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Summer Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 7 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Al Hudaiba

Other win contenders: Big Money Man, Sword Salute

Before we get into Al Hudaiba, we see that, with one exception, all top contenders in these three races are European imports, and I believe they will win or finish second. In the Summer Stakes and the Woodbine Mile, European imports have won six times and placed second in 10 races since 2020. Five of these wins are by trainer Charlie Appleby, one trained by Andrew Balding.

Al Hudaiba is one of three horses at Woodbine running from the powerful stables of Charlie Appleby. The other two are Notable Speech in the Woodbine Mile (race 9) and Diamond Rain in the E.P. Taylor (race 10). Al Hudaiba has the top class and the best Equibase Speed Figure in the field, winning the Group 2 Superlative Stakes on July 11 and earning a ‘Superlative’ 108 figure. He ran just 17 days after that and finished third by a nose and a half-length in the Group 2 Coral Vintage Stakes on July 28, earning a similar 106 figure. Those two races are equivalent to the Grade 1 Summer Stakes. The runner-up in the Coral Vintage, Haffner, improved to win the Acomb Stakes in August. No other horse in this field has earned even a 100 figure. Al Hudaiba’s jockey, William Buick, is the top jockey for this trainer, and together they won this race in 2022 with Mysterious Night and finished second in 2024 and 2025. Al Hudaiba has no knocks and should win this race.

There are two other imports, Big Money Man and Sword Salute, who have a shot if, for some reason, Al Hudaiba doesn’t win. Big Money Man won his second career race on July 26 by five lengths, earning a 100 figure. In his only race since then, he finished second as the favorite. In that race, Big Money Man rallied to the lead in the stretch, and even though he was beaten by almost two lengths, earning a 92 figure, he was three lengths ahead of the third-place horse. He is likely to improve. Sword Salute is owned by Godolphin, the same as Al Hadaiba, and won his first race by two lengths in an eighteen-horse field after leading from the start at odds of 30/1. He is a Kentucky colt who had his second career start in May. He earned a 96 figure and a similar 95 figure in his two starts. Neither Sword Salute nor Big Money Man has run in even a group three stakes, while Al Hudaiba has run in group two races, including both of his last starts.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Al Hudaiba at 2 to 5 or higher. Yes, 2 to 5, and this bet is a good bet because the takeout promotion at Amwager gets you $2.88 on a $2 bet when it usually pays $2.40.

Big Money Man and Sword Salute can be considered at 4 to 1 or higher.

Exacta:

Al Hadaiba over Big Money Man, Sword Salute

Woodbine Mile (Grade 1) – Race 9 Woodbine – Post Time 5:20 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Archivist, Notable Speech

Other win contenders: Deterministic, Silius

Archivist won his last two races, including the Coral Golden Mile on July 31 when he won in a field of 18 horses. He also won on August 22 in the Group 3 Sky Strensall Stakes, when he powered ahead by seven lengths over 10 other horses. That was one of three wins this year, all at left-handed courses, like the one today at Woodbine. His last race earned his best Equibase Speed Figure, 123, similar to the 121 figure Notable Speech earned in his last race. Archivist has won three of four races at this distance. Archivist is trained by Hamad Al Jehani, who won twice in turf routes at Woodbine last year. Given that Archivist is a four-year-old, he does have a shot to improve again.

Jockey Joao Moreira is one of the top jockeys in the world and has won more than 1,500 races. Moreira has raced in North America just 18 times, mostly in 2013, when he had 13 in-the-money finishes. This year he has ridden mostly in Hong Kong, where he won 32 of 193 races. Moreira has never raced for this trainer, but since the jockey is world-class and is riding Archivist, if he wins, he will get an entry into the Breeders’ Cup Mile; this could be the difference in this race.

