards

A contentious field of ten fillies and mares looking to take the winner’s share of the $150,000 purse racing over the undulating Kentucky Downs turf course. Morning line favoritism falls on Annulment (5-2) for trainer Vicki Oliver.

The Broken Vow mare has been a graded stakes performer throughout her career, albeit many of those races were at distances longer than Saturday's race. In 2016 she has started five times and while she has run well in those races, she has yet to find the winner’s circle. She did run third in this race last year but I think she is better with more real estate to work with. For that reason, I will play against her for win honors.

I can see four fillies in this race contending for win honors and will be using all four on my multi-race wagers. From the rail out they are Fleet Bertie (12-1), Entrechat (7-2), Inside Out (10-1), and No Fault of Mine (3-1).

Fleet Bertie is an Afleet Alex filly that tasted turf for the first time in her last start. She took to the grass fleetingly as she won going away by six lengths. While that race was only a $40k optional claimer, the horse that finished second came back to win in her next start. Fleet Bertie has always shown talent and has finished in the exacta in five of nine career starts. Despite not racing since June 24th, she shows a good work pattern coming in. She will have to take another step forward to prove good enough to win this race but she is capable and the price will be right.

Entrechat, for trainer Neil Drysdale, ships in from California for this race. Her record in the Golden State was solid with three wins, two seconds, and two thirds in 12 career starts. Entrechat failed to hit the board in her last start in the Osunitas Stakes when she was never comfortable and fought her jockey for a good portion of the race. Back to her regular rider, Prat, I would expect a much better effort from her today. She has run well on the Santa Anita downhill turf course, which may elevate her chances at Kentucky Downs, whose course is anything but flat. Entrechat has good tactical speed and I expect her to be right there at the wire.

Inside Out is an interesting longshot for trainer Arnaud Delacour. The Colonel John filly sold for a solid $200k at the 2014 OBS March sale, a price that was substantially higher than her sire’s $64.9k average. If you focus only on her mile races, you see that she has a record of three wins, two seconds, and a third in six starts. She will be tested for class in this race but Delacour is a 29% winning trainer and he spots his stock well. Three bullet workouts coming in only adds to the intrigue.

The last horse of mention is No Fault of Mine who is coming into this race after running in three consecutive graded stakes. She did not run badly in those races but the class of horses she was facing may have been a bit beyond her scope. She is cutting back in distance for today’s race, which may enhance her closing kick. I do not believe we have seen the best of this filly on the turf, as she has only run on the lawn three times despite having 11 career starts. Her morning line price is a bit short on value but she is a win contender. It will be No Fault of Mine if she wins this race and she’s not on your tickets.

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