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Race 8 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:30 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender: Crossover Capital, River Ride

Other contender: Bella Knows

In this first allowance race, 11 of 12 fillies have won one race. Among the 12, only two horses won their maidens. I find that horses who won their most recent race may be better than those who may have lost one or more races since their one win. The two fitting this criteria are Crossover Capital and River Ride. Both horses are trained by top trainers, Chad Brown and Shug McGaughey.

Crossover Capital won her only race five weeks ago, rallying from fifth to kick away and win by two lengths, despite breaking slowly. She gets the services of Flavien Prat, who, with Brown, has won 26% of turf routes. Brown has won 27% of his horses that run back-to-back after their maidens on turf routes. Crossover Capital has a lot of improvement to do in her second start, and she could win again.

River Ride earned her first win, one month ago on her fourth try. She finished second twice in her other turf routes. Her last race was her best, as she led from the start and never faced a challenge. Even though River Ride won her last race wire-to-wire, she also rallied fast when she finished second, so if another horse gets the front, she has the kick to win. McGaughey has won 23% of his back-to-back maiden winners over turf routes. Jockey Jose Lezcano with McGaughey has won 28% of turf routes.

Bella Knows finished second in her last race, her second career route, in June off a seven-month layoff. In that race, she rallied from eighth of nine, a good effort given her time off. Her last race before the layoff and her first route was last November, where she rallied to second in the Chelsey Flower Stakes. She will be farther early than either Crossover Capital or River Ride, and she is going to improve in her second race off the layoff.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Crossover Capital, River Ride at 5 to 2 or higher.

Bella Knows at 3 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Box Crossover Capital, River Ride, Bella Knows

Double, Pick 3:

Race 8: Crossover Capital, River Ride, Bella Knows

Race 9: Built, Just Beat the Odds, Hymn

Race 10: Always a Runner, Counting Stars

Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes – Race 9 at Saratoga (Grade 2) – Post Time 5:07 PM Eastern

Top Win Contenders: Just Beat the Odds, Built, Hymn

Just Beat the Odds won or finished second in his last 10 races, all at similar distances. His last four races were his best, starting in March 2025, when he returned after 11 months off following his gelding, earning a career-best 108 figure, then set a new career-best figure with a 111 in April. In December 2025, after an eight-month layoff, Just Beat the Odds won the Elite Power Stakes with a 95 figure. Then he went to the Riyadh Dirt Sprint with a $2 million purse and was beaten by less than a length in a field of 13, earning a 104 figure. He came off a four-month layoff to race on June 13, where he pressed the pace and finished third. That may just have been a prep. Just Beat the Odds won his last two races, leading from the start. If Just Beat the Odds repeats any of his three races from last year, he can post a slight upset, as his starting odds are 9 to 2.

Built won five of 12 dirt races and finished another five in second or third, while running in five stakes. He won his sprint debut in October 2024, then won the Gun Runner Stakes and finished second in the 2025 Lecomte Stakes. After that, he finished third in the Risen Star Stakes and fifth in the Louisiana Derby. He returned to one turn in a sloppy race in May, then was off for seven months until December 2025. He won two sprint races at this distance, with one of those races earning a career-best 107 Equibase Speed Figure, then finished third. Then, Built won the best race of his career on May 21 by nearly five lengths and earned a 112 figure, the best of any horse in this field. In his last race, Built ran second for the last half of the race, and the winner, Harrodsburg, won wire-to-wire, but Built was only half a length behind. There is no dyed-in-the-wool speed horse in this race. Built should be in the lead or within a length in the stretch. Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode his last two races, gets the call again.

Hymn hasn’t earned over a 110 figure, but his last three races were fantastic. He won all three, stalking in third or fourth, and the last race he won by five lengths. His three races earned 107 and 108 figures. Hymn needs to run a bit better to win this race. He should be a stalking presence, and if there is a fast pace, Hymn could win again.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Built at 2 to 1 or higher.

Just Beat the Odds at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Hymn at 7 to 2 or higher.Exacta: Box Built, Just Beat the Odds, Hymn

Double:

Race 9: Built, Just Beat the Odds, Hymn

Race 10: Always a Runner, Counting Stars

Coaching Club American Oaks – Race 10 at Saratoga – Post Time 5:54 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Always a Runner, Counting Stars

For third in trifectas: La Rascasse, Measure, Directive

Five of the last 11 winners of the Coaching Club American Oaks won the Acorn Stakes, and two others finished in the money in the Acorn. Two horses come from the Acorn: Always a Runner and Counting Stars; both horses have a good record (winning 8 of 13 races).

Always a Runner and Counting Stars finished first and third, respectively, in the Kentucky Oaks. That was the first time they faced each other. These two then raced each other in the Acorn Stakes on June 5. In that race, Counting Stars won, and Always a Runner finished second. Both fillies earned the best Equibase Speed Figures in the field. Always a Runner earned a 99 when she won the Kentucky Oaks, and Counting Stars earned a 101 figure when she won the Acorn.

This will be their rubber match.

Always a Runner won the Oaks for her third consecutive win in three races, while getting better in each race, earning an 88 Equibase Figure Speed, then 94 and 99. In the Acorn, Always a Runner was a half-length behind the winner, with an eighth of a length to go before she and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. realized they were not going to win. Counting Stars made a better move at the turn to take the lead over Always a Runner. In the Oaks, Always a Runner had a better kick, so I believe Always a Runner should have the better kick this time to win the rubber match, but it is very close.

La Rascasse, Measure and Directive all can finish third, but all three horses will improve to career-best races to finish second (or to win). La Rascasse has won both of her races, including the Monomoy Stakes on June 13, in her second career race and her first route. She earned a 90 figure. Directive and Measure finished first and second, respectively, in an allowance at Saratoga on June 4. They earned 95 and 94 figures, but they are both raised quite a way in class.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Always a Runner, Counting Stars at 3 to 2 or higher.

Exacta: Box Always a Runner, Counting Stars

Trifecta: Always a Runner, Counting Stars over Always a Runner, Counting Stars over La Rascasse, Measure, Directive