Notable Speech is the Appleby runner in this race, which he won last year before winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He earned a 111 figure in the Woodbine Mile, then earned a 112 in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. He was off until April, then shipped to the U.S. He had trouble in his first race this year, finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Makers’ Mile Stakes in April, then he went back to the U.K. He won the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes, rebounding to earn his second-highest career figure of 127. Notable Speech again ran poorly and finished sixth in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes. He also finished poorly in two other races at Ascot. Other than Ascot, Notable Speech has won nine of 15 races. On August 22, he won powerfully in the Group 1 City of York Stakes in a field of 14. Jockey Buick has ridden him in his last four wins in seven races since the Woodbine Mile last year. Notable Speech is a must-use in all exotics, but his odds may be too low to bet on.

Silius, a four-year-old like Archivist, has won eight races, with five at this distance. He won his first pattern (group stakes) on July 19 in the Group 3 Prix Messidor when he was fourth in the stretch, then he was tipped out and surged. He earned a 111 figure. One race back, he finished second by a nose in the Group 3 Prix de la Porte Mail. The third horse, Erdenali, just won the Group 1 Prix du Moulin de Longchamp. If Silius improves like Erdenali, he can upset the Woodbine Mile.

Deterministic is the only North American based horse in the field. He has won six consecutive races, five of those with trainer Miguel Clement, and all six with Kendrick Carmouche aboard. He has won three races at this distance, and his best Equibase Speed Figures, 120 and 118, were in two of those races. He gets the rail, which means he will be first or second early, and he finishes off well. Although Archivist and Notable Speech are both world-class milers, Deterministic fits in this race.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Archivist at 9 to 5 or higher.

Silius at odds of 7 to 2 or higher.

Exactas:

Archivist, Notable Speech over Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Notable Speech over Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Box: Archivist, Notable Speech over Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Doubles:

Race 9: Archivist, Notable Speech

Race 10: See The Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis

Race 9: Archivist, Notable Speech, Deterministic, Silius

Race 10: See The Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis

E.P. Taylor Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 10 at Woodbine – Post Time 5:55 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): See The Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis

See the Fire won two races this year, both about this one and one-quarter mile distance. The first came in April when she came back from nearly six months off to win, then she won the Group 2 Dubai Middleton Fillies Stakes. That earned her a career-best 116 Equibase Speed Figure. The mare went to face males in the Group 1 Prince of Wales’s Stakes including Ombudsman, one of the best horses in the world. She went up against her gender and finished third in the Nassau Stakes on July 26, earning a 113 figure, the same as in the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Stakes. The second finisher, Friendly Soul, then went on to win the Group 1 Qatar Prix Vermeille, one of the premier races in Europe each year. Her trainer, Andrew Balding, has only run one horse at Woodbine, when he saddled New Century in 2024. The trainer gets one of his top jockeys, Robert Hornby, who won 20% of his races in 2026 (127 of 621), to ride. See The Fire has run twice against Diamond Rain, with Diamond Rain finishing third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare, where See The Fire finished ninth, and in 2026, See The Fire won the Middleton and Diamond Rain finished third, two lengths behind. See The Fire is likely to have better odds than Diamond Rain and is more likely to win.

In May, Diamond Rain finished third, off a six-month layoff, and earned a 114 figure. She missed by a nose on June 26, earning a 107 figure; then she stepped down a class to win a listed stakes, earning a 103 figure. Last year Diamond Rain missed by a head in this race, with a 110 figure. Considering she has won five races in 11, and with two races in her last five races beaten by a nose and a head, she has every way to win.

Jancis is an interesting mare. She has won three and placed second twice in 13 races, but her best races are good enough to make her competitive. Her best race came on May 3 when she won the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes. The Dahlia was the third time Jancis had ever run a mile and eighth, and she finished second in another race. In the other race at this distance, the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes last June, she was overmatched. However, she has grown this year, and when she ran in the Group 1 Cambridge Stakes on June 17, she earned a 114 figure. She gets an excellent turf jockey, Hector Berrios, who is in from California. If she repeats her effort from the Dahlia, and Diamond Rain and See The Fire also run well, this could be an exceptional race.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Bet any two of these horses: See the Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis at 5 to 2 or higher.

Exacta:

Box: See the Fire, Diamond Rain, Jancis