The Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby at nine furlongs on Saturday shapes up as a legitimate two-horse race with some interesting supporting characters, and I think the public is going to get this one at least partially right — which is why I want to make sure we’re landing on the correct horse.

Let’s start with the elephant in the room. Bob Baffert runs two — Cherokee Nation and Potente — and the barn is going to dominate the wagering. When Baffert enters a pair in a race like this, the instinct is to figure out which one he wants. Based on everything I’ve seen, that horse is Potente. And based on everything I’ve watched with my own eyes, I agree with him.

Here’s what I keep coming back to with Potente. His debut was a straightforward front-running tour de force — he broke well, went to the front, and proved best with something left. Wire jobs at six furlongs by first-out maidens don’t always tell you a lot. Then he came back in the San Felipe.

And that’s where I got interested.

The San Felipe is a different animal — a mile and a sixteenth, Grade 2 company, and a field that figured to test him early. Potente was not on the engine this time. He tracked the pace from a stalking position, found himself in tight quarters around the turn, and when Hernandez finally asked him, he dug in and got there. Won going away at 8-1. That is not nothing. That is a horse who figured something out in real time.

Two races, two wins, and he’s already demonstrated two different running styles. That kind of adaptability is what separates the real ones from the horses who need everything perfect to fire. He hasn’t needed everything perfect. He’s made it work.

The distance question is fair — nine furlongs on two starts is asking for something — but his San Felipe running style actually suggests he’ll be better for it, not worse. He was finishing that race.Baffert horses who are finishing at a mile and a sixteenth tend to relish the extra ground. And with Hernandez, who has been as good as anyone at Santa Anita this meet, back aboard, I’d rather have this horse than most.

Robusta is the logical foil and deserves respect. His San Felipe may have been the race of his life — wide every step of the way, engaged two rivals on the front end, blew by both of them, and only got caught late. If he gets a ground-saving trip on Saturday and turns those fractions into something more manageable, he runs a huge race. He’s a legitimate threat. But the trip he got last time was about as costly as a trip can be, and the question is whether repeating that performance is realistic, or whether the San Felipe was his ceiling. I’m not ready to make him the winner at even money.

So Happy set the table in the San Felipe and paid for it. He’s back at a longer distance, which is going in the wrong direction for a horse with his profile. Trainer Mark Glatt does good work and the recent works suggest he’s fit and ready. Maybe he gets loose on the front end and steals this thing. Maybe. But I’m not chasing that scenario, especially being a RunHappy.

Intrepido is the one I’d use underneath if I’m playing exotics. Jeff Mullins has him ready — that six-furlong work in 1:14 and change is a serious move — and he ran a game second in the Lewis at a mile and a sixteenth, dueling into defeat against decent company. The step up to nine furlongs could be in his favor, and he’s capable of forwardly placed racing. If Potente has a bad day, this is the horse most likely to take advantage.

Cherokee Nation and Vitruvian Man round out a field that doesn’t ask you to go too deep. Cherokee Nation has a nice win on his résumé but has been inconsistent, and switching from Hernandez to Geroux while Hernandez stays on Potente tells me something about where the barn stands. Vitruvian Man is making his three-year-old debut in a Grade 1 at nine furlongs. Good luck with that.

Start the Ride got beaten up in the San Felipe and figures to be overmatched again.

The pick for me is Potente. Two for two, lightly raced, tactically versatile, best rider in the meet in the irons, and trained by the guy who has forgotten more about pointing horses for the Kentucky Derby than most of us will ever know. I think he’s Bob Baffert’s best horse this spring, and I think he proves it Saturday.

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