Friday, 04 January 2019 13:51

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, January 5

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Ginger Brew Stakes - Race 5 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 2:05 PM Eastern

 

What a Beaut won her only start, four weeks ago at this identical 7 1/2 furlong trip on turf. All eight (who are entered for turf) are newly turned three year old fillies and she opens high at 12/1 because she is the most lightly raced in the field, but that doesn't mean she can't win because she showed a lot of maturity when establishing good early position in third early, five lengths off the leader, and getting up to win by a neck in a field of 12. Lopez rides back and vast improvement is possible off the experience of a race. The 90 Equibase figure earned in her debut is the same as favorite Pivottina earned in her U.S. debut last September and not that far from the 96 earned when third in the Jimmy Durante Stakes in her most recent start, which provides more reasons to believe What a Beaut can win this year's Ginger Brew Stakes.

 

 

Beechwood Ella is the other main contender for betting purposes, making her U.S. debut and third career start. She imported from Europe in November and has put in six local works for Biancone. She gets blinkers and Lasix and Biancone has won with an import in a similar spot, using Maragh as he's doing here as well. She earned the equivalent of a 92 Equibase figure in her 2nd start so fits on all counts.

 

 

Pivottina, Boxwood and Fortunate Girl all can contend but none is a standout by any means.

 

 

Bets: What Beaut and Beachwood Ella to win at odds of 7 to 2 or more. Add a place bet on What a Beaut if 5 to 1 or higher.

 

 

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Exactas:

What a Beaut and Beachwood Ella over What a Beaut, Beachwood Ella, Pivottina, Boxwood and Fortunate Girl.

 

 

Play the reverse of that exacta as well, which is What a Beaut, Beachwood Ella, Pivottina, Boxwood and Fortunate Girl over What a Beaut and Beachwood Ella.

 

 

$0.50 Pick 3: What a Beaut and Beachwood Ella in race 5 with ALL in race 6 with Fancy Dress Party in race 7.

 

 

Glitter Woman Stakes – Race7 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:08 PM Eastern

 

Fancy Dress Party is a standout in this restricted stakes race, having won impressively in her debut last fall at Keeneland when rallying from seventh of 10 and drawing away powerfully, then proving that to be no fluke when drawing off to a two and one-quarter length win near the end of November at Churchill Downs in a field of 10. She's been working at Tampa and I imagine trainer Colebrook sees this spot as no more difficult than the second allowance level the filly is eligible for so ships her to Gulfstream and gets red hot Saez to ride. The logical choice for the runner-up spot is Brunette Princess, who has never been worse than second in three races and who gets John Velazquez to ride.

 

 

Bets: Fancy Dress Party to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more.

Exacta: Fancy Dress Party over Brunette Princes, also BOX Fancy Dress Party and Brunette Princess.

 

 

$0.50 Pick 3: Fancy Dress Party in race 7 with ALL in race 8 with Moon Colony and Bourbon in May in race 9.

$0.50 Pick 3: Fancy Dress Party in race 7 with ALL in race 8 with Royal Urn, Moon Colony, Bourbon in May, Dakota's Dude and Henley's Joy in race 9.

 

 

Kitten's Joy Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern

 

Bourbon in May opens at 10/1 and although that morning line won't hold up because Pletcher trains and leading jockey Saez rides, she will still be underbet relative to her probability to win. Bourbon In May debuted at 5 1/2 furlongs on turf last fall at Keeneland and finished well for second in a field of 10, then improve nicely to win by a pair of lengths in a field of 12 over this course on 12/1, at this 7 1/2 furlong turf trip. Saez was up then as now and the colt is bred to be something special so should continue to improve. The reason his odds will likely remain higher than they should is Henley's Joy opens at 3 to 5. That's just a bad morning line because when winning the Pulpit Stakes over the track on 12/8, Henley's Joy went to post at 6 to 5 and earned a 93 figure, no better than the 93 figure Bourbon in May earned in his debut, that figure tied for the best figure earned by any horse in the field.

 

 

Moon Colony has won his last two turf routes, in October and at the end of November. He ran poorly on dirt in between the wins but that effort is irrelevant. Jose Ortiz rides and the maiden win earned a 92 figure nearly on par with the best figures Bourbon in May and Henley's Joy so Moon Colony, who opens at 8/1,deserves a lot of respect when considering which horses we want to bet to win in this race.

 

 

I wouldn't talk anyone out of ANY other horse in the field given the fact if Henley's Joy goes to post as the prohibitive favorite there could be excellent value on many others.

 

 

Bets: Bourbon in May and Moon Colony to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more. Consider place bets on either or both if their odds are 5 to 1 or more near post time.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

Exacta: Bourbon in May and Moon Colony over ALL.

 

 

Sham Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:04 Eastern / 4:04 Pacific

 

Sueno can post the upset in this race based on the way he took to two-turns last month when winning the Gold Rush Stakes. Having been away from the races for three months, Sueno maturely rallied from fifth to draw off late and earn a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure. Although the Gold Rush was run on all-weather, Sueno proved capable on dirt prior to that with a four and three-quarter length win in a field of 10. Kent Desormeaux gets the mount for the first time on Sueno and that's a very positive angle according to STATS Race Lens. In the past five years, horse trained by Keith Desormeaux which get a jockey change to Kent Desormeaux have won 25% of the time on 72 races and betting those 72 horses to win has returned a healthy 25% profit. The dam has produced four other horses besides Sueno, and all four are dirt route winners, which provide more reasons to suggest Sueno can improve nicely off his first route win last time out and post the upset in this year's Sham Stakes.

 

Gunmetal Gray won his two-turn debut in August by nearly seven lengths. He followed up that effort with a career-best 100 figure earned when second to four and one-half length winner Game Winner in the American Pharoah Stakes in September. Like Game Winner, Gunmetal Gray returned five weeks later to run in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile but he did not run as well, finishing fifth after being as far back as 12th in the 13 horse field. Rested two months in preparation for his three year old campaign, Gunmetal Gray gets the services of Mike Smith and has stakes experience three others in the field lack, including likely favorite Coliseum. As such, if Gunmetal Gray can logically improve off his American Pharoah effort as a much more physically mature three year old, he can run well enough to win this race.

 

Gray Magician broke his maiden impressively in his most recent race, by nine and one-half lengths, but facing stakes competition could be a whole different matter. However, Gray Magician earned a 98 figure while winning at this mile trip and following two months off so improvement is possible. Gray Magician has excellent breeding for the trip as well, as his half-brother Lombo won the 2018 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (in February) at Santa Anita. Grey Magician also showed a lot of maturity in his most recent race as he rallied from third, five lengths back, to win by nearly 10 lengths.

 

I feel I must mention Coliseum as he may be the betting favorite based on his easy six and three-quarter length win in his only race, in which he led from nearly start to finish and earned a field high104 figure. That style may be problematic in the Sham as Savagery puts blinkers back on and will likely be sent to the front from the start. However, Coliseum does have history on his side because his trainer, Bob Baffert, has won 33% of the time (14 for 42) when starting a horse off a debut maiden win in a stakes race over the last five years, including Midnight Hawk in this race back in 2014.

 

Bets: Sueno to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more, adding a place bet at 5 to 1 or more.

 

 

Exacta: Sueno over ALL, and the reverse, which is ALL over Sueno.

Exacta: Gray Magician and Gunmetal Gray over Sueno, Gray Magician, Savagery, Easy Shot and Much Better. (Leaving Coliseum off the runner-up spot because it will be a low paying exacta).