Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 10th, 2025
Take the A Train Stakes - Race 9 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) - Post Time 5:46 PM Eastern
Top win contenders: Lovely Emma, Hey Bertie, Disco Star
For exactas: Annascaul, Love Cervere
Lovely Emma is the one to catch in this race, particularly with the rail out 24 feet on the turf course, which benefits horses on the lead mostly because it disadvantages closers slightly. She has led from the start and in the stretch in all four races, all turf sprints, winning one and losing two of the other three by a neck and by a half-length. When last seen, in December, Lovely Emma earned a stellar 102 Equibase Speed Figure which is not only the best, fastest, in the field, but one which she should improve upon in her first start as a three-year-old and first after nearly five months off. Red hot Flavien Prat rides and all signs are GO for a wire-to-wire win.
If Lovely Emma can’t go all the way in front, then either Hey Bertie or Disco Star can get up in time. Hey Bertie won both her starts to date, the most recent her only start on grass where she flew home the final quarter mile from ninth of 11 to win. She gets Castellano for the strong DeVaux barn and could pass them all in this race, particularly if the early pace is contested. Disco Star moved up quickly from sixth at the quarter pole to lead in the stretch four weeks ago in a stakes race on dirt then was beaten a half-length and nose for the win at the end. Two before that on turf she rallied from ninth to win by nearly five lengths so is another who could be rallying fast in the late stages.
Annascaul gets Irad Ortiz, Jr. riding for Clement and comes back from six months off, having won a turf sprint in her career debut last summer at Saratoga and finishing second, beaten a half-length, in a stakes race on the course when last seen in November. Cervere is the other Clement entrant and she too won a turf sprint in her debut, over the course, in November, before finishing second at a mile in a stakes at Gulfstream, before a poorer fifth of 10 finish in a two-turn stakes in Florida as well with no excuse. The cut back to a sprint helps move her up.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Lovely Emma at odds of 9 to 5 or higher.
Hey Bertie at 2 to 1 odds or higher.
Disco Star at 3 to 1 odds or higher
When presented with the opportunity to wager on more than one horse to win, we can gain the best mathematical edge possible by using a “Dutching” tool to prorate our wagers. There is a free Dutching tool at Amwager where all we have to do is select the total we want to wager and then select two horses and all the work is done for us. That’s one of many great tools and perks at Amwager.
Exactas:
Lovely Emma, Hey Bertie, Disco Star over Lovely Emma, Hey Bertie, Disco Star, Annascaul, Love Cervere
Lovely Emma, Hey Bertie, Disco Star, Annascaul, Love Cervere over Lovely Emma, Hey Bertie, Disco Star
Double and Pick 3:
Race 9: Lovely Emma, Hey Bertie, Disco Star
Race10: Catherine Wheel, Sterling Silver, My Mane Squeeze
Race 11: Lordship, Captain Cook, First Pitch
Ruffian Stakes - Race 10 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) - Post Time 6:16 PM Eastern
Win contenders: Sterling Silver, My Mane Squeeze, Catherine Wheel
For exactas; Takethemoneyhoney, Jody’s Pride, Gun Song
Sterling Silver is a six-year-old mare with a pretty solid record of nine wins in 29 races, for earnings of $1 million. Better still, her record over the main track at Aqueduct is 5-3-3 in 12 races and the only time she finished worse than third was in March of 2022, more than three years ago. In the fall of 2023, Sterling Silver won the Gallant Bloom Stakes over the track (but was disqualified and placed second) before winning the Iroquois Stakes at Aqueduct with a then career-best 102 Equibase Speed Figure, which she bettered to 103 in March of last year. Sterling Silver also won the Johnstone Mile Handicap at Saratoga last summer. Returning from three months off in early April, Sterling Silver won the Biogio’s Rose Stakes at the same distance as the Ruffian, earning a 101 figure. Sterling Silver is very likely to improve upon that figure in her second start of the year, particularly with Javier Castellano in the saddle, who has been aboard for three of her last four victories.
My Mane Squeeze was entered to run last Saturday in the $1 million Derby City Distaff at Churchill Downs, but trainer Mike Maker decided to ship her to New York from his Kentucky base not only because this is a Grade 2 race and easier spot, but also because she has won three of four races at Aqueduct. Last year, the filly’s best efforts came when winning the Eight Belles Stakes in May and the Dogwood Stakes in September, both at Churchill Downs, with both efforts yielding strong 102 figures. Although both those wins came at seven furlongs, My Mane Squeeze is perfect in two races at this mile distance, with both wins coming at Aqueduct, in the Maid of the Mist Stakes in the fall of 2023 and in the Maddie May Stakes in February 2024. Returning from five and one-half months off last month in the Madison Stakes, My Mane Squeeze was not disgraced when third behind Positano Sunset and Emery, who just finished sixth and fifth, respectively, behind top sprinter Kopion in last weekend’s Grade 1 Derby City Distaff Stakes. With Manny Franco riding back after the third-place effort last month and returning to Aqueduct and the one-turn mile distance at which she has never lost, My Mane Squeeze is also a strong contender to win.
