Friday, 01 February 2019 14:01

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, February 2

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Forward Gal Stakes - Race 9 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:07 PM Eastern

 

Frond and Feedback stick out against the other seven in this race, with Frond the much better win bet opening at 12/1 compared to 6 to 5 for Feedback. Feedback won impressively in her debut but that was back in August and she hasn’t been seen since so perhaps there were issues. Chad Brown wins at an above average rate off these kinds of layoffs but it’s a big jump from a maiden field to stakes so when the five and one-half months is added it’s tough to consider a win bet on Feedback at prohibitively low odds. The win came at 6 ½ furlongs so she should handle the seven furlong trip and she should be physically stronger as a three year old. On the other hand, Frond won at seven furlongs in her debut and it was just last month. Not only is it difficult to run well, let alone win, at seven furlongs first time out, she showed a lot of maturity when rallying from fifth, seven lengths back, in the early stages. The 82 figure wasn’t much compared to Feedback but Frond adds Lasix, gets a great outside post, and has speed to close into again as Fashion Faux Pas will go very fast from the opening bell. With Leading jockey Saez taking over we have a lot to get excited about.

 

 

Bets: Frond to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

 

 

Exacta: Box Frond and Feedback.

 

 

Trifecta: Frond and Feedback over ALL over Frond and Feedback.

Note: The strategy in playing both the exacta and trifecta is to cover the two contenders if they finish first and second, or first and third.

 

 

Pick 3: (two tickets)

Race 9 – Frond, Feedback

Race 10 – Frosted Grace, High Crime, Call Paul, Seismic Jolt, Zenden, Country Singer

Race 11 – Mihos, Federal Case, Maximum Mischief

 

 

Race 9 – Frond, Feedback

Race 10 – High Crime, Call Paul, Seismic Jolt

Race 11 – Mihos, Federal Case, Maximum Mischief

 

 

Swale Stakes - Race 10 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern

 

Seismic Jolt really improved off his only race as a two year old last summer, returning in the fall to finish second before winning two in a row. The latter of the two came in the Limehouse Stakes over the track, an easy three length win with a 99 Equibase figure just a bit lower than the 101 figures High Crime and Call Paul earned in their most recent races. In the Limehouse, Seismic Jolt relaxed in fourth during the opening quarter mile before taking over and that may give him an edge because there is potential Country Singer, Hard Belle, Take Command, Frosted Grace, Jackson, or any of that group, may all want the lead from the start and any cost.

 

 

Call Paul and High Crime are just as logical, and as probable, as Seismic Jolt but appear likely to go to post at lower odds. Call Paul won at this seven furlong trip when taking the Pennsylvania Nursery Stakes and won the Saratoga Special at 6 ½ furlongs last summer, while High Crime was ridden out to a 7 ¾ length win last month over the track, albeit at six furlongs. He led from start to finish in that race but closed from sixth to second in his debut and does not wear blinkers so likely relax early and be coming on strongly late.

 

 

I can’t completely rule out any number of other scenarios so on one pick 3 ticket started in the ninth race, and on some exacta tickets, we should also use Frosted Grace, Zenden and Country Singer.

 

 

Bets: Seismic Jolt to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Consider win bets on Call Paul at odds of 3 to 1 or more, and on High Crime at odds of 3 to 1 or more.

 

 

Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Exacta: Seismic Jolt, Call Paul and High Crime over Seismic Jolt, Call Paul and High Crime, Frosted Grace, Zenden and Country Singer.

 

 

Also consider the reverse of that exacta, perhaps for a smaller amount. That exacta is Seismic Jolt, Call Paul and High Crime, Frosted Grace, Zenden and Country Singer over Seismic Jolt, Call Paul and High Crime.

 

 

Holy Bull Stakes - Race 11 at Gulfstream Park - Post Time 5:13 PM Eastern

 

Mihos will be my top choice to win this year's Holy Bull Stakes. I would say he is also trying to get on the radar as a top three year old but he has already done that, winning the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park last month. Showing a lot of maturity when rallying from fifth on the far turn, Mihos was still second, two and one-half lengths behind the leader with an eighth of a mile to go in the Mucho Macho Man, before grinding down the leader to emerge victorious by a neck. Improving from an 80 Equibase figure in his debut last fall, to 99 in his second start, then to a field high 105 figure in the Mucho Macho Man, Mihos appears to have all the tools to win the Holy Bull. His sire, Cairo Prince, had his first crop of foals hit the track in 2018 and to date they have fared very well. Six of Cairo Prince's progeny have run in stakes at a mile or more to date, with two of the six winning and another finishing second. With improving to do and already a stakes winner over the track, Mihos looks tough to beat in this situation.

