San Francisco Mile Stakes – Race 9 at Golden Gate Fields – Post Time 7:45 PM Eastern
Keeper Ofthe Stars checks all the boxes when it comes to predicting which horse has the highest probability to win this year’s San Francisco Mile Stakes. A winner of six of 13 career starts on turf, the mare beat some of the top fillies and mares in the U.S. last year twice in a row, first when winning the Buena Vista Stakes in February at this mile trip with a 112 Equibase Speed Figure and second when taking the Gamely Stakes last May with a career-best 115 figure. After a couple of disappointing efforts in June and August, Keeper Ofthe Stars was given time off, returning in top form following eight months off to win on the Golden Gate turf three weeks ago. Having put together back-to-back wins twice in the last 18 months and with a lot of improving to do physically in her second start back from a layoff, this mare (who gets a five pound weight break versus her male rivals) is the one to beat.
Ohio (BRZ) also enters this race off a sharp effort in victory, winning the Cotton Fitzsimmons Mile Handicap at Turf Paradise for the third year in a row. With that win, Ohio (BRZ) brought his record at one mile on turf to seven for 20, including when victorious in the Frank E. Kilroe Mile at Santa Anita in March, 2019, with a career best 119 figure. In the fall of that year, Ohio (BRZ) finished second in the Berkeley Handicap at Golden Gate. His win in the Fitzsimmons Stakes came in his second start back following 10 months off so like Keeper Ofthe Stars, Ohio (BRZ) can be expected to improve off the 104 figure earned last time out and could give Keeper Ofthe Stars all she can handle in the stretch run.
Restrainedvengence is certainly no slouch, having earned more than any other horse in the field. His best effort may have been when beaten a head in the City of Hope Mile at Santa Anita in the fall of 2019 where he earned a 113 figure, but he also ran just as well when capturing the All American Stakes last May at Golden Gate with a 112 figure. Like the other two top contenders, Restrainedvengence is likely to improve, having returned from five months off in March when sixth then running a much better race last month when second in the Santana Mile Stakes. Although he finished fourth in last year’s San Francisco Mile, Restrainedvengence won his only other start on the Golden Gate turf course and must be respected as a contender to win in this year’s race.
Win: Bet Two of the Three contenders among Keeper Ofthe Stars, Ohio and Restrainedvengence to win at odds of 2 to 1 or more, with preference to the pair at the highest odds near post time. With a bad favorite in the race in Whisper Not, we have a lot of value in making this bet.
This is another race where a DUTCHING tool does us a lot of good and helps us to make a profit. Both horses open at 6/1 and at that level we would be evenly but it is unlikely both will be the same odds near post time so a Dutching tool saves us doing the math to determine the right wagering amounts.
Exacta: Box Keeper Ofthe Stars, Ohio and Restrainedvengence
Race 9: Keeper Ofthe Stars, Ohio and Restrainedvengence
Race 10: Styledome, Miss Peaky Blinder