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Saturday Keeneland Race 9 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes

 keeneland

Keeneland’s race of the day Saturday is the Grade 2 Dixiana Elkhorn Stakes going the marathon distance of a mile and half over the turf. The race is named after a central Kentucky stream that is 18.3 miles long and runs through several counties with its two primary forks taking the shape of antlers. The race was first run at 1 1/8th miles in 1986 and then lengthened to today’s distance in 1996. Notable winners include Manila (1987), Lure (1994), and Musketier (2010 & 2011). This year’s edition features a competitive, full field of eleven older horses although Mike Maker, who has a superfecta of runners, has already stated he may scratch Taghleeb (4-1) and Roman Approval (20-1).  The forecast for Lexington on Saturday shows several rounds of rain which means the turf might be rated “good” or “yielding.” I have handicapped the race under the assumption that the turf will be “good/yielding” and Maker scratches the previous mentioned horses.

 

The horse I will key on is Maker’s Bigger Picture who is the tepid morning line favorite at 7-2. While I would prefer a better price, he is in my opinion the most likely winner and the horse I will key and wheel in my vertical wagers. The Badge of Silver gelding was off-the-board in his last start in the G2 Mac Diarmida but was only beaten by half a length. Bigger Picture won four of eight races last year, but more importantly can handle rain soaked turf as he finished a strong second in the Sycamore Stakes on a course rated “good.”  He has a versatile running style and can press or stalk the pace. Note the sharp workout on April 15th and his regular rider, Jose Ortiz, is in the irons.

 

Makers’ other runner, Charming Kitten (6-1), is worth a look and can be used on your tickets. The son of Kitten’s Joy has failed to pick up a check in his two starts this year but has only been beaten 1 ¾ and 1 ½ lengths in those starts. Prior to two starts in Ireland in the summer of 2016, he won the two-mile H. Allen Jerkins Stakes on a Gulfstream turf course rated “good.” Maker has had success in this race winning it with Dark Cove in 2013 and Da Big Hoss last year.

 

Itsinthepost (4-1) is a player in this race. The five-year-old French-bred, by American Post, is shipped in from California for trainer Jeff Mullins. Itsinthepost’s form has been razor sharp as he has finished in the exacta in eight of his last nine races. He became a grade 2 winner in his last start when he won the San Luis Rey Stakes at Santa Anita. The soft ground should not hamper his cause as he is proven on turf rated “good” or “soft.” Tyler Baze gives up his mounts at Santa Anita to make the trip which adds to the appeal. Mullins rarely ships his horses East so you have to wonder if he can bring his California form to the Bluegrass State. If he does, Itsinthepost will be right there at the wire.

 

A live longshot in the race is Interpol (12-1) for trainer Jimmy Toner. Interpol, by English Channel, came into Jimmy’s barn in late December after being sidelined for over a year. His 2015 form was solid and I was able to cash some nice tickets on him when he won the Grade 2 Sky Classic and Grade 1 Northern Dancer at Woodbine. He too is proven on giving ground and the marathon distance is well within his scope. Toss his 2017 debut as it was simply a prep race at a distance that was less than ideal. If Toner has the screws tightened and Interpol can run back to his 2015 form, then he is a contender in this race at what should be a great price. Throw Bullard Alley (20-1) in underneath on your vertical wagers as his best races have come on “good/yielding” turf.

 

Wishing safe trips to all and hopefully despite the rains we won’t see any floaties.

Published in Papo's Post

Friday Keeneland Race 9 Maker’s 46 Mile

keenelandThe highlight race on Friday’s Keeneland card is the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile. Unlike the bourbon Maker’s 46, which has a smooth taste with hints of both vanilla and caramel, the race came up quite salty with a highly competitive field of 12. The race could be billed as an East vs. West Coast contest as we have four shippers from California, including What a View (5-1), Bolo (5-1), Conquest Enforcer (12-1), and Calculator (10-1), taking on the East Coast challengers, including the morning line favorite Heart to Heart (3-1). The six-year-old son of English Channel has had a stellar career, winning 12 of his 27 lifetime starts with earnings exceeding $1 million. There is no secret to his success as he likes to set the pace and run his competition into the ground. He is 6 of 13 at the one mile distance and is ideally drawn in post nine, outside of the other speed in the race.