 

 

Federal Case may not yet be a stakes winner but has similar credentials to Mihos in that he won at a mile over the Gulfstream main track in his most recent start. That was near the end of December and in that race Federal Case improved considerably to a 92 figure after earning an 85 in his debut, also a winning effort. Although he has one less race under his belt compared to Mihos, three year olds can improve markedly from one race to the next early in the year.  As such, Federal Case could jump up and be competitive in the Holy Bull. Additionally, a STATS Race Lens angle shows when trainer Todd Pletcher makes a jockey change to jockey Javier Castellano, as is the case here, it is a change worth noting. Over the past five years, this has occurred 372 times, with a strong 26% of those starters winning. Wagering every time this happens yields a 7% profit, which is quite positive given a sample size of that nature. In both starts to date, Federal Case has relaxed in second in the early stages. It’s likely there will be a contested early pace as both Going For Gold and Gladiator King are stretching out and have led in the early stages in recent races.  In this scenario, Federal Case could find himself in the catbird seat and ready to pounce in the stretch for the win.

 

 

Maximus Mischief is a perfect three-for-three in his career. All three victories were powerful efforts in which he led by two or more lengths at the top of the stretch and continued on to win by wide margins. Starting with an 87 figure effort last September, Maximus Mischief improved to a 97 figure effort in October before proving to be one of the top two-year-olds in training last fall when easily winning the Remsen Stakes and earning a 104 figure. The Remsen has turned out to be a "KEY RACE" as two horses behind Maximus Mischief both won their subsequent starts and improved their Equibase figures in doing so. If there is one concern, it is Maximus Mischief hasn't run for nine weeks, whereas eight of the other nine, particularly Mihos and Federal Case, have had the benefit of more recent races. On the other hand, Maximus Mischief's morning workouts since coming to Gulfstream last month have been superb and indicate a horse in top physical condition, as his workout of five furlongs in 58 seconds on January 19 was the best of 57 on the day. As such, Maximus Mischief could pick up in the Holy Bull where he left off last fall, with a graded stakes win.

 

 

Bets:  Mihos to win at odds of 8 to 5 or more.

For a smaller amount, Federal Case to win at 3 to 1 or more.

Exacta: Box Mihos and Federal Case.

 

Note: When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

 

 

Robert B. Lewis Stakes - Race 6 at Santa Anita - Post Time 5:53 Eastern

 

 

Nolo Contesto looks to be a “low odds overlay” because in this short field I think if you ran the race 100 times he would win around 35 to 40 times. That makes him very playable at 8 to 5 or more but his morning line odds are 5 to 2 because Gunmetal Gray opens as the 9 to 5 second choice and Mucho Gusto opens as the 8 to 5 favorite. There’s nothing wrong with either, the former having won the Sham Stakes last month with a visually impressive rally from sixth with an eighth of a mile to go, the latter  coming off a second place finish to five length winner Improbable in the Los Alamitos Futurity in December. Still, NEITHER effort was as good as the effort Nolo Contesto put in, as that earned a 104 figure, in only his second career start, first route, compared to 101 for Gunmetal Gray and 95 for Mucho Gusto. With any improvement at all, even if all three improve at about the same rate, Nolo Contesto is the one to beat in spite of being the third choice on the morning line.

 

 

Bets: Nolo Contesto to win at odds of 3 to 2.

 

 

San Pasqual Stakes - Race 9 at Santa Anita - Post Time 7:23 Eastern

 

Dabster rallied up into second with a quarter mile to go in the San Antonio Stakes last month, a neck behind the leader, then faded to third as Talamo dropped the stick at the 3/16 pole. One race before that in the Native Diver, Dabster missed by a neck to Battle of Midway so a case could be made Dabster had every right to beat Battle of Midway, as well as winner Gift Box (who was a half-length in front of Battle of Midway) if not for the trouble. With three straight 115 Equibase figure efforts coming into this race, which stand up exceptionally well against the 115, 116 and 117 figure efforts Battle of Midway earned in his last three starts, and the 115 figure McKinzie earned winning the Malibu Stakes on opening day of the meeting (12/26), Dabster appears well worth the risk as a win bet, opening at 5 to 1 compared to 5 to 2 and 4 to 5 for Battle of Midway and McKinzie, respectively. For exactas, I’ll also toss in Dalmore, who opens at ridiculously high odds of 20/1 considering he’s lost by less than a length in two straight stakes and is reunited with Desormeaux, who guided him to his best two efforts last year when second in the Cornhusker Stakes (at this distance) and when winning over the track last February.

 

 

Bets: Dabster to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.

For a few bucks, Dalmore to win and place at odds of 5 to 1 or more.

 

 

Exactas: Dabster over Dalmore, McKinzie and Battle of Midway.

Also, play the opposite of that exacta, which is Dalmore, McKinzie and Battle of Midway over Dabster.