Friday, 19 October 2018 08:16

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 20

Written by

 

Maid of the Mist Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont - Post Time 3:42 PM ET

 

Today is Empire Showcase day at Belmont and most of the state bred races are ho-hum affairs consisting of horses who take turns beating one another. Not so for the stakes for two year olds, this one for fillies and the Sleepy Hollow Stakes (Race 8) for males. This race features a field of 12, all running a one-turn mile for the first time, and there are some shots to take with horses who may be coming in under the radar of most bettors.

 

 

Kept True ran the FASTEST of any of these when earning an 87 Equibase Figure in her debut, drawing off by a couple of lengths after showing a lot of maturity when stalking in fourth early and rallying in spite of being bumped at the 3/16 mark. Maragh rides back and she gets a similar outside post to go along with logical improvement physically and mentally off the debut. She opens at 6/1, more than a square price because if we assume most young horses improve at the same rate she still the fastest of this bunch. Sadie Lady opens at twice the odds of Kept True, 12/1, in spite of John Velazquez riding and a strong win last month in her debut when leading from start to finish. She adds Lasix for this race and may have the inside speed to get the lead again and get comfortable, making her tough to catch once more. The 80 debut figure was decent enough that if improved upon she can post the upset. Cartwheelin Lulu opens as the 7 to 2 morning line favorite on the strength of two wins including in a similar stakes for NY breds last month. That win was earned leading from start to finish and earned an 81 figure on par with Sadie Lady but we must note Cartwheelin Lulu earned a 68 figure first time out, so if Sadie Lady similarly improves 13 points she can win and if Kept True improves 10 or more points (even if the others do as well) she's the one to beat. Time Warp opens at hard to ignore 15 to 1 odds because she finished fifth in her last two races. However, a case can be made to ignore those two races and look to her effort three back as representative of what she's capable of. Last out in a two-turn race at Keeneland against open (not state bred) company, she led early and tired late and before that she broke through the gate before the race and was still allowed to run even though she may have expended too much energy before the gates open. Three back, at 7 furlongs, Time Warp stalked in second early and won easily and although she only earned a 70 figure it's very difficult to ignore a McPeek starter in a NY state bred race, a level at which the trained has had a good deal of success.

 

 

For exactas we'll also use She's Trouble and Elegant Zip, the fourth and third finishers in the stakes won by Cartwheelin Lulu last month.

 

 

Bets: Kept True to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

For a smaller amount, Sadie Lady and Time Warp to win at 7 to 2 or more, adding a place bet at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

 

 

As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

Exacta (recommendation 1 – two bets): Kept True over Sadie Lady, Time Warp, Cartwheelin Lulu, She's Trouble and Elegant Zip. Also play the reverse of the above exacta, which is Sadie Lady, Time Warp, Cartwheelin Lulu, She's Trouble and Elegant Zip over Kept True.

 

Exacta (recommendation 2): Kept True, Sadie Lady, Time Warp and Cartwheelin Lulu over Kept True, Sadie Lady, Time Warp, Cartwheelin Lulu, She's Trouble and Elegant Zip

 

Doubles: Kept True, Sadie Lady, Time Warp and Cartwheelin Lulu in Race 7 with Poppy's Destiny, Strive for a Cure, Albie, La Fuerza and True Gold in Race 8.

 

 

Sleepy Hollow Stakes – Race 8 at Belmont Park - Post Time 4:15 PM Eastern

 

Albie ran very well in his debut, not only because he won in a route, and on turf, without a prep first, but because he did so with a lot of maturity as he stalked the pacesetter in second then took over with an eighth of a mile to go and drew off a bit. The 92 Equibase figure is the best last race figure in the field and since it was his debut we can expect even better. I have no concern about him running as well on dirt as his dam (a Thunder Gulch mare) has produced dirt route winners and trainer Dilger is off to a very good start at the meeting, with a 4-1-2 record from 11 starts at the meeting and a very strong 12 for 60 record on the year. He opens at 12/1 which is way too high to ignore for a legitimate win contender. True Gold must draw into the race from the also-eligible list but if he does he's got a nice shot as he followed morning line favorite Dugout around the track in second in the similar NY Breeders' Futurity Stakes last month. Dugout won't be able to lead from start to finish as he did last out as there are AT LEAST four, possibly six, other horses with having the lead from the opening bell on their minds. Before that race, True Gold finished very well from sixth to miss by a nose and if he gets into the race we can expect that kind of closing kick and improvement off the 88 figure earned in that race which may be good enough to win. Strive for a Cure shipped in to NY from trainer Capuano's base in Maryland to win with a big rally from eighth last month in his debut then shipped back out for three drills. He ships back in and can improve a lot off the 76 figure effort with a fast pace in his favor so opening at 15/1 he must not be ignored. Poppy's Destiny finished second to a six length runaway winner in the Bongard Stakes last month after winning his debut and he's another who could be passing many here in the late stages. La Fuerza was third in the NY Breeders' Futurity, less than two lengths behind runner-up True Gold. He won the first two starts of his career in June and July including a NY Bred stakes race then won another on 9/8 before the Futurity so his 8/1 morning line makes him hard to ignore, particularly with John V riding for Pletcher.

