The Inaugural Stakes is exactly what its name suggests — the traditional opening punch of the Tampa Bay Downs stakes calendar. First run in 1982, the race has long served as the early-season measuring stick for sharp two-year-olds on the rise. Plenty of classy runners have launched their careers here before stretching out into Derby preps or Florida stakes campaigns. It’s a race that often looks wide open on paper and usually runs even wider, producing prices, breakout performances, and the occasional future star. Fittingly, as Tampa celebrates 100 years, the Inaugural once again feels like a race ready to reveal something.

And this year’s edition? Competitive, evenly matched, and tailor-made for a horseplayer willing to read between the lines instead of just the morning line.

This is how and who I view as the primary players:

Thunder Chuck – Second Off a Layoff, Forward Move Incoming

Thunder Chuck returns for his second start off the layoff, and that alone makes him interesting — but when you add Saratoga experience and prior stakes seasoning, he becomes more than interesting. He becomes logical. Horses with Spa foundation don’t usually shrink when the real running starts at Tampa, especially when they’re sitting on that second-off wake-up move. He should go forward and get the right kind of trip to launch from.

Super Kick – The Kentucky Invader I Can’t Ignore

Shipping in from Kentucky typically means one of two things:
(1) They think they can win, or
(2) They want to find out where they really stand.

Either way, Super Kick deserves a long look. He’s faced enough quality to be taken seriously, he has the profile of a colt who improves when he gets into a rhythm, and this race traditionally rewards those who can carry speed with stamina. He fits that mold cleanly.

Solitude Dude – The Gulfstream Freak Factor

Some debuts look like flashes in the pan.
Some look like this colt.

Solitude Dude ran a huge debut at Gulfstream, and nothing about that performance smelled fluky. His stride, his finish, the authority—this is a horse who could be this good or better. Tampa’s surface can humble flashy Gulfstream types, but it can also showcase those who have the true goods. He is absolutely one of the main win threats. Likely will be over-bet but a win is a win if you believe that debut.

Go Simple – The Sleeper I Won’t Sleep On

And now we get to the one who might blow this thing up.

Go Simple has never raced on dirt, never seen Tampa, and will likely be dismissed by anyone who doesn’t dig deeper. That’s usually where prices live.

He comes in from Timothy Hamm, a barn that flies under the radar nationally but is sharp, dangerous, and absolutely capable of ambushing a stake like this. Hamm spots his horses to win, not to fill the entry box.

Here’s what makes Go Simple compelling:

• All synthetic so far, which adds bottom, fitness, and a different kind of foundation.
• By Knicks Go, one of the most underrated emerging stallions in the country — a Breeders’ Cup Mile and Classic winner who passes along speed, toughness, and versatility.
• The breeding says dirt is well within reach — maybe even preferred.
• His running style hints he’ll enjoy the Tampa main track, which rewards horses who can settle then punch.
• Synthetic-to-dirt moves often bring major improvement, especially when paired with a ship-in trainer who knows exactly why he’s here.

If the public lets this colt go, and they probably will, he’s the big price worth taking seriously. In a race with several obvious players, he is the one who could change the tenor of the afternoon.

Final Thoughts

The Inaugural Stakes rarely disappoints, and in Tampa Bay Downs’ 100th season, it feels appropriate that we get a field with proven class, upside, and at least one sleeper who could knock your socks off. Thunder Chuck, Super Kick, and Solitude Dude all make sense on paper — but races like this don’t stay on paper.

Go Simple is the one who might just make this year’s Inaugural live up to its name with a true breakthrough performance.

If you’re hunting value on opening stakes day of a milestone meet, you won’t have to look far. Just look where everyone else isn’t. You’ll see me there this go round.

At Aqueduct they have the Cigar Mile. I would be lying if I didn’t say it came up pretty light on both quality and quantity. What can you do. I lean to Bishops Bay who I believe still has improvement in him and could be sitting on his best race to date which he will need to beat that tough knocker to his inside. The help is 0% takeout which you can get right here at AmWager on Cigar Mile Day. Why would you possibly bet it anywhere else?