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Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint (Grade 2) – Race 6 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 4:21 PM Eastern (3:21 Central)
Top Win Contender(s): Troubleshooting
Other win contenders: My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong
Possible in exactas: Possiblemente
For in trifectas: Quereme Pass, John the Beer Man
Troubleshooting is the ONLY horse in this field to win a stakes race on this unusual course at Kentucky Downs. That was in the Franklin-Simpson Stakes last year when he rallied from fifth at the quarter pole, three lengths back, to win with jockey Tyler Gaffalione. The pace last year was scintillating with the half mile at :44, this year’s Turf Sprint is going to be just as fast. That is because Quereme Pass and John the Beer Man have been in front in every one of their races this year. Mondogetsbuckets and Golden Afternoon will press the top two frontrunners. That puts Troubleshooting about fifth after the half, the same as he was last year.
Troubleshooting is making his fourth start of the year. In his first start after a five-month layoff, he finished a nose off. In his second start off the layoff, he finished third, a neck from second and less than a length from the winner. In his last race, at the same distance (five and a half furlongs) before he won the Franklin-Simpson, he had trouble at the eighth pole when he was sixth, then rallied to finish a neck behind the second-place finisher.
Both My Boy Prince and Usually Wrong have a shot to win or complete the exacta. Possiblemente may also be in the money. My Boy Prince has won 10 of 27 races and won three turf sprint stakes in six races this year. Usually Wrong has also won three turf sprint stakes in four races and has been freshened for a couple of months. Although he had mostly been an early/presser (no worse than second) in his other races this year, his tactics were changed to blinkers and a new jockey, Franco, for his last race, where he rallied from fifth, which gives him a big run again.
There is a possibility that Quereme Pass and John the Man could still be in second or third if they go too fast. Quereme Pass has finished fifth five times in 15 races, and John the Man tired one race back, finishing third but was just a neck behind the second finisher.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Troubleshooting at 5 to 2 or higher.
My Boy Prince and Usually Wrong can be considered at 7 to 2 or higher.
Exacta:
Box: Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong
Box: Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong, Possiblemente
Trifecta: Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong, Possiblemente over Troubleshooting, My Boy Prince, Usually Wrong, Possiblemente over Quereme Pass, John the Beer Man
Kentucky Downs Turf Cup Invitational Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 7 Kentucky Downs – Post Time 4:56 PM Eastern (3:56 Central)
Top Win Contender(s): Tiffany
Other win contenders: Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George, Ethical Diamond
No filly or mare has won the Kentucky Turf Cup Invitational Stakes since the race was first run in 1998, actually, it appears no female has even run in it. However, the mare Tiffany is the horse to beat in this race. She has a record of 5-7-1 in 13 turf races, all in Europe. Her last six races were all the same mile and one-half distance as the Turf Cup. Tiffany also won on a 129 impost, she gets 123 pounds today, three lighter than the likely favorite Ethical Diamond and one lighter than Ole Crazy Bone, who won this year’s Turf Cup. Jockey Luke Morris has been aboard for all of her races. Trainer Sir Mark Prescott has won about 150 races (of about 1030 races). The jockey and trainer won nine Group 1 races. With them the mare, Alpinista, won six consecutive Group 1 races in 2022, including the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, beating males. Alpinista also won the Preis von Berlin that Tiffany just won.
Tiffany raced against males four times and finished second all four times on turf. She won her last race, the Group 1 Westminster Gross Preis von Berlin on August 9, beating eight males and another female. She got the rail in that race, as she did in this race, and she won gamely by a neck when she rallied from about fifth early. She earned her best Equibase Speed Figure, 119, in her third race of the year. Only two horses in this field have earned a 115 or better. So, Tiffany still has a shot to get faster.
Both of the other two top contenders are also making their fourth races of the year, and both have earned 115 figures or better. Those horses are Ole Crazy Bone and Ethical Diamond.
