Friday, 14 September 2018 00:00

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, September 15

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Ricoh Woodbine Mile – Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern

 

Lord Glitters is a classy turf horse who ran big in three straight group 1 and group 2 stakes in England this spring and summer then won a group 3 stakes last month. He's on an IDENTICAL pattern to 2015 Ricoh Woodbine Mile winner Mondialiste and that should come as no surprise as Mondialiste was trained by David O'Meara as is Lord Glitters. He gets Lasix and Jamie Spencer is in from Europe, having ridden the horse to runner-up efforts in the Queen Ann Stakes at Royal Ascot (in a field of 15) and the Summer Mile Stakes, beating his stablemate Suedois by a nose for 2nd. It must be noted Suedois came in from Europe for O'Meara to win a grade 1 race, the Shadwell Turf Mile, last year. With two of his last four efforts earning him 122 Equibase figures that are by far top in the field, Lord Glitters should take some beating.

 

That being said, big changes in form are possible from Good Samaritan on the return to turf, where he started his career, winning his first two starts, on the Woodbine sod including the Summer Stakes. Rosario was up for those races, in which he ran without blinkers, which are removed today, with Rosario getting back on after a two race absence. Showing he can run on turf as a two year old and on dirt earlier this year when winning the New Orleans Handicap with a 116 figure competitive here if repeated, Good Samaritan is a second horse worth considering for a win bet, opening at 10/1.

 

Delta Prince is a turf miler to be sure, with four wins and two second place finishes in six starts at the trip. Castellano has been up for the last two, the first of which came after nine months off and was a win on the Woodbine turf at this mile trip in the Grade 2 King Edward. He was the only horse to close into lone frontrunner Voodoo Song last out in the Fourstardave, improving to a career best 117 figure, and any step forward 3rd off the layoff makes him a contender as well.

 

I'll consider Mr Havercamp (with inferior figures of 104 and107 compared to the top three contenders), Oscar Performance (who was pulled up last out but who won the Poker Stakes at a mile prior to that) and Stormy Antarctic (a European shipper like Lord Glitters who hasn't been facing the same quality as that one but may be good enough for a minor award) for second on exacta tickets.

 

Bets: Lord Glitters to win at 3 to 2 or higher, a low odds key overlay win bet.

For a smaller amount, consider a win bet on Good Samaritan at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.

 

Exacta: Box Lord Glitters, Good Samaritan and Delta Prince.

Exacta: Lord Glitters, Good Samaritan and Delta Prince over Lord Glitters, Good Samaritan, Delta Prince, Mr Havercamp, Oscar Performance and Stormy Antarctic.

 

Pick 3 and Pick 4: (Woodbine offers $0.20 bets so we can play a decent pick 4 ticket)

Race 8- Lord Glitters, Good Samaritan and Delta Prince

Race 9-Starship Jubilee, Inflexibility

Race 10- Ikerrin Road, Pink Lloyd, Kingsport

Race 11- English Illusion, Patterson Cross, Hawkbill, Mekhtaal, Tiz a Slam, Utmost, Johnny Bear

 

Canadian Stakes – Race 9 at Woodbine- Post Time 5:27 PM ET

 

I only see two horses that can win this race, Starship Jubilee and Inflexibility, and with the first of the two opening at 10/1 I'll start there. Starship Jubilee is a grade 2 winner in a grade 2 race, the other two of the remaining seven that have won grade 2 or grade 1 races being New Money Honey and Niigon's Eclipse. However, New Money Honey is a FALSE 2nd betting choice opening at 5/2 as she's not the same horse as last year at three when she won a pair of graded stakes. On the other hand, Starship Jubilee, who won the Nassau and Dance Smartly over the Woodbine turf last year, got back into the winner's circle last month off a layoff and pair of defeats and as the type that loves to win, now that she's back in form she can easily run another "A" race, as she did when winning five in a row last year and when putting together two big efforts in a row in January and February. Her last start was against much cheaper but we should consider it nothing more than a paid workout as she was eligible for the starter allowance condition and it was better than a morning drill and her 113 figure from last year's Canadian when she led late before settling for 3rd would make her very competitive if repeated here.

 

That being said, Inflexibility is a legitimate favorite, as she led late and settled for 2nd in the G2 Dance Smartly this year (which Starship Jubilee won last year). She didn't run nearly as well last month in the Beverly D at Arlington but winner Sistercharlie is pretty much unstoppable right now so back at the grade 2 level Inflexibility should be very tough.

 

For the minor awards (which means for use in second on exacta tickets), I'll consider Daring Duchess (part of a likely pace duel with others but who hangs around for second a lot), Niigon's Eclipse (first or second in seven of her last eight), Bletchley (second in the Nassau behind Niigon's Eclipse and capable of putting in a big rally on occasion) and Hallie Belle (scratched out of the Ladies Turf at Kentucky Downs last weekend for this and getting leading jockey Da Silva).

 

Bets: Starship Jubilee to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

Exacta (instead of a win bet): Inflexibility over Starship Jubilee, Daring Duchess, Niigon's Eclipse, Bletchley and Hallie Belle.

 

Exacta: Starship Jubilee and Inflexibility over Starship Jubilee, Inflexibility Daring Duchess, Niigon's Eclipse, Bletchley and Hallie Belle.