The pace dynamics of the race will make things interesting for Heart to Heart. What a View, for trainer Kenny Black, has the same style of running and is capable of being head to head with Heart to Heart through the early parts of the race. How that battle plays out on the front end will determine the outcome of the race. To add more fuel to the early heat, you have Conquest Enforcer, who likes to press the pace and gets jockey Paco Lopez in the saddle. Lopez is an aggressive gate rider and I would expect him to have Conquest Enforcer involved in the race early. With all the early pace in this race I will be looking for a horse coming off of it for the most likely winner.

Bolo for trainer Carla Gaines is a contender in the race. He wants firm turf so if the skies decide to weep Friday you can discount his chances. That being said, the forecast calls for a clear, sunny day and that’s how I’m handicapping the race. Bolo made his 2017 debut winning the Grade 2 Arcadia after sidelined for eight months. He may have regressed a bit off that effort when he finished third in his next start in the Grade 1 Frank Kilroe Mile, however. While there is some cause of concern that he has failed to produce a top effort when shipping, I love his works coming in and this will be the first time he has strung three races together without time off since 2015. You get Mr. Grade 1 himself, Mike Smith, in the saddle and I expect him to place Bolo right behind the early speed. While I doubt the morning line price will hold up you might get 3-1 on Bolo and he should be right there at the wire.

Calculator and Inspector Lynley (8-1) are interesting in this race. While I can’t see either taking the winner’s share, they are logical for exactas and trifectas. Calculator is son of In Summation who has spent most of his career racing on the dirt. He had a successful 2016 with five in-the-money finishes in six starts. His best races were when he finished second in both the Grade 1 Carter and Grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes. He too should sit a stalking position and I find it interesting Peter Miller runs him in this grade 1 affair off only two turf starts. The Frenchman, Florent Geroux, takes the reins which adds to the appeal. Calculator will have to transfer his best dirt form over to the grass to have a chance in this race but I can see him getting a share. Inspector Lynley is an interesting horse to use underneath on your tickets. He is a two-time grade 3 winner and won the Tampa Bay Stakes in his last start. While has only one start in 2017, Shug McGaughey enters him here after three bullet works at Payson Park. The mile distance may be a bit too sharp for him as he is by Lemon Drop Kid and would likely appreciate a little more ground to work with. He should be running late and could pick up a minor share.

As for my key horse I am going to take a shot with Bondurant (10-1) for trainer Ian Wilkes. The lightly raced son of War Front just missed last time out finishing second to Heart to Heart in the Grade 3 Canadian Turf at Gulfstream Park. He is 2 for 2 at Keeneland, 3 of 4 at the one mile distance, and this will be his third start off the layoff. Should the pace setters go too fast early, look for Bondurant to be flying at the end. While he has never tasted grade 1 company, if he can improve just a bit off his last race, he can pull off the upset. He is a half-brother and stable-mate to the Derby contender, McCraken, who finished third in his final prep last week. While Ian did not get his picture taken last week in the winner’s circle, he may have just been waiting for the Maker’s 46 to flow on Friday.

Safe trips to all.

Published in Papo's Post
Tuesday, 11 April 2017 16:27

Thoroughbred action returns to Woodbine

From Woodbine Entertainment

woodbine logoCatch all the Thoroughbred action starting on April 15th at 1.00 PM as racing returns to Woodbine Racetrack for the season.

*Woodbine will guarantee the Early Pick 4 at $100,000 on Saturday’s/ Sunday’s and $50,000 on Fridays, and will also be offering 20-cent bet minimums on all Triactor, Superfecta, Pick 3 & Pick 4 pools. For horseplayer’s seeking more Pick 4 excitement, when Wednesday’s return to the lineup on May 17th , Woodbine will guarantee the Early Pick 4 at $100,000, one of the biggest guarantees in the industry that night!

*That’s not all, try your luck with the Thoroughbred Pick 5 now guaranteed at $30,000 from Friday’s to Sunday’s and $50,000 on Wednesday nights, and why not give the Jackpot Hi5 a go? Huge potential for big pool payouts! Check for the latest carryover or mandatory announcement.

*The highlight of the meet is the 158th running of The Queen's Plate - the first jewel in Canada’s Triple Crown of Thoroughbred Racing, and the longest continuously run stakes race in North America scheduled for July 2nd.

*In addition to the $1 million dollar Plate in July, Woodbine will host 133 race days until December 10th.

*This season Woodbine will also host over 200 races contested on the world-renowned E.P. Taylor Turf Course, boasting a distance of 1 ½ miles, and a big sweeping turn with a distance of 1,440 feet to the finish.

