Friday, 18 January 2019 12:56

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, January 19

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Pasco Stakes - Race 7 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:10 PM Eastern

 

It appears Win Win Win and Cave Run are the only two which can win this year's Pasco Stakes, but they open as the morning line favorite at 5/2 and the third choice on the morning line at 7/2 so there may not be a lot of value on win bets. Therefore the main play in this race is a pick 3 to race nine, the Gasparilla Stakes. Still, there may be opportunity for a low odds overlay win bet. Cave Run, who opens at the higher odds of the two contenders at 7/2, has a slight edge over Win Win Win as he won over the track. The win came in his only start, on 12/15, and he not only showed a lot of maturity in victory when relaxing in third in the early stages before rallying to draw off by six lengths, he also earned the best Equibase figure of any horse in the field, 99. With improving to do in his second start and with a good outside post to once again stalk whoever decides to lead early, Cave Run has a big shot to win a stakes in only the second start of his career.

 

 

Win Win Win won the first two starts of his career then finished second, all at Laurel. The runner-up finish came in a stakes and at this seven furlong trip so he does have a slight experience edge over Cave Run. He improved from an 84 figure in his debut to 92 then to 95 last time out so he's likely to run in the range of Cave Run if that one just repeats his last effort, but on the other hand I expect Cave Run to improve in his second lifetime start the same way Win WinWin did in his so perhaps Win Win Win will just be running for second.

 

 

Bets: Cave Run to win at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.

 

 

$0.50 Pick 3 ticket:

Race 7 – Win Win Win, Cave Run

Race 8 – Ponti Scheme, Flossie, Summer Sweet

Race 9 – Molto Bella

 

 

Race 8 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern

 

Flossie is the main play here, with Ponti Scheme and Summer Sweet to be used on pick 3 tickets and exacta tickets. Flossie won her debut last June with a lot of maturity in a 10 horse field at Churchill Downs in a sprint then came back a month later and ran poorly. Not deterred by that effort, the next month she was stretched out to two turns and tried on grass, and voila, she ran huge, leading from start to finish and gamely winning by a head in a 10 horse field. Rested since the end of August and moved to the barn of Correas, the filly finds a weak field for the allowance level and appears to be fit as she's put in six workouts in just over a month. Cannon is an underrated jockey, especially on turf, and the trainer is 2 for 2 in recent history with horses coming back in turf routes off layoffs of 4 to 6 months.

 

 

Bets: Flossie to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

 

 

Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 3:45 PM Eastern

 

This race is playable on its own because the favorite is legitimate and there's a horse opening at 20/1 whose odds should be much lower. Additionally, it offers some nice pick 3 action ending in race 11, the Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes. Central Command is the legitimate favorite, opening at 9 to 5 on the heels of a 9 month layoff following a win in his only start. He's in the Chad Brown barn and Castellano rides and he won that only start last March easily and impressively by four lengths as the 8 to 5 favorite. He's been in steady training for his comeback and his workout three weeks ago (12/29) was superb, the 2nd best of 88 on the day for a half-mile. He finds a lackluster field of horses which are either stuck at the allowance condition or are better in claiming races and Brown continues to win at an above average 26% rate with horses coming back from long layoffs.

 

 

The horse coming in under the radar is Time to Travel, an impressive winner in his 2nd career start in April, 2017 at Gulfstream and at this 7 furlong trip. He got a late start on his career so the connections took a shot at Derby points in the Lexington Stakes but he finished fourth after leading mid-race. He finished 2nd in another stakes, tried turf and failed miserably then was given nine months off. After being beaten 42 lengths he was rested again and when returning last month he ran well enough, setting the pace for the opening quarter mile then fading to fifth in a race he had to need. Since that start, Time to Travel changed barns and today he shows up without blinkers and, more importantly, with Jose Ortiz riding. Likely without blinkers, Time to Travel put in a scintillating 46.4 four furlong work over the track on January 12 and this kind of "blinkers off/ fast workout" pattern cannot be ignored because back in 2017 when winning he earned a 102 figure. As such, Time to Travel is an upset candidate.

