Friday, 15 June 2018 12:08

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, June 16

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Preface: Looking back at last week's blog, at first glance I was disappointed as none of the recommended win bets came through. Then after reviewing the charts of those races I noted Talk Veuve to Me made the lead with a quarter mile to go and although second was beaten by the Kentucky Oaks winner and four clear of the next horse. In the Manhattan, Manitoulin lost a three horse photo by two necks at 30/1 and Fashion Business was another neck back at 43 to 1 and in the Honeymoon Stakes at Santa Anita, Animosity went to post at 10/1 and led with a quarter mile to go then settled for second. In the Belmont, I was wrong taking a shot against Justify but I'd do it again over and over with an odds-on favorite. Good Luck today!

 

Ginger Punch Stakes – Race 5 at Gulfstream Park- Post Time 2:47 PM Eastern

 

Madame Uno opens at 6 to 5 odds here based on three wins in a row including a similar stakes race following joining the Fawkes barn in January. However, she had no excuse for a 6th of 11 finish following that and then she went on the bench for nearly two months. On the other hand, she was beaten just three lengths and that last race has turned out to be a key race from which the 2nd and 3rd finishers returned to finish 2nd and 1st, respectively, in another stakes race. On the other, other, hand, Madame Uno earned both the wins leading from start to finish and was 2nd early in the other and she wears blinkers to will be in front early or up close to what may be a HOT early pace because from the seven post Magalie has to go as that's the only way she can win.

 

The better value lies with a trio of other runners and a longshot. Admiral's Win won three back the last time he faced Florida breds only as he's doing here and that effort earned a 99 figure as good as the 101 Madame Uno earned in her statebred stakes win in March. Batista was up for her last three wins and this mare has good tactical speed and the rail so I expect her to be third to fifth early and finding a seam late for the win.

 

Bitacora and Princess Victoria both come from the strong Walder barn and although Princess Victoria opens at the much better odds (15/1) so must be used on exacta tickets, Bitacora is the one with a higher probability to win. She was three-quarters of a length behind Admiral's Win in that 2/14 race I think is similar to this race and she won her most recent start with Gaffalione up as today. She also finished 2nd , beaten a half-length, in last year's running of this race. It must be noted, however, she has nearly twice as many 2nd place finishes (7) as wins (4) in her career.

 

Warranty opens at 3/1 and deserves a lot of respect having won three straight on turf, the last two at Gulfstream. Privately purchased since her last win on 1/21, and with her last race 102 Equibase figure one of the top in the field, she may not be a great win bet compared to others but must be used on any tickets we play.

 

Win Bets: Admiral's Win to win at 3 to 1 or more

For smaller amounts, Bitacora at 7 to 2 or more, Warranty at 7 to 2 or more.

I was going to skip a win bet on Princess Victoria but as she opens at 15/1 and is running first off the Walder claim we might end up kicking ourselves if we didn't bet a few dollars to win and place.

 

Exacta Bets: Admiral's Win and Warranty over Admiral's Win, Madame Uno, Bitacora, Warranty, Princess Victoria and Magalie.

 

Exacta Bets: Bitacora over Admiral's Win, Madame Uno, Warranty, Princess Victoria and Magalie and ALSO the opposite, which is Admiral's Win, Madame Uno, Warranty, Princess Victoria and Magalie over Bitacora.

 

Obeah Stakes – Race 7 at Delaware Park - Post Time 4:15 PM Eastern

 

Mannerly is unlikely to go to post anywhere near her 10/1 starting odds as she was 5 to 2 last time out in a tough allowance field at Keeneland, but she is still likely to go to post well above odds that make sense given her high probability to win. The filly is 2 for 4 on turf and 2 for 5 on dirt and if you take out the three sprints that started her career and look at routes only she is 2 for 4 on turf and 2 for 3 on dirt. With very consistent 99, 98 and 96 Equibase figures in her last three victories, with a good off the pace running style, with veteran Pino riding and coming back off a short rest while having earned three of her four wins off similar short rests, she could take some beating.

 

A Place to Shine is another opening at 10/1 with a much higher chance of success than is suggested by those odds. Second in her most recent start on 5/12 off a five month layoff, in a stakes and with a career best 97 figure, A Place to Shine has a lot of upside here and is very consistent to boot with nine first or second place finishes from 15 career main track starts. She put in a splendid half-mile drill coming into the race which was the 2nd best of 68 so she's ready to run big.