*Everything starts on April 15th at the standard 1.00 PM EDT post time. Join Woodbine in 2017 and take part in:

-Quality and consistent racing with great fields and purses;
-Expanded wagers and bigger guaranteed Pick 4 and 5 pools;
-Free handicapping materials made available throughout the meet;
-Great stories to follow throughout the year;
-An Extended racing season from April-December;
-An award winning HD broadcast with experience from trusted personalities.

*For more information visit WoodbineRacetrack.com.

*Follow @WoodbineRacing on Twitter and use the official hashtag: #BetWoodbine.

Friday, 24 March 2017 16:43

G3 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park

 
turfway park logoFirst run in 1972, the Spiral Stakes has been the spring fixture for Turfway Park, located in Florence Kentucky. First run at the one mile distance, the race was elongated to a mile and an eighth in 1988 and has been run at that distance since. Notable winners of the Spiral include Broad Brush (1986), Summer Squall (1990), Hansel (1991), Lil E. Tee (1992), Hardspun - a personal favorite (2007), and Animal Kingdom (2011) who was the last Spiral Winner to go on to capture the Run for the Roses. While Animal Kingdom was able to translate his polytrack form over to the dirt, Spiral winners tend to be horses more geared to the turf and less so to classic dirt tracks. The race, however, does offer 85 qualifying points for the Derby, with 50 points going to the winner in case those getting their picture made in the winner’s circle catch Derby fever. 
 
This year the Spiral has a full field of 12 three-year-olds looking to pick up the winner’s share of the $500k purse. Morning line favoritism lands on Kitten’s Point (4-1) for trainer Joe Sharp. The son of Kitten’s Joy has been a stellar turf performer winning three of his seven turf starts. In his last race, he ran a good second in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He should be sitting a pressing or stalking trip behind the early speed of Fast and Accurate (15-1) and En Hanse (15-1). He is a deserving favorite and a must use for your multi-race bets. However, I believe his odds will float down from the morning line and there are others in this race that entice more.
 
There are four other entries in this race that offer a bit more value and have an opportunity to cross the wire first. Soglio (6-1) ships in from Santa Anita for trainer Graham Motion. The Scat Daddy colt has hit the board in five of his six career starts. He broke his maiden at Del Mar in December overcoming the far outside post while beating a field of 12.  In his last two races, he finished third and second respectively and was closing in at the wire to only run out of real estate. He gets more ground to work with today stretching out to a mile and an eighth, a distance that suits his pedigree being out of the Seattle Slew mare, Sea of Showers. Motion flies in Trevor McCarthy to take the reins.
 
Giant Payday (8-1), a son of Giant’s Causeway is interesting in this race. The Ian Wilkes trainee may get a bit lost on the tote board in this highly competitive race. Giant Payday finished off-the-board in the Palm Beach Stakes but was swung four wide coming off the final turn and was closing down the stretch. If you watch the gallop out after that race he stretched out nicely, indicating he may have needed more ground to work with. His best races have come on turf yet he did not disgrace himself in his two dirt tries finishing second in both. This will be his third start off the layoff and I expect him to improve in this race.
 
Parlor (5-1) is a lightly raced Lonhro colt with only three career starts.  He came off a five-month layoff in February to win going away, while under wraps, in an allowance race at Tampa. He broke his maiden at Ellis Park beating the morning line favorite in this race. He could easily be undefeated as he just came up a neck short in his second career race at Kentucky Downs. The sky is the limit for Parlor and he looks extremely live in this race. 
 
The last horse of mention and the one I may end up keying in my vertical wagers is King and His Court (5-1) for trainer Mark Casse. By Court Vision, the three-year-old gelding sold for a bargain price of $2,500 (yes read that again) yet has earned nearly a quarter of a million dollars. Toss his last race at Tampa where he obviously hated the dirt track and you have a horse that loves synthetic surfaces, winning three of seven on this surface and finishing in the money in six of those starts. He is the only horse in the race to already win at today’s race distance which adds to the appeal. The price will be right and in a race where you have to guess which horses are going to like the synthetic surface, I’ll go with the one who is already proven on it.
 
A great betting race and plenty of value to be had in the pinnacle race of the Turfway Park meet.
 
Published in Papo's Post
Friday, 24 March 2017 16:24

Meydan Overview for 2017 Dubai World Cup

250X250The haters will always hate but even the professional whingers will surely struggle to criticise the quality on show in Dubai on Saturday evening.

