The Malibu Stakes, the final “big race” of the year for three-year-olds, goes Sunday at Santa Anita Park after a rain delay—and it came up loaded.

Bob Baffert sends out five of the ten runners. Half the field. That’s not an accident—it’s a reflection of the depth, quality, and firepower in that shedrow. You can love it or hate it, but it’s reality.

I’ve narrowed the race down to four:
Midland Money, Cornucopian, Speedy Wilson, and Barnes—not necessarily in that order.

Naturally, the temptation is to swing for the biggest price of the quartet, Speedy Wilson. On paper, that makes sense. In practice, I just can’t do it here. The Thorograph pattern is a Z-type, and that’s an angle I’ve talked about repeatedly on Past the Wire TV. It’s a pattern that burns money more often than it cashes tickets, and I’m not interested in being stubborn for the sake of being cute.

I’ll land on Cornucopian.

The projected trip makes sense to me. He should be able to track Modus Bestia down on the rail—who I don’t think can win—and when the real running starts, Cornucopian looks like the one who can take over and separate.

He was very good in his debut at Oaklawn earlier this year, and yes, the wheels came off in the next two starts. No sugarcoating that. But horses aren’t machines. They develop—or they don’t. Two sharp, eye-catching works coming into this race suggest that maybe, just maybe, he’s finally turned the corner and grown into what he hinted he could be early on.

Baffert is currently tied with Richard Mandella for the most Malibu wins. Odds are, he walks away with the record outright after this renewal.

The race is competitive. The pace is real. The margin for error is thin.

That’s when I trust patterns, preparation, and restraint.

I’ll take Cornucopian and let the rest fight it out behind him.