 

Consider double and pick 3 tickets if you did not play the pick 3 or pick 4 in race 8 or if none of the contenders won the first leg of the bet.

 

Bold Venture Stakes - Race 10 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:02 PM ET

 

When Pink Lloyd had his winning streak snapped by Kingsport on July 8, Kingsport was getting a six pound break in the weights. That may have been a factor, as may have been the contested pace Pink Lloyd had to deal with after a slow break and rushing up. The same thing may happen today and the beneficiary could easily be Ikerrin Road, who won this race last year with a 107 figure as good as either of Pink Lloyd's last two figures (106 and 104). Ikerrin Road gets a seven pound break from the favorite and got back into winning form last month with a big effort rallying from sixth of nine so is now on an IDENTICAL pattern to his prep before winning this race last year at 12/1. He opens at 15/1 here and is worth betting to be sure.

 

There's not much to say about Pink Lloyd, winner of 16 races in 19 tries. Although many of his wins came in restricted races he has won four open (not restricted) stakes in the past 15 months and although his last loss came at this 6 1/2 furlong trip he's won at 7 furlongs so it's not an issue either. His biggest problem is his tendency to break slowly, which he overcomes most of the time. I won't discount him so will definitely use him on exacta and multi-race tickets like the pick 3 and 4 but certainly we profit a lot more if one of the other two contenders posts the upset win.

 

Kingsport doesn't get a big break in weight like he got two back, today only two pounds lower than Pink Lloyd, but otherwise he could be the beneficiary once more as he cuts back from a route to a sprint just like he did for the win on July 8 and he could be closing into a fast pace. He finished fourth in the route before beating Pink Lloyd in July and this time he's cutting back in distance off a win, beating a very good horse in Melmich (who has earned nearly $1 million) so he must be respected.

 

We should add Yorkton and Sweet Little Man for second and/or third on exacta and trifecta tickets played, the former having finished second in two of his last three and the latter now with 15 runner-up finishes in his career to go along with eight wins.

 

Bets: Ikerrin Road to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 7 to 1 or more.

 

Exacta and Trifecta: Ikerrin Road, Pink Lloyd and Kingsport over Ikerrin Road, Pink Lloyd, Kingsport, Yorkton and Sweet Little Man.

 

Consider doubles if you are not alive in any of the pick 3 or 4 tickets started in earlier races.

 

Northern Dancer Stakes – Race 11 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:36 PM Eastern

 

There are TWO excellent longshot opportunities in this race, English Illusion and Patterson Cross, although for the pick 4 ticket started in race 8, and any pick 3 or double tickets started since, I am going to use seven horses because the $0.20 bet size allows for spreading in this race.

 

English Illusion is a true "stayer," meaning a horse that can run as far as the day is long. He won at 12 furlongs on turf last month and he won at 13 furlongs (1 5/8 miles) last fall. Last month when winning at this 12 furlong turf trip, he beat last year's Northern Dancer winner, Johnny Bear, on the square, and that win in the Halton Stakes served as the same prep Johnny Bear used for winning this race last year. The gelding was dropped in to a claiming race for the first time right before that last race, and he was immediately claimed because as a five year old he still may have a fine career on turf. Hernandez got on off the claim and rode him marvelously, and Hernandez and trainer Pion have had superb success at Woodbine the past few years. English Illusion earned a 106 Equibase figure last December at the 13F distance and that's the third best figure in the field so opening at 15/1 I think he's one of two I definitely don't want to miss if he runs big.

 

The other is Patterson Cross, who proved he belonged at this level and marathon distance with three superb efforts in a row last winter (2017), starting that January when leading late and missing by a length to be third in the McKnight Handicap, then missing by a head to world class Wake Forest in the Mac Diarmida Stakes before a neck defeat in the Pan American Stakes behind multiple graded stakes winner Sadler's Joy. He bettered the best Equibase figure (113) from those three efforts two months ago when missing in a four horse blanket finish at Saratoga with a 121 figure then rallied from seventh to second in the stretch in the Johns Call Stakes when he was impeded and finished fourth before being moved up to third when the runner-up was disqualified for interference. That effort earned a 118 figure so Patterson Cross enters the race off the two best efforts of his career so another "A" effort is forecast and as he opens at 10/1 he's very playable.

 

Favorite Hawkbill has run some races good enough to win and some clunkers. Last year in this race he led from the start as the 3 to 5 favorite but got nailed late by Johnny Bear. He ships in from Europe like last year and has run in three straight Group 1 Stakes against horses who would be odds on favorites to win if entered here, so he could be competitive if he's ready but he's tough to bet to win at low odds.

 

Many of these have some small chance to win and a bigger chance to finish second, and so with two of the win contenders opening at double digit odds we can take a shot with some exactas using as many as possible.

 

Bets: Patterson Cross and English Illusion to win at odds of 4 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you.

 

Exacta: Patterson Cross and English Illusion over Patterson Cross, English Illusion, Hawkbill, Mekhtaal, Utmost, Johnny Bear and Tiz a Slam.

 

Also, play the reverse of that exacta, which is Patterson Cross, English Illusion, Hawkbill, Mekhtaal, Utmost, Johnny Bear and Tiz a Slam over Patterson Cross and Tiz a Slam.