Catherine Wheel has never finished lower than third in seven races, and like the two horses above she really likes running at Aqueduct. She has won two of three races over the track, but more importantly both races were at this distance of one mile. After winning by a nose one race before last in March while earning a career-best 100 figure, Catherine Wheel shipped down to Laurel while stepping into stakes company for the first time, getting to second and within a half-length of the winner in the stretch before settling for third. That was her first ever try on a muddy track, and so with a fast track likely for the Ruffian, as well as returning to the one-turn mile for this race, Catherine Wheel appears to have a solid chance to be right there at the wire with My Mane Squeeze and Sterling Silver.
Honorable mention goes to three horses, Gun Song, Jody’s Pride and Takethemoneyhoney, all three of which have a chance to earn a piece of the purse by finishing third, perhaps second, but in my estimation have much less probability of winning than any of the three horses above. Gun Song had a very nice three-year-old campaign, with a career-best 102 figure when second to Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes in September. However, in three of her last four races of 2024, all graded stakes, Gun Song lost ground after leading in the stretch to end up second each time, leading to an overall record of three wins and four seconds in nine starts for the year. Jody’s Pride won the Busher Invitational Stakes last March at this one turn mile trip at Aqueduct in a race restricted to three-year-olds. She led late and missed by a neck in the Inside Information Stakes in January at Gulfstream Park to start her four-year-old season, earning a career-best 103 figure, but then ran poorly when last of five in the Azeri Stakes when last seen on March 8. Takethemoneyhoney has potential to play “come catch me” with the field by virtue of drawing the rail and having a lot of early speed. She’s three for four in her career with her best effort coming at this one turn mile trip at Aqueduct in March, with a 100 figure, but she’s moving up in class considerably from a second level allowance race to this Grade 2 stakes.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Sterling Silver at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
My Mane Squeeze at odds of 5 to 2 or more.
Catherine Wheel at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
If the odds are high enough that two of the three are above the minimum, this is another good race to use the “Dutching Tool” at Amwager to get the best mathematical edge possible.
Exacta: Sterling Silver, My Mane Squeeze over Sterling Silver, My Mane Squeeze, Catherine Wheel, Takethemoneyhoney, Jody’s Pride, Gun Song
Double:
Race10: Catherine Wheel, Sterling Silver, My Mane Squeeze
Race 11: Lordship, Captain Cook, First Pitch
Peter Pan Stakes - Race 11 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) - Post Time 6:46 PM Eastern
Top Win contenders: Lordship, Captain Cook, First Pitch
Lordship is one of two trained by Chad Brown (the other Hill Road), who won this race in 2017 and 2020. These are three year olds who either weren’t good enough for Derby consideration or got a late start to their careers. Lordship is the perfect example, as he made his career debut on March 22, at Tampa Bay Downs, two weeks after the Tampa Bay Derby was run and two weeks before the Wood Memorial was run at Aqueduct. He won that race like a horse which had run many times previously, going five paths wide into the stretch after moving up from fifth to second, then winning nicely. He won in spite of hopping in the air at the start, and the win came around two turns, pretty tough for a first time starter. He can run all day as a son of Gun Runner and he’s a half-brother to dirt route stakes winner Hall of Fame ($490K) so the sky’s the limit. Davis rides and wins one-third of the time for Brown over the past year and four months, AND it’s not problem for a last out maiden winner to take the Peter Pan because that’s just what Arcangelo did in 2023 before winning the Belmont Stakes four weeks later.
Captain Cook is the fastest horse in the field, having earned a 101 Equibase Speed Figure when fourth of 10 in the Wood Memorial last month. He chased lone front runner Rodriguez from the start then got tired as would be expected, but he won the Withers at this trip from off the pace prior to that with a more than decent 95 figure, and Manny Franco rode him to victory in the Withers as well as to his maiden win prior to that. He had been off for two months before the Wood as well so he has a lot of improving he can do here and is a strong contender.
First Pitch may be the longest shot in the field, coming off a maiden win against NY breds last out on March 23. However, that win was accomplished at this nine furlong trip at Aqueduct, when adding blinkers for a route for the first time, and it was accomplished leading from start to finish. He may find himself on the lead again and get brave, and there’s no knock that Lezcano gets on for the first time. Recalling Arcangelo winning this race two years ago off a maiden win, and the fact this colt will be high odds, he is definitely worth a win/place/show bet in this situation.
Handicapper Picks
Win:
Lordship at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
Captain Cook at odds of 2 to 1 or more.
First Pitch at odds of 10 to 1 or more.
If the odds are high enough that two of the three are above the minimum, and that should be the case as First Pitch is expected to go to post at very high odds, this is another good race to use the “Dutching Tool” at Amwager to get the best mathematical edge possible.
Exacta:
Box Lordship, Captain Cook, First Pitch
Box Lordship, Captain Cook
Lordship, Captain Cook over ALL
Optional $1 exacta Box First Pitch with ALL (because he will be a long shot)