This Sunday at Oaklawn Park, the Road to the Kentucky Derby runs through Hot Springs for the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2). While the race has shifted to a rare Sunday slot for 2026, the strategy remains the same: finding the horse with the right foundation and tactical gear to handle the 1 1/16-mile test.

From my perspective, after digging into the field and our model’s latest numbers, (yes, we now have a computer model) I’m landing squarely on Litmus Test as the winner. Here is why I think he’s poised to deliver his best performance to date.

The Baffert Factor at Oaklawn

You must respect Bob Baffert whenever he ships a live contender to Oaklawn. He has won this race eight times since 2010 (most recently with Concert Tour in 2021), and he clearly views the Rebel as a premier spot to pick up those crucial 50 Derby points. Litmus Test is coming in for his three-year-old debut, and the fact that Baffert chose this spot over staying in California or heading to the Fountain of Youth speaks volumes about the horse’s readiness. He is going for the points and the purse.

Legitimate Excuses and the “Bottom”

Handicapping the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) can be tricky, but if you look at the track profile at Del Mar that weekend, there was a definitive speed bias that hindered anyone not loose on the lead. Litmus Test ran a sneaky-good fourth there, beaten only 1 3/4 lengths. While he didn’t win, he showed he could compete with the best in the country despite a track that wasn’t playing to his stalking style.

More importantly, he has the “bottom” to him. His victory in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in December was a professional, grinding performance where he stayed 1 1/16 miles strongly. He’s by Nyquist out of a Malibu Moon mare—a pedigree built for two turns and classic distances. That foundation from his five-start two-year-old campaign should serve him well as he makes his sophomore debut.

I expect Litmus Test to break clean, find a cozy spot in the second flight, and use that high cruising speed to put the field away at the top of the stretch. He has the class, the excuses are in the past, and he has the stamina foundation (“bottom”) to win this. Sunday should be his best race to date.

Now The Fountain of Youth is another story altogether. For me, this is more about who I don’t like than who I do. I don’t trust Napolean Solo despite the monster win in The Champagne. That was one turn, this is two. Where has he been? Yes, if and it is a big if to me, but should he run back to that race they are all probably running for second, but I just do not trust him to do it. I don’t like Chief Wallabee off that one start. Jackson Hole, Talkin, Commandment and Solitude all interest me but on which of those I land will be a game time decision. I wish Talkin had a better style and profile for the Gulfstream strip. That would have made it easy for me as I think he is a sneaky contender at a price. It is just tough to make up that kind of ground at this distance in Hallandale Beach.