Pegasus Stakes – Race 5 at Monmouth – Post Time 2:52 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Baby Vino, National Charter

Baby Vino has run better in his last three races, all routes, and he is ready for stakes. He earned an 81 Equibase Speed Figure when he finished third on March 1, then finished second on March 28, earning an 87 figure. He earned a 99 figure when he won his maiden on May 1, drawing off by three lengths. That is the best figure among the other six horses and he is still improving. The colt is sired by Vino Rosso whose son, Tuscan Sky, won this race in 2024. With Schoolyardsuperman, trained by Chad Brown, as the favorite, who I believe is vulnerable, Baby Vino has decent odds.

National Charter earned his first win in his second race. That was his first route, winning by three lengths, earning a 97 figure. His pattern is improving and he gets the rail where he should be second early behind Ponder Dream. National Charter is out of a dam who produced Super Steed, the winner of the Southwest Stakes in 2019, so both National Charter and Baby Vino have the highest probability of winning.

I am taking a stand against Schoolyardsuperman because his best two races were at one turn. He earned a 95 figure for his first win in December, then ran poorly in the two-turn Withers Stakes in February. In his last race, Schoolyardsuperman finished second, another one-turn mile where he led after six furlongs but was beaten by a length, earning a similar 96 figure. The winner, Hedge Ratio (also trained by Chad Brown), won his next race the Long Branch Stakes at Monmouth on May 10, but the figure regressed from 97 to 91. That tells me this horse is vulnerable.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Baby Vino and National Charter at 3 to 2 or higher.

Salvator Mile (Grade 3) – Race 9 at Monmouth – Post Time 5:01 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Point Dume, Bishops Bay, Otter Mischief

Point Dume has the best shot to beat the favorite, Bishops Bay, because Point Dume is the only other horse to have won a Grade 2 stake, aside from Bishops Bay. Point Dume won the Carter Stakes in April and earned a 102 Equibase Speed Figure (ESF), compared to Bishops Bay, who won the Cigar Stakes last December and earned a 115. Before that, Point Dume had two straight wins, including the General George Stakes, when he earned a career-best 111 ESF. Point Dume and Bishops Bay have had similar results in their last four best races, with Point Dume averaging 107 compared to 108 for Bishops Bay. Point Dume has a record of 2-3-0 in one-mile races (including a win at one mile and 70 yards), while Bishops Bay has 4-1-0 in one-mile races. In his last race, Point Dume finished 10th in the higher class in the Churchill Downs Stakes, where he raced eighth early and never showed up. I will draw a line over that race. Since Point Dume is likely to be in front early, as he was in his last five wins, when he led from start to finish, he can get his 12th career win.

Bishops Bay likes to win, with nine victories in 15 career starts, except when he finished worse than second twice, in the Forego Stakes last summer and in the Saudi Cup in February. His fourth-place finish in the Saudi Cup was behind possibly the best handicap horse in the world, Forever Young, who also won the Breeders’ Cup Classic last November. In May of 2025, Bishops Bay won the Westchester Stakes with a 111 ESF, then won the Salvator Stakes with an 110. He then won the Forty Niner last November before winning the Cigar Mile. In his second start of 2026, Bishops Bay finished second in the Westchester, where he earned a 103 ESF, which was seven points lower than his win in last year’s Salvator Mile, but in his third race of the year, he should improve and could win or finish second.

Otter Mischief finished first or second in eight of his nine recent races. His best figures were 107 and 109, and his career-best effort came in his most recent race. At just four years old, Otter Mischief has room to improve and should have high odds, given that he has run in a stakes race only once when he finished second in the City of Laurel Stakes. However, I absolutely think this horse can be part of the exacta.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Point Dume at 2 to 1 or higher.

Bishops Bay at 2 to 1 or higher.

Otter Mischief at 4 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Box Point Dume, Bishops Bay, Otter Mischief

Daytona Stakes (Grade 3) – Race 8 at Santa Anita – Post Time 7:30 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Nesso’s Lastharrah, Sumter, First Peace

Exactas in second: Anmer Hall

Nesso’s Lastharrah won his best career race in his last race when he put blinkers on. It was at the same six-furlongs and-one-sixteenth downhill turf at Santa Anita. Jockey Jaramillo has been aboard for his last two races. He earned a110 Equibase Figure Speed and is on a par with horses at lower odds, such as Sumter who won the San Simeon in March with an 115 figure, and First Peace who finished second in the 2024 Daytona with a 109 figure.

Sumter has won once and finished second twice in similar races going back to December 24. He missed by a head in the Joe Hernandez Stakes in 2024 earning a 112 figure. He finished second again in 2025, where he earned a 115 figure. He won his last race at this distance on March 14, taking the San Simeon Stakes by a nose, earning an 115 figure. In his last race on April 18 he stretched out to a mile but lacked room from the upper stretch to the mid-stretch and finished fifth. He gets the excellent outside post and should finish second or win.

First Peace ran his poorest in his last two races in August and September last year. Prior to those two efforts, First Peace won twice and finished second twice in six races. Those races included missing by a half-length in the Siren Lure Stakes on April 24, finishing second by a half-length in the 2024 Daytona, winning the Wickerr Stakes in July, and then winning the Eddie D Stakes in September. Those two efforts earned him figures of 108, 109, 120, and 113. He is coming off a nine-month layoff, and his workouts indicate he is ready to return to his prior efforts.

Amner Hall has a good record in turf sprints, having won twice and finished second twice in his last five races. He earned better than the 111 figure just once, when the race was on the straight course and not the downhill course. Still, he has finished first or second in eight of 12, so he is a horse I feel we have to use in exactas.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Nesso’s Lastharrah at 5 to 2 or higher.

Sumter and 5 to 2 or higher.

First Peace at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Nesso’s Lastharrah, Sumter, First Peace over Nesso’s Lastharrah, Sumter, First Peace, Anmer Hall