The Wednesday card is drawn. The Past Performances are out. We have a host of New York Bred Stakes to get things underway. Where to begin? I went with NYRA decided to call the feature, The Commentator named after the Nick Zito trained speed horse, also a New York Bred who loved Saratoga enough to win The Whitney.
Nine state-breds will head to post on a track that may still be off on Wednesday but should be dry for the big dances a week from Saturday.
I think at first and even second look Iron Dome is obvious and probably the most likely winner. He had a nice prep race, loves Saratoga, appears pointed for this spot, and projects a dream trip either setting the pace or stalking it and taking the lead when Jose says go. Either way puts him in the right spot to close the deal if he is good enough, and his past record especially here says he is. He is bred to love the wet track if it comes up that way and his two prior off-track races had legitimate excuses. This is a salty bunch however and that makes me want to dig deeper and try and get creative.
Alan Turing could be a horse worth looking at and I think he should head to post higher than the 12-1 morning line. Only 6 of his 14 lifetime starts have been on the dirt and each one looks a tad better than the last. He gets what I view as a positive rider change to Junior Alvarado, and he should be sitting right behind the speed getting the jump on the closers. Coming off Lasix and never running good enough to date to win here are certainly drawbacks but he is an improving Omaha Beach at what should be a healthy price come postime.
My strategy would be to use those two in the late Pick 5 and hope for the best.
On Thursday we are having a Belmont Stakes Seminar, covering the late Pick 5 ending with the Belmont Stakes. It includes a live interactive Q and A with an on-demand replay if you miss the live version. For those interested you can find the details HERE.
My suggestion for the weekend, lots of replays and lots of note taking.