Friday, 10 August 2018 12:06

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, August 11

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Flaming Page Stakes – Race 6 at Woodbine - Post Time 3:38 PM Eastern

 

It always nice when the reason for a turnaround in a horse's form jumps off the page, and so it is with Giovannna Blues, who took blinkers off after six clunkers wearing them and who rallied from last of nine, into a horribly slow pace, to get 2nd at 20/1 last month in a turf marathon like this one. Pino was up for the first time and follows the mare up from Maryland for Dickinson. The mare earned the BEST last race Equibase figure in the field, 99, and should improve 2nd off a two month layoff as well so opening at 6 to 1 is the key to profit here.

 

Bets: Giovanna Blues to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

Exactas: Giovanna Blues over Daring Duchess, Creative Thinking, Lottie and Liberty Kitten.

Also, play the reverse of that exacta in case Giovanna Blues is a bit too late and ends up second again.

 

Fourstardave Handicap – Race 8 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:02 PM Eastern

 

Made You Look was a decent horse in his nine career starts before his last start of 2017 in July, winning the With Anticipation Stakes as a two year old and the Dania Beach Stakes as a three year old, both graded stakes on turf. After four poorer efforts he was given 10 months off, returning in May in the care of Chad Brown and winning with a career best 106 Equibase figure. Improving off that race although not wining when 2nd and beaten a length in the Grade 3 Poker Stakes in June, Made You Look earned a very strong 115 figure as good as Heart to Heart earned nearly winning the similar G1 Shoemaker Mile in his most recent start and one point better than Yoshida earned winning the G1 Turf Classic Invitational in May before venturing to Ascot. Considering there are very few G1 races on the grass for two year olds, the With Anticipation win here at Saratoga two years ago was equivalent to a grade 1 effort and the colt should improve once again in his third start off a layoff so in spite of being the third choice on the morning line is the one to beat.

 

Delta Prince has had a lot of starts and stops in his career, running just eight times in three years. However, he's NEVER been worse than third and is a Grade 2 Stakes winner. Like Made You Look, Delta Prince should improve off his last effort in June which followed nine months off. From a tremendous family that includes champion Royal Delta ($4.8 million in earnings) and being a true miler, with a 4 for 5 record at the trip, this horse who earned 116 and 115 figures last year before going on the shelf can improve significantly back to that level off his 106 effort last out and has a very strong chance to succeed.

Favorites Heart to Heart and Yoshida can win but both have enough issues to split them in exactas and try to beat them with win bets on others.

 

Bets: Made You Look and Delta Prince to win at 2 to 1 or more. To bet more than one horse to win and to allocate your betting dollars for the best reward use a dutching tool, like the free one at Amwager.com

 

Exactas: Box Made You Look, Delta Prince and Yoshida.

Box Made You Look, Delta Prince and Heart to Heart.

Pick 3:

Race 8 – Made You Look, Delta Prince, Yoshida and Heart to Heart

Race 9 – Patternrecognition, Always a Suspect, Phi Beta Express, Mask and Breaking the Rules

Race 10 – Blacktype and Mr. Cub

Note: If you want to cut the cost of the ticket down, use only Patternrecognition and Always a Suspect in Race 9.

 

Race 9 at Saratoga - Post Time 5:40 Eastern

 

Since I am playing the race as part of the pick 3 started in race 8 we can also make some bets here because the two main contenders may go to post at odds worth a wager or two. Always a Suspect is a four year old with a lot of life left who was just claimed for $40K by Diodoro, an exceptionally sharp trainer off the claim and actually overall. The gelding had only been entered for a claiming price once before that last start on 7/21, on 6/17, but no one claimed him as he finished fast from 9 lengths back to 4th, beaten just under two lengths. Improving markedly last month here at Saratoga, Always a Suspect gamey fought down the lane to win by a neck over Forge, a stakes level horse, with a decent 103 figure he can improve upon and that puts him in range of the top contenders here, most who open at much lower odds than his 8/1. With Cohen riding very well when Diodoro gives him a leg up, this tough sprinter who has been first or second in 7 of 16 career main track races could run big right back.

 

 

Patternrecognition opens as the 9 to 5 favorite off a runner-up effort at the level with a strong 108 figure. However, he now has FIVE runner-up finishes in his career to go along with just two wins and has been beaten at 6 to 5 or so four times in eight races. I will have to use him as a win contender for pick 3's but otherwise let's hope Always a Suspect runs big as expected.

 

Bets: Always a Suspect to win at 5 to 2 or higher.

 

Exacta: Box Always a Suspect and Patternrecognition

Then also Always a Suspect and Patternrecognition over Always a Suspect, Patternrecognition, Breaking the Rules and Spikes Shirl.

 

Note: Although I am including Phi Beta Express and Mask in the pick 3 ticket recommendations in race 8 because of the value offered by most of the contenders in race 9 and 10, I am otherwise not using them on exacta tickets in this race.

 

Lure Stakes – Race 10 at Saratoga - Post Time 6:18 Eastern

 

Postponed from last week when torrential rains fell on Saratoga, the Lure Stakes offers a poor favorite and second choice in my opinion. Projected (5/2 morning line) has nine runner-up finishes to go along with six wins in his career and finished 2nd in two identical non-graded stakes this year with no excuse. Inspector Lynley also has more second place finishes (5) than wins and has lost five straight, three of those allowance races and not even stakes.

On the other hand, Mr. Cub not only has won two of his last three, including a non-graded stakes like this, he ran huge to streaking Mr. Misunderstood when last seen in the G2 Wise Dan Stakes in June, fading late to miss by a half-length. He's the lone speed here and Landeros can get him on the front end from where they can slow the pace and kick on nicely just as he did in the Opening Verse Stakes in May, making us a nice profit as he opens at 6 to 1.

 

Blacktype opens at ridiculous 8/1 odds considering he's 10 for 33 in his career and recently surpassed the $800K mark in career earnings. Winner of the G2 Knickerbocker Stakes last fall, he went off form for four races but won his last start and since the last time he won off a losing streak he earned two wins in a row he has to be taken very seriously in this spot.

 

Bets: Mr. Cub and Blacktype to win at 2 to 1 or more.

To bet more than one horse to win and to allocate your betting dollars for the best reward use a dutching tool, like the free one at Amwager.com

 

Exacta: Mr. Cub and Blacktype over Mr. Cub, Blacktype, Projected, Inspector Lynley and Conquest Panthera.