Suwannee River Stakes – Race 9 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:18 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Movin’ On Up, Aussie Girl, Crevalle d’Oro
Movin’ On Up won a similar non-graded race, the Sand Springs Stakes, in March at Gulfstream. She finished third in her next three races from May through July. Her most recent race was in August, where she finished next to last in a 10-horse field. Movin’ On Up won two races in March after a layoff, with jockey Zayas riding, including the Sand Springs Stakes, and he has not ridden her since. Zayas getting back on gives her a chance to return to her best races.
Aussie Girl won the Noble Damsel Stakes in October after an eight-month layoff, earning her career-best 103 Equibase Speed Figure, close to the 105 figure of Movin’ On Up when winning the Sand Springs. Gaffalione rides her for the first time. Gaffalione and trainer Walden have combined to win five of 12 races over the past two years.
Crevalle d’Oro has improved her pattern from a 90 figure to a career-best 105 in her last race. In the tougher Grade 3 Goldikova Stakes on November 1, she rallied to second in the stretch but faded to fourth. Her previous race was a strong classified allowance win at Kentucky Downs, where the third and fourth place finishers in that race later won their own races. She will have higher odds than in her last four races, which have been at 10/1 or higher. If she runs faster than in her last race, she has a chance.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Movin’ On Up is considered a good bet at 5 to 2 odds or higher.
Aussie Girl and Crevalle d’Oro are considered at fair odds at 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta Box: Movin’ On Up, Aussie Girl, Crevalle d’Oro
Double and Pick 3:
Race 9: Movin’ On Up, Aussie Girl, Crevalle d’Oro
Race 10: Poster
Race 11: Divin Propos, Major Dude, Siege of Boston, Wolfie’s Dynaghost
Harlan’s Holiday Stakes – Race 10 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Poster
Poster is the horse that the other six need to beat. He won his debut in August 2024 and won two more through December, including the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes. He started on the Road to the Derby in February in the Sam F. Davis Stakes, where he finished third, then ran in the Jeff Ruby Stakes at the end of March, finishing fourth. He was off until November 9, when he won an allowance race, earning a career-best 106 Equibase Speed Figure. None of the other six have earned speed figures lower than 101 in the last three months, and Poster is likely to run even faster in his second start after the layoff.
Handicapper Picks
Win bet: Poster on at odds of 3 to 2 or higher.
Double:
Race 10: Poster
Race 11: Divin Propos, Major Dude, Siege of Boston, Wolfie’s Dynaghost
Ft. Lauderdale Stakes – Race 11 at Gulfstream Park – Post Time 5:18 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Divin Propos, Major Dude, Siege of Boston, Wolfie’s Dynaghost
Divin Propos ran at Gulfstream on November 2 in a turf handicap stakes, after a trainer change to Saffie Joseph Jr. Divin Propos was in fifth place at the eighth pole before making a move, but he was shut off at the sixteenth pole. He got clear, but it was too late, and he finished third. He has top jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who has won 30% with Joseph over the last two years, riding for the first time. I am not worried about an outside post because of his closing style. He has a strong kick and, without trouble, he could win.
Major Dude won on October 10, 2024, after winning the 2024 Ft. Lauderdale. He also won the Artie Schiller Stakes on October 11. My primary concern is that between those wins, he lost seven races. If he maintains the same pattern, he might win the Ft. Lauderdale for a second time.
Siege of Boston finished fifth in the 2024 Ft. Lauderdale, but he had no clear path in the stretch, just like Divin Propos in his last race. Siege of Boston won his last race on November 15 with a strong stretch run and will be ridden by jockey Ruiz again. Siege of Boston ran one of his best races at Gulfstream Park in the 2024 Grade 3 Canadian Stakes, where he finished second. He is a contender to win this race.
Wolfie’s Dynaghost is another favorite after winning the Grade River City Stakes on November 8. Wolfie’s Dynaghost only wins when he leads from start to finish, which has been the case for his last five wins, but he may not get an easy lead because Quatrocento is also fast early, and won two races in August and September while in the lead. In races in October and November, both graded stakes, Quatrocento finished sixth. Still, even though Quatrocento isn’t a contender in this race because, from the outside post, he will try to go to the front and has high early speed (46, 1:09). If both run to the front, Wolfie’s Dynaghost might not be the best bet to win.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Divin Propos, Major Dude, Siege of Boston at odds of 7 to 2 or higher. If two of the three are at four to one or higher, I would place bets on those two.
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Exacta Bet: Divin Propos, Major Dude, Siege of Boston, Wolfie’s Dynaghost