Sand racing may not be for everyone, and it is arguable the dirt track at Meydan has proven to be even more one-dimensional than ever this season, but the best horse in the world, Arrogate, will be stepping on it at 12.45pm (ET) and for the credibility of the meeting, that was vital. Listening to Bob Baffert, you do get the feeling it was not exactly at the top of his wish list, and previous quotes such as “we bought the horse to race in America” back that up, but they are here with seemingly everything running smoothly, and it is hardly stating the obvious that he will be very difficult to beat. There is no point trying to oppose him, and I cannot even come up with anything worthwhile for place purposes, so on we go.

UK racing is still very much in jump mode, but such as Aidan O’Brien, John Gosden, Roger Charlton, Henry Candy and many more will be using Dubai as a springboard to their spring/summer campaigns. O’Brien sends over his biggest team of runners, nine to be exact. His son, Donnacha, describes the raid as being reflective of the strong team of older horses at their disposal this year.

As with any big meeting, rumours can spread like wildfire and a possible injury to Ertijaal seems the biggest non-story. Well, we assume and hope it was a non-story. The favourite for the Al Quoz has proven nigh-on unbeatable down the straight track, albeit over 5f, and the only question mark that hangs over him is his ability to be as effective over 6f. He was before but is undoubtedly quicker now. I think he will be. He fits the brief of many of the favourites on the card: solid but at a price that isn’t going to pay for the wife’s birthday, but perhaps one of the more vulnerable market leaders is Vazirabad in the Dubai Gold Cup.

He won the race last year, but a shallower version, and many in the field are closely matched through various pieces of form. He was also beaten in the trial and looking through his record, he has hitherto largely bypassed all the main staying contests, the Group Ones in France not comparing to those in England in my opinion. 

So with many of these on a par, where does the extra edge lie? Tactics are the obvious starting point and for that reason I am siding with Big Orange, who ran second to Vazirabad 12 months ago. He seems the only sure to go from the front with Frankie Dettori (his sole ride on the card) a master at the waiting ride in front. He was softened up a touch last year by Certerach, which left him vulnerable come the finish but hopefully that will not happen again and he looks the value.

On to the UAE Derby and Thunder Snow will need to be a very, very good horse to win from stall 13. We already know he is a very good horse but there is enough against him to suggest he won’t achieve that extra very here. The dirt didn’t seem too much of an issue when he won the UAE 2000 Guineas on his reappearance, but that was a nine-runner race and this will be a different kettle of fish. Bee Jersey has the best part of six lengths to find with him, and indeed he has a similar distance to find with Fawree, but I am quite happy to believe he can. Firstly, Bee Jersey has only had three starts and can/will still improve, while he made a big move at halfway in that Guineas and it left him empty for the finish. He was also drawn in stall nine of nine on that occasion and is in seven now, so at the very least should bridge the gap.

Zarak looks banker material in the Dubai Turf such was the impression he made when landing the Dubai Millennium Stakes during the Carnival. He was still someway short of fitness that day, both in appearance and at the suggestion of his trainer, yet he won on the bridle beating Earnshaw by a length and three quarters, that horse getting to within a length and a half of Decorated Knight in the Jebel Hatta. His form behind Almanzor last season is top drawer stuff and he very much strikes as a horse that is about to come of age.

One more selection and that is Jack Hobbs in the Dubai Sheema Classic who, in a similar vein, has form behind Almanzor and strikes as the type to fulfil all his potential as a five-year-old. No horse has impressed more in appearance than Jack Hobbs, very much confirming the opinion of John Ferguson when he bought the horse, that he would be one that blossomed with time under his belt. That time was rather enforced following injury, but it should prove to be a blessing in disguise and this long-striding sort should be well suited by the Meydan track.

Stephen Molyneux's Dubai World Cup bet selections: 

8:50am (ET) Meydan: Big Orange

9.25am (ET) Meydan: Bee Jersey

11:30am (ET) Meydan: Zarak

12:05pm (ET) Meydan: Jack Hobbs

 

 

Thursday, 09 March 2017 15:51

Big 'Cap Preview

big cap

From Santa Anita

ARCADIA, Calif. (March 8, 2017)–Jimmy Jerkens’ Shaman Ghost and Phil D’Amato’s Midnight Storm head a competitive field of nine older horses in Saturday’s Grade I, $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap at a mile and a quarter. America’s longest continually run “hundred grander,” the Big ‘Cap, which was first staged in 1935, will be run for the 80th time at The Great Race Place.

