Friday, 25 October 2019 11:59

Key Races & Bets for Saturday, October 26

Written by Ellis Starr

Brought to you by Amwager.com, a great legal online wagering website.

Race 7 at Belmont - Post Time 4:07 pm Eastern

Magic Star made my small “horses to watch” list off her maiden win on August 24. Horses rarely go on my list off a win because in my opinion the purpose of such a list is to note horses who had trouble and may finish better in a subsequent start. However, occasionally a horse runs so well in a race I want to follow it. Magic Star is such a horse, as her turf route win in her career debut was not only visually impressive but fast as well. Bumped at the start to begin 10th of 12, she rallied steadily from 10 lengths back, to seven, to three, to power off by two lengths and in spite of encountering traffic at the quarter pole. Jose Ortiz rides back and this filly should win a stakes before too long so should move through this first allowance level quickly. She is likely to be a POOR win bet as she opens at 6 to 5 but she’s a great single to start the pick 3, which turns it into the equivalent of a daily double.

Pick 3:
Race 7: Magic Star
Race 8: Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky, Maximum Security, True Timber
Race 9: Irish Mias, Don Juan Kitten, Buy Land and See, Tiesto, Get Smokin
The cost of this wager at the $1 level is $20

Optional Pick 3:
Race 7: Magic Star
Race 8: Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky
Race 9: ALL (11)
The cost of this wager at the $1 level is $22. We’re leaving Maximum Security off the ticket to maximize profit.

Bold Ruler Handicap - Race 8 at Belmont - Post Time 4:40 PM Eastern

Killybegs Captain rallied from nine lengths back in the early stages of the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash last month and was in front by the time the field hit the top of the stretch in a visually impressive performance. Earning his first graded stakes win with that effort, it must be noted that he had lost six races in a row prior to that and since his last win. However, it must also be noted that the previous win, in the Pelican Stakes in February of this year, was his second win in a row. Now that Killybegs Captain has rediscovered the winner's circle, I think he can do it again because the 109 Equibase Speed Figure he earned in that race is tied for the best last race figure in the field with likely heavy favorite Maximum Security. Additionally, because Killybegs Captain is going to have a fast pace to run at, courtesy of Knicks Go and Diamond King, jockey Eric Cancel (who rode Killybegs Captain perfectly in the De Francis) should be able to get the same kind of effort once again which could lead to the upset victory in this race.

Prince Lucky likes to win races, having won seven of 14 career starts. After taking back-to-back graded stakes in the winter and spring including a career-best 112 figure effort in the Hal's Hope Stakes in February, Prince Lucky went off form and ran badly in two straight races. Returning to the winner's circle in the State Dinner Stakes in July at Belmont, Prince Lucky ran an exceptional race last month in the Kelso Handicap when he led mid-race then battled head-and-head the rest of the way. Although beaten a half-length at the wire, Prince Lucky was three lengths clear of True Timber and the rest of the field and earned a 105 figure. Prince Lucky won his only start at this seven furlong trip and jockey John Velazquez, who has been in the saddle for the horse's last four wins, rides again today. From a good outside post, Prince Lucky will get a great view of the pacesetter and could return to the form with a repeat of his Hal's Hope Stakes effort in February.

After being disqualified from first in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, Maximum Security returned six weeks later with a disappointing second place finish in the Pegasus Stakes before winning the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. Scheduled to run next in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby on September 21, Maximum Security was scratched from that race so there are certainly questions about his ability to maintain top form. However, as he has proven in all seven career starts, when Maximum Security steps foot on the track he is a fantastic athlete, having won six of seven races (disqualified in one of those victories) and having finished second in the other. With figures of 111, 116 and 109 in his last three efforts, Maximum Security should be even more mature towards the end of his three year old season and we can expect another "A" race good enough to win. However, he will likely be the prohibitive favorite.

Bets:
Win Bets: Killybegs Captain and Prince Lucky to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exactas: Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky and Maximum Security over Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky, Maximum Security and True Timber.

Trifecta: Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky and Maximum Security over Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky, Maximum Security and True Timber over Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky, Maximum Security and True Timber.

If Magic Star did not win race 7 here’s a double play for the eighth and ninth.
Double:
Race 8: Killybegs Captain, Prince Lucky, Maximum Security, True Timber
Race 9: Irish Mias, Don Juan Kitten, Buy Land and See, Tiesto, Get Smokin

Awad Stakes - Race 9 at Belmont - Post Time 5:13 PM Eastern

Irish Mias is an exceptionally well bred two year old who finished second in his first two starts, on dirt (although the first was scheduled for grass) before stretching out to two turns on turf in the $200K Laurel Futurity last month. He won gamely by a head and has only upside as the only other sibling (on the dam’s side) was bred by the owner and trained by Motion as he is, winning the Laurel Futurity in 2018 and a turf route winner. From the two post and with Franco riding back, Irish Mias gets slight preference in a fairly wide open field of improving and quality two year olds on the grass with starting odds of 6 to 1.