 

Power of Snunner drops in class having faced much tougher in the Grade 3 DuPont Distaff on Preakness weekend. She won this race last year on an IDENTICAL pattern and has shown she can snap back to winning form previously. Fuhriously Kissed and Teresa Z have small chances to be part of the exacta so we'll include them.

 

Win Bets: Mannerly to win at odds of 5/2 or more.

Add a win bet on A Place to Shine and on Power of Snunner at odds of 7 to 2 of more.

 

To bet more than one horse to win, use a DUTCHING TOOL like the one available for free at Amwager as it helps allocate your win bets in the most efficient manner possible.

 

Exacta Bets: Mannerly, A Place to Shine and Power of Snunner over Mannerly, A Place to Shine, Power of Snunner, Fuhriously Kissed and Teresa Z.

 

You can consider playing the opposite of that exacta as well, but for a smaller amount. The reason for doing this is not only coverage but we win twice if the exacta consists of two of the top three picks.

 

Dancing Renee Stakes – Race 9 at Belmont Park - Post Time 5:50 PM Eastern

Still There is a standout in my opinion here and opening at 4 to 1 with Holiday Disguise opening at 6 to 5 and likely to go to post as the prohibitive favorite, this is an opportunity a low odds overlay. Still There is a perfect two-for-two in her career and won about as easily as a horse can win last month (5/27) over the track, she was 7 1/2 lengths in front and geared down about 70 yards from the wire. That win came in a 10 horse field of NY Breds and these are no tougher plus she's improving and Cohen rides her right back after getting along with her sensationally last time out. Kobiskie wins nearly 33% of the time back to back, about the same as Rice, who trains favorite Holiday Disguise, and the only reason Still There opens at 4/1 is the perception of a class edge on the part of Holiday Disguise, who has won four stakes races but who is NO faster (best figure 105) than the improving Still There.

 

Win Bets: Still There at 3 to 2 or higher, a true KEY BET on the day.

 

Exacta Bets: Box Still There and Holiday Disguise the most times, then also box Still There and Absatootly, Still There and Cozzy Spring and Still There and Picco Uno.

 

Race 10 at Woodbine - Post Time 6 PM Eastern

 

Dakota Diva is a STANDOUT play in this maiden field. She debuted last August in a turf sprint at Laurel and rallied from 10th to 5th after breaking slowly then in her 2nd start in one of those deep maiden races at Kentucky Downs (with a $135K purse) she finished fast again, from 10th to 3rd. given the fall and winter off to grow up, Dakota Diva returned on 5/25 at a mile, off an eight and one-half month layoff, which is a very tough task even though the one mile turf trip at Woodbine is a one-turn race. She was well regarded at 5/1 in a 12 horse field and broke 6th of 12, was in contention only a length and one-half from the lead with a quarter mile to go, then through no fault of her own or her jockey completely lost any path she might have had until too late. It was a HORRIBLE trip and still near the wire when she did get a chance to stretch her legs she closed for third and galloped out on top on the turn. Likely to improve a TON 2nd off the layoff and with a HUGE clean run on the outside in this one-turn mile and one-eighth trip she's bred to adore as she's by Cape Blanco out of a Cozzene mare, we can expect a ton of improvement. As she may get lost in the shuffle in this 11 horse field, we may get decent odds to boot.

 

 

Ambitious Moon finished from 8th to 2n in that same race, her 3rd career start, 2nd on turf and 2nd off a layoff. She got within a head of the leader with an 8th of a mile to go and although she did not go on she was game to the wire. With first time Lasix and also with a good outside post, she should run as well or better.

 

 

Love Thy Kitten (2n in her last start, on turf), Via Ann (4th in the common race with Dakota Diva after making the lead with an 8th of a mile to go) and Show Girl (2nd in her last start) all should be used on exotic tickets played.

 

 

Win Bets: Dakota Diva to win at 2/1 with a place bet added at 4 to 1 or more, a true KEY BET on the day.

Make a second win bet, on Ambitious Moon, at odds of 4 to 1 or more.

 

Exacta Bets: Dakota Diva over Ambitious Moon, Love Thy Kitten, Via Ann and Show Girl.

Play the exact opposite of that bet as well, which is Ambitious Moon, Love Thy Kitten, Via Ann and Show Girl over Dakota Diva.

 

$0.20 Trifecta: Dakota Diva over Ambitious Moon, Love Thy Kitten, Via Ann and Show Girl over ALL.

Then also, Ambitious Moon, Love Thy Kitten, Via Ann and Show Girl over Dakota Diva over ALL.