A solid second to the mighty Arrogate in the $12 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Jan. 28 at Gulfstream Park, Shaman Ghost will be stretching out a furlong for Jerkens, while Midnight Storm, a winner of five out of his last six starts, including his last two, will try to stretch his speed out off a front-running tally here in the Grade II, 1 1/16 miles San Pasqual Stakes on Jan. 1.

SHAMAN GHOST: Based with Jerkens in south Florida, this 5-year-old son of Ghostzapper could rate top billing as he exits what appears to be the best race of his career in the Pegasus, a race in which he was beaten 4 ¾ lengths. A winner of the prestigious Grade I Woodward Stakes three starts back on Sept. 3 at Saratoga, he earned a career-top Beyer Speed figure of 112 in the Pegasus and will hope to be in high gear under four-time Eclipse Champion Jockey Javier Castellano on Saturday. Owned by Stronach Stables and bred in Ontario, Canada by their Adena Springs, Shaman Ghost showed good early foot in the Pegasus, easily outrunning California Chrome to the first turn. With a win and a second from three tries at a mile and a quarter, Shaman Ghost’s connections will hope Midnight Storm gets plenty of early pressure on the front end. Coincidentally, Castellano, who will be riding in his first Big ‘Cap, burst upon the national scene by guiding Ghostzapper to victory in the 2004 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Jerkens, in his first Big ‘Cap attempt a year ago, was third with Effinex. Stronach Stables will be looking for their third Big ‘Cap score, as their homebred Milwaukee Brew won the race in 2002 & 2003. Shaman Ghost is 14-6-2-2 overall with earnings of $3,089,311 ($1,750,000 of which was derived from his second place finish in the Pegasus).

MIDNIGHT STORM: Thought to be most effective on turf, D’Amato shifted gears following his third place finish three starts back in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Mile (turf) here on Nov. 5 and tried him in the Grade III Native Diver Stakes, run at 1 1/8 miles over a “good” main track at Del Mar on Nov. 27. The result was a dominating gate to wire win by 7 ¾ lengths, which led D’Amato to begin plotting a course to the Santa Anita Handicap. A 1 ¼ length winner on a wet fast surface in the San Pasqual Jan. 1, there’s no mystery as to how the 6-year-old full horse by Pioneerof the Nile will approach the Big ‘Cap, as it’s fully expected he’ll be sent to the lead straight out of the gate. Owned by A Venneri Racing, Inc. and Little Red Feather Racing, Midnight Storm was off the board in his only career try at the Big ‘Cap distance. With earnings of $1,461,110, he has an overall record of 21-10-3-1.

IMPERATIVE: A 7-year-old Bernardini gelding, he comes off one of his best-ever performances, a head victory in the 1 1/8 miles Poseidon Stakes at Gulfstream on Jan. 28, which was also his first start for trainer Bob Hess, Jr. He’s another that would benefit from a fast pace as he tries to break an 0-9 slide at a mile and a quarter. Owned by Loooch Racing Stables and Imaginary Stables, he’s a sharp horse whose connection are out to prove his last race was no fluke. With one win from 14 lifetime starts at Santa Anita, Imperative is 36-5-8-3 overall with earnings of $2,240,790.

FOLLOW ME CREV: Always highly regarded by trainer Vladimir Cerin, he rallied boldly from off the pace to take a 1 1/16 miles classified allowance here on Feb. 20–overcoming a seven month respite. Owned by David and Holly Wilson, this 5-year-old Quality Road gelding was forced to miss last year’s Big ‘Cap due to a minor injury and will hope to be rolling late in his first attempt at a mile and a quarter.

THE GRADE I SANTA ANITA HANDICAP WITH JOCKEYS & WEIGHTS IN POST POSITION ORDER

Race 10 of 11 Approximate post time 4:30 p.m. PT

  • Midnight Storm–Rafael Bejarano–122
  • Gangster–Mario Gutierrez–115
  • Shaman Ghost–Javier Castellano–122
  • Isotherm–Flavien Prat–119
  • Hard Aces–Victor Espinoza–119
  • Follow Me Crev–Kent Desormeaux–116
  • Twentytwentyvision–Mike Smith–116
  • Hi Happy–Altair Domingos–116
  • Imperative–Antonio Gallardo–119

Pick 6 King

A long time student of the game & professional handicapper, Past the Wire's Jon Stettin is the winner of over $2 million in Pick 6s, with the biggest a $540K score  at the Spa. He makes his daily picks for AmWager. 

Friday, April 14
 
Keeneland
Race 7 (Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes) #3 Watershed, delivers on promise today with big race