 

Bets: Albie to win at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

If True Gold draws in, a win bet at 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

For smaller amounts, win and place bets on Strive for a Cure at 5 to 1 or more.

 

As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

Exacta: Box Poppy's Destiny, Strive for a Cure, Albie, La Fuerza and True Gold.

Exacta (option 2): Albie over ALL and (the reverse) ALL over Albie.

"IF" True Gold draws into the race, I plan on expanding the above to Albie and True Gold over ALL and (the reverse) ALL over Albie and True Gold.

 

Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:57 PM ET (with Doubles to Race 8–The Raven Run Stakes)

 

Superiority Complex fits the NW2X allowance conditions perfectly as she won her U.S. debut in August on turf at Arlington Park at the one lower NW1X level. Although not disgraced after that when 4th in a non-graded stakes at Woodbine on the all-weather surface, for the most part that race is irrelevant and it's the 8/18 effort which is the one to take note of and to predict improvement from. That effort earned a solid 99 Equibase figure, better than the 95 figure 2/1 morning line favorite Peru earned in her most recent start, also a win, and since Superioritycomplex was successful at 10 furlongs in Europe and is bred to run all day and then some (by Hard Spun out of a Galileo mare) there are no doubts if she improves or repeats that 8/18 effort she can win in an upset, opening at 10/1. Shezaprado won at a mile and five-sixteenth at Kentucky Downs on 9/6 then ran in the $360K Ramsey Farm Stakes and although overmatched finished to split the 10 horse field. Gaffalione rode her in both and rides back and the filly should be making a strong late run here as she goes for her 6th career win in her 18th career race on turf, just one behind the favorite Peru. Peru can't be discounted as a win contender but will be overbet like she was last month when winning at 4 to 5. That win came in a starter allowance race and prior to that she won at this level but was in for the optional claiming price of $62,500 that day, which leaves her eligible to run at the condition again. Jose Ortiz was up for the last win and rides back and except for being a poor win bet she must be considered a contender for all wagers involving this race.

 

Bets: Superioritycomplex to win at odds of 5 to 2 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or higher.

For a smaller amount, Shezaprado to win at 3 to 1 or higher.

 

Exacta: Box Superioritycomplex, Shezaprado and Peru.

Exacta: Superioritycomplex over ALL and also (the reverse) ALL over Superioritycomplex.

 

Doubles: Superioritycomplex, Shezaprado and Peru in Race 8 with Alter Moon, Chauncey and Moonshine Memories in Race 9.

 

Doubles: Superioritycomplex, Shezaprado and Peru in race 8 with Alter Moon, Chauncey, Moonshine Memories, Divine Queen, Shamrock Rose and Nootka Sound in Race 9.

 

Race 12 at Woodbine - Post Time 6:45 PM ET

 

Salieri won an identical race at the first allowance level and 7 furlong trip on the main track on 8/25 but was disqualified because, when full of run and blocked, he bulled his way through horses. He was 7/2 that day but opens at 10/1 here and his two race since are considered completely irrelevant as both were on turf. Back on the main track if he can run back to the 8/25 effort and rock solid 96 Equibase figure he can post the upset. Chiricahua Signal also moves back to the main track after an irrelevant turf try, having won three back although at a lower level but with a 94 figure under Kimura, who rides back. Trainer Ensom is having a huge meeting with 65 first or second place finishes from 163 starts and the gelding can be competitive with his best effort. Blu Without You is a nice longshot play opening at 20/1 as the Fairlie barn has been stealthy and quietly posting a good number of upsets at the meeting. The horse just won by four lengths at the 7 furlong trip and although it was a claiming race, because he also won his last race at 7 furlongs on the main track in July his chances can't be discounted here. He broke his maiden in straight maiden company in the summer of 2016 at the trip then was off for 21 months but has a lot of potential to outrun high odds.

 

 

Bets: Salieri to win at 7 to 2 or higher, adding a place bet at 6 to 1 or more. The same for Chiricahua Signal (who also opens at 10/1). For a smaller amount and so as not to be kicking ourselves after the race, Blu Without You can be bet for a least a few bucks to win and place at 5 to 1 or more.

 

As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

Exacta: Salieri, Chiricahua Signal and Blue Without You over Salieri, Chiricahua Signal, Blue Without You, Magical Man, Malibu Secret, Cash Dividend and Waldorf.