Don Juan Kitten also opens at 6/1, a homebred by Ramsey Farm from solid turf sire Kitten’s Joy. Although he led from start to finish in his debut he did it on slow fractions, which is all the more impressive when you consider he ran the last quarter mile in under 23 seconds, which is a closer’s style. Franco rode him first out and moves to Irish Mias but Carmouche is competent and trainer Gargan is having a huge Belmont fall meeting so far (9 for 25).

Buy Land and See won as he pleased by eight lengths last month in his first two turn race on turf and second career start, a big improvement off his debut. He rallied from ninth to third in that debut then led from nearly start to finish last time out but may not be a need the lead type. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides back and further improvement in his third career start is possible. He opens at a square price of 9/2 so is another to consider for all wagers we make involving this race.

Tiesto opens as the morning line favorite at 7 to 2, not poor odds but not what they should be in my opinion as he has about the same probability to win as many others. In his debut last month, Teisto rallied from fourth to win going away and as a Mott trainee it’s pretty rare to win first out. He’s certainly got talent and having won on the Belmont turf is a positive factor as well.

Get Smokin shows the same pattern is Buy Land and See as he ran third in a turf sprint in his debut then won second time out in his first turf route. The runner-up flattered him by winning off that race and although he loses Castellano to Talking, Saez takes over and that’s not an issue. What may be an issue, and the reason he’s rated below the other four win contenders, is the race he won as restricted and not open (not restricted) so he may find these a bit tougher than some of the others who won in open company.

Bets:

Win Bets: Irish Mias and Don Juan Kitten to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
Consider a win bet on Buy Land and See at 7 to 2 odds or higher.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Irish Mias, Don Juan Kitten, Buy Land and See, Tiesto and Get Smokin.

Autumn Miss Stakes - Race 7 at Santa Anita - Post Time 6:45 PM Eastern/3:45 Pacific

Great Sister Diane ships in from Florida, Gulfstream Park to be exact, having won three of her last four starts, two of the wins coming off the claim by Crichton. No matter she was a former claimer, Great Sister Diane is stakes quality having just won at $75K stakes in a field of 14 by rallying from fourth and leading the entire last eighth of a mile. Actually, she drew off in that race and the 108 Equibase Figure she earned is the best in this field. That explains why she ships cross country and brings along South Florida jockey Sanchez as well. Another factor of note is Great Sister Dane won that stakes against three year olds and upward but faces just three year olds today, another reason to expect another “A” effort good enough to win, opening at 6/1.

Keeper Ofthe Stars was nearly equally impressive winning an allowance race versus older at Golden Gate on the turf last month with a 106 figure. She’s four for nine now overall and two for four on grass. She likes to lead early but draws the five position and only one of the four horse inside of her in the gate appear to have any interest in leading so Cedillo may be able to put her on the lead or at the worst take up a catbird seat position. Opening at 5 to 1 she’s another with a big shot to win.

Mucho Unusual and Hidden Message round out a quartet with the bulk of the probability to win. Mucho Unusual comes back off a short freshening after a seventh place effort in the Del Mar Oaks, after pressing the pace in third. Winner Cambier Parc came back to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes and before that race Mucho Unusual won the Grade 2 San Clemente Stakes in a field of 10 and as the 5 to 2 favorite so her 6 to 1 starting odds are out of line particularly if the freshening did her good as it appears to have done. Hidden Message opens as the 5 to 2 favorite and can win but I’d prefer one of the other three to do so. She made her U.S. debut in the Del Mar Oaks ad finished second of 13 at nine to one odds. Since that was a KEY RACE from which three horses came back from to win, including Cambier Parc, she can certainly improve in her second start in the U.S. but she’s no standout.

For second on some exacta tickets in this big field I’ll throw in Apache Princess, K P Slickem and Strike at Dawn.

Bets:
Win Bets: Great Sister Diane and Keeper Ofthe Stars at 2 to 1 or more.
Consider a smaller win bet on Mucho Unusual at 7 to 2 or more.

When making multiple win bets, use a "Dutching" tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.

Exacta: Box Great Sister Diane, Keeper Ofthe Stars, Mucho Unusual and Hidden Message.

Exacta: Great Sister Diane, Keeper Ofthe Stars, Mucho Unusual and Hidden Message over Great Sister Diane, Keeper Ofthe Stars, Mucho Unusual, Hidden Message, Apache Princess, K P Slickem and Strike at Dawn.