Friday, 26 October 2018 09:30

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 27

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Overskate Stakes – Race 8 at Woodbine - Post Time 4:47 PM ET

 

Not So Quiet is an up-and-coming star while some of the others in this race, already proven, are contenders as well but open at much lower than the 5 to 1 he opens at. Not So Quiet is three-for-four in his career, with all three wins earned in dominating fashion leading from start to finish. Hernandez was up for all three wins and rides today and there is little doubt the strategy will be to SEND the horse to the lead form the start and control things on the front end once more. The 114 Equibase figure from the most recent win, on 9/22, is better than ALL BUT ONE of the career Equibase figures likely heavy favorite Pink Lloyd has earned in his 16 wins and better (by one point) than the 113 figure Kingsport (who opens at 5 to 2) earned winning the Bounty Law Stakes 19 days ago. One of three 3-year-olds in the field, Not So Quiet has defeated older in all three wins and with a pair of scintillating five furlong drills (best of 58 and best of 50) coming into the race could be very tough to beat.

 

Kingsport, who has won 10 of 29 career starts and who has finished second in another seven, certainly is a contender, as is Pink Lloyd, as well as Thor's Rocket, who led late in the Bounty Law and was a neck short of victory on the wire.

 

Bets: Not So Quiet to win at 8 to 5 or higher, a true low odds overlay Key Bet.

 

Exacta: Not So Quiet over Kingsport, Pink Lloyd and Thor's Rocket.

 

Trifectas (which have a $0.20 minimum): Box Not So Quiet, Kingsport, Pink Lloyd and Thor's Rocket.

Not So Quiet over Thor's Rocket over ALL.

Not So Quiet over ALL over Thor's Rocket.

 

Race 8 at Keeneland - Post Time 4:57 PM Eastern

 

Amiral may be something special based on the way he won last month in his career debut at Churchill Downs. In spite of being bothered by another horse at the start, resulting in breaking last of seven, Amiral made a bold move on the turn and drew off to win by four widening lengths. The 99 Equibase figure is more than average for winning at this first allowance level and the win came at this seven furlong trip, which is very difficult to win at first time out so there are no questions about the distance. After taking two weeks off, his first official workout was a sensational 46.8 for four furlongs which was the best of 82 on the day so there's little doubt he's holding his condition and in spite of this race having a big field there are very few other horses that an win.

 

One of those is Midnight Pleasure, who is a three time winner still eligible for the level as one of the wins came in a claiming race and another came in a starter allowance race. Since returning from six weeks off in August, he's run two "A" races in a row to earn 95 and 94 figures, both when rallying from far back and in both drawing off nicely. Landeros rode him last out in victory at this seven furlong trip and another big effort is very likely.

 

For exactas, we'll also use Ballard High (2nd by a nose in a one turn mile at the level last time out) and Mac Jagger (adding blinkers and getting Jose Ortiz off a 4th place effort at the distance and level in New York last month).

 

Bets: Amiral and Midnight Pleasure to win at 2 to 1 or higher.

 

As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

Exacta: Amiral and Midnight Pleasure over Amiral, Midnight Pleasure, Ballard High and Mac Jagger.

 

For half the amount of the above exacta, play the reverse of the exacta, which is: Amiral, Midnight Pleasure, Ballard High and Mac Jagger over Amiral and Midnight Pleasure.

 

Double: Amiral and Midnight Pleasure in Race 8 with Nice Not Nice and Leofric in Race 9.

Hagyard Fayette Stakes - Race 9 at Keeneland - Post Time 5:30 PM ET

 

Nice Not Nice may not be a standout, but he has a much better shot to win then his 10/1 morning line odds suggest. This is because two of the three morning line choices are vulnerable, potentially FALSE, favorites. Prime Attraction (who opens at 2/1) ships in from California and will be bet dropping from grade 1 to grade 3 and facing the likes of Accelerate but his last win came 11 months ago and he beat nothing the process. Hofburg is facing older for the first time off a poor 4th in the Pennsylvania Derby and in his win before that in the Curlin (a restricted stakes) he beat nothing of consequence as well. On the other hand, Nice Not Nice just ran the best race of his career when 2nd in the Ack Ack Stakes at Churchill Downs last month and the horses which finished ahead and just behind him are significant. Winner Seeking the Soul has earned $1.4 million while the horse Nice Not Nice beat by a nose for second, Giant Expectations, has earned $1 million. Gabriel Saez has the key to this horse as he's been aboard five times, earning three wins and two second place finishes, the only poor effort in a very tough field on turf at Kentucky Downs. With excellent tactical speed, Nice Not Nice could be up close early and in the photo on the wire at decent odds.

 

Leofric is the other win contender in my opinion, coming off a third in the Woodward, beaten a nose for 2nd by Gunnevera. Both the winner Yoshida and runner-up are Breeders' Cup Classic bound and since Leofric won two in a row before that, with his Woodward effort and the one before it earning 110 Equibase figures, he is the one to beat in spite of likely being the 2nd or 3rd betting choice at post time.

 

Bets: Nice Not Nice to win at 3 to 1 or more. Leofric to win at 8 to 5 or higher.

 

As always, when making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool with which you can enter the amount you want to spend or the amount you want to win and the calculation of how much to bet will be done for you. Amwager provides a free "Dutching" tool, among other great benefits for the handicapper and bettor.

 

Exactas: Nice Not Nice over ALL and also (the reverse) All over Nice Not Nice.

 

Box Nice Not Nice and Leofric (even though contained in the bet above I think this is worth playing twice).

 

Leofric over Nice Not Nice, Hence and Rated R Superstar. (I have no interest in exactas with the favorites to finish first and second.)

 

Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:10 PM ET (3:10 PM PT)

 

Zusha was best in her most recent race, a sprint at this level and similar distance on 9/29, but she ran into a wall of horses nearing the eighth pole and her jockey could not extricate her to find a path until too late. She gets a jockey change here in a field of horses who not only will set up her late kick nicely but also really are as content finishing 2nd or 3rd as winning.

 

Bets: Zusha to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

 

Exacta: Zusha over Sheza Chattycat, Conquest Flatterme, Hot Autumn and Cute Knows Cute.

For a smaller amount (about half of what you bet on the exacta above), play the reverse of that exacta which is Sheza Chattycat, Conquest Flatterme, Hot Autumn and Cute Knows Cute over Zusha.