Ole Crazy Bone won the 2025 Turf Cup in his second start after trainer Michael Maker claimed him. He was off for six months, then finished second in a prep of a mile and one-sixteenth. He stretched up to win the marathon Bowling Green Stakes in July. He finished sixth in the Christophe Clement Turf on August 15, where he led for the first half, but that was a very wet (yielding) course that we should discount. Ole Crazy Bone should be either top or second early, as he was when he won the Turf Cup last year or when he led from the start to finish in the Bowling Green. He has finished second five times in 16 turf races and has won six times, so even if he can’t win, he has a very good shot at being second in the exacta.
Ethical Diamond won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Turf at 27 to 1. He was 10th with a quarter to run when he surged to be third, a half-length behind the leader at the eighth pole, and won away. He had the best figure, 124, of any horse in the field of the Cup Turf. He won the Ebor Handicap last year, earning a 102, and 108 winning the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes. His first race of the year was his ninth overall. He won the Ballyroan Stakes at this distance and earned a 112 figure. Other jockeys rode him this year, but Ryan Moore rode him in the Duke of Edinburgh. He is likely to improve also. These three horses make this an excellent race.
Fort George was just a nose behind Old Crazy Bone in the Bowling Green in July. That was his best figure, and he is a four-year-old, so he has room to improve. Two races before his last, he finished second in the Dubai City of Gold on March 28, beaten by Rebel’s Romance, who won 22 of 32 races, including the 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf and the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Turf, and he finished second last year in the Cup Turf. Fort George was entered in the Cristophe Clement, but his trainer scratched him, likely because of the yielding turf. He definitely has a strong shot at the trifecta or exacta based on his last race and the Dubai City of Gold.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Tiffany at 2 to 1 or higher.
Ole Crazy Bone at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.
Both the other contenders, Fort George (with starting odds of 9/2) and Ethical Diamond (at 3 to 1), are horses to use on exactas and doubles and pick 3s.
Exactas:
Tiffany over Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George, and Ethical Diamonds.
Also play the other way: Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George, and Ethical Diamonds over Tiffany.
I would also play these exactas: Ole Crazy Bone over Tiffany, Fort George and Ethical Diamonds and the other way, which is Ole Crazy Bone, Fort George and Ethical Diamonds over Ole Crazy Bone.
Nashville Derby Invitational Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 8 at Kentucky Downs – Post Time 5:36 PM Eastern (4:36 Central)
Top Win Contender(s): Glacius, Causeway
Other contenders: Go Grey
Glacius shipped to the U.S. four weeks ago and won the Saratoga Derby at Saratoga. He got jockey Luis Saez, who sent the horse to the lead even at the fast pace. He earned a career-best 109 Equibase Speed Figure, the best among any other three-year-old in the field. Not only should Glacius improve in his second U.S. start, but he also appears to be the only horse in the race with an “early” style and has Saez aboard again. His starting odds are 4 to 1, behind Causeway, the favorite and the only other contender.
Causeway is from the powerful stables of Aidan O’Brien. This trainer has won 10 races in 38 starts over the last five years, but that means he didn’t win 28 times. His horses have finished second five times in the same time frame. His number one jockey, Ryan Moore, is much better than the other jockeys riding for O’Brien. The jockey/trainer combination in the U.S. has won nine of 19 starts. Causeway won his first four races this year, including the Gallinule Stakes at this distance, and he won the King Edward VII Stakes at 12 furlongs. In the Gran Prix de Paris, Causeway was sent to the lead, but he tired and finished seventh. In his last two races, Causeway was second early and won by less than a head and by a neck.
I also want to use Go Grey in my bets and in exactas for sure. Michael Maker just claimed him. The horse has been first or second in four turf races, and he just finished second at Saratoga at a mile and one-sixteenth. The reason Maker is so good with these horses is that when they run longer races, the fractions allow them to conserve their energy, as opposed to being early in shorter races, and nearly all have earned their best Equibase Speed Figures. Maker has won or finished second seven times in 22 races, some at high odds. Jose Ortiz gets on Go Grey here, and that is all we need to see: the top jockey is aboard.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Bet both Glacius at 5 to 2 or higher.
Causeway at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exacta:
Box: Glacius and Causeway
Box: Glacius, Causeway, Go Grey