 

 

For exactas, we will use three horses who like to hit the board – Star Juancho, Articulator and Empire Power.

 

 

Bets: Time to Travel to win and to place at 4 to 1 or higher.

 

Exacta: Central Command and Time to Travel over Central Command, Time to Travel, Star Juancho, Articulator and Empire Power.

 

Pick 3 tickets: There are three tickets to play starting in this race, one singling a horse in race 11 and one singling a horse in race 9 so if both win and if we get the other two races right we can win the bet three times.

 

 

Race 9 – Central Command, Star Juancho, Articulator, Empire Power, Time to Travel

Race 10 – Mrs. Ramona G., Southern Sis

Race 11 – Dalmore, Forevamo, Mr. Jordan, Noble Drama, Jay's Way, Souper Tapit

The cost of this bet at the $0.50 level if all horses run is $30

 

 

Race 9 – Central Command, Star Juancho, Articulator, Empire Power, Time to Travel

Race 10 – Thinkin Cowtown, Picara, Mrs. Ramona G., Southern Sis, Starship Jubilee

Race 11 – Forevamo

The cost of this bet at the $0.50 level if all horses run is $12.50

 

 

Race 9 – Central Command

Race 10 – Thinkin Cowtown, Picara, Mrs. Ramona G., Southern Sis, Starship Jubilee

Race 11 – Dalmore, Forevamo, Mr. Jordan, Noble Drama, Jay's Way, Souper Tapit

The cost of this bet at the $0.50 level if all horses run is $15

 

 

Gasparilla Stakes - Race 9 at Tampa Bay Downs - Post Time 4:10 Eastern

 

Molto Bella is a standout in this race based on her efforts in July, September and October. She won her only career start at this seven furlong trip in July in career start #2, then nearly two months later ran a much better race even though second, before venturing into stakes company to finish second in the Rags to Riches Stakes, a one-turn mile race at Churchill Downs. The winner of that race was Mother Mother, who has since missed by a head and a neck in the Grade 1 Starlet and finished second recently to multiple graded stakes winner Bellafina in the Santa Ynez Stakes. Likely more mature as a three year old and shipping down from trainer Wilkes' base at Palm Meadows, Molto Bella meets a fairly suspect field and opens at 6 to 1 in a race in which the morning line favorite (7/2), Bella Ciao, finished third in a stakes last month at gulfstream but really didn't run well at all.

 

 

Bets: Molto Bella to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

 

 

Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:47 Eastern

 

Forevamo, opening at 6 to 1 is one of only two entrants in this race to have even won at this nine furlong trip, with horses like second morning line favorite (3/1) Mr. Jordan having a record of 0-3-1 in five races and morning line favorite Souper Tapit (2/1) having a record of 0-2-0 in two races at the trip. Forevamo just won the Zia Park Championship Handicap at the trip, with a career best 107 Equibase figure, very similar to what Jay's Way earned (108) winning this race last year. Jay's Way is the only other horse to have a win at the trip but finished fifth in the Sunshine Millions Classic Preview and 10th in his most recent start (albeit on turf). Meanwhile, Forevamo gets Castellano and a great post (2) to stalk the likely dueling leaders Dalmore and Jay's Way, who are both need-the-lead types, enabling him to win his second stakes in a row.

 

Any number of horses can finish second, including the aforementioned Dalmore and Jay's Way, as well as Mr. Jordan, Noble Drama and Souper Tapit. You'll note one of the pick 3 tickets started in race 9 and ending in this race, used all six horses, because in case Dalmore or Jay's Way gets to the front by themselves, anything can happen.

 

Bets: Forevamo to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

 

Exacta: Forevamo over Dalmore, Jay's Way, Mr. Jordan, Noble Drama and Souper Tapit.

Play the opposite of that exacta as well, which is Dalmore, Jay's Way, Mr. Jordan, Noble Drama and Souper Tapit over Forevamo