Saturday October 17
Race 8 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:44 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Bojaca Blessing. Ontario, Hear the Queen
Bojaca Blessing stepped down in class from the Grade 2 John C. Mabee, where she finished third, and the runner-up, Thought Process, went on to win the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive Stakes. Bojaca Blessing won her previous race at this distance, as well as the race before. Bojaca Blessing, running again at this distance and in this easier class, could rebound.
Ontario also dropped from stakes to this allowance race after she finished fourth in Canada. She won two starts back with Jose Ortiz riding her for the first time. Ortiz didn’t ride for her last race but he gets aboard again. She won her only try at Keeneland six months ago. Either of those efforts is good enough to place second or win.
Hear the Queen was off for eight and a half months before she finished third on September 9. She was the favorite and was second at the eighth pole, missing the runner-up by less than a length. She needed that race. Hear the Queen won her last two races before the layoff and jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode for one of those races. He was aboard when she missed by a head one year ago at Keeneland, the only other time he rode her. She should improve in the second race off the layoff, and she could earn her fifth career win in her eighth two-turn race.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Bojaca Blessing. Ontario, Hear the Queen at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. I would bet two of three at these odds or higher.
Exacta: Box Bojaca Blessing. Ontario, Hear the Queen
Also – Bojaca Blessing. Ontario, Hear the Queen over ALL
Lexus Raven Run Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Movie Night, Conceit, Mashallah
Other contenders in second on exactas: With a Kiss, Star Actress
Movie Night finished third, and Conceit won in the Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes on September 19 with a neck between them. Movie Night was doing all the dirty work when she was second, running head-to-head with Explora for almost the entire time. Explora finished a head behind the winner, and Movie Night another head behind. Movie Night gets a jockey change to Flavien Prat, who rode her just once, gaining a win by five lengths. The difference in jockeys means she can beat Conceit this time.
Conceit won the Dogwood Stakes last month, her third straight, including another stakes win on August 1. Irad Ortiz, Jr. rode her once, on June 26, in an allowance race, where she won by 10 lengths. Ortiz, Jr. was injured in the summer, so other jockeys rode her, but he is back aboard. Both of Conceit’s last two races were at this distance, and she has a chance to win her fourth. The only reason I put Conceit second is because she will have lower odds compared to Movie Night.
Mashallah is also trying to win her fourth consecutive win. She won a non-graded stakes race back in August at this seven-furlong distance. Then she cut back to six furlongs to win the Grade 3 Prioress Stakes on September 9. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione rode her to win her first three races, but he was at another track, so Manny Franco rode in her last start. Gaffalione is aboard again. Mashallah continues to win easily, as her last three races were won by seven, five, and five lengths. However, Mashallah opens as the favorite, and she isn’t better than either Movie Night or Conceit.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Movie Night, Conceit, Mashallah at odds of 5 to 2 or higher. I would bet two of three at these odds or higher.
Exactas:
Box Movie Night, Conceit, Mashallah
Also – Movie Night, Conceit, Mashallah over Movie Night, Conceit, Mashallah, With a Kiss, Star Actress
Sunday October 18
Rood & Riddle Dowager Stakes – Race 7 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Speed Shopper, Pretty Tapit
Other contenders in second on exactas: Malibu Smart, Fionn, Snipsnipitysnip, Golden Sunshine
Speed Shopper won the April Bewitch Stakes at Keeneland, at the same one and one-half mile distance. She stepped up in class to a Grade 1 stakes at a shorter distance (one mile and three-sixteenths) and a Grade 2 stakes, finishing seventh and fifth. She tried dirt in the Grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes, where she did not belong. Fully Subscribed, the winner, subsequently won another Grade 1 race, the Spinster Stakes. Both of Speed Shopper’s other two dirt races were poor.
Now Speed Shopper is back on the turf, in a Grade 3 race, and back at Keeneland at the distance she won. John Velazquez rode her in the Bewitch and on January 26, for her other win in the Grade 3 Christophe Clement Stakes also at this distance. Johnny didn’t ride her for the poor efforts in the Grade 1 or Grade 2 stakes. He did ride Speed Shopper in the Personal Ensign, but that is a race I have drawn a line through because she simply didn’t belong there. So, she and Velazquez have a good shot to rebound and win again.
Pretty Tapit has run four races since she changed trainers to Joe Sharp with a record of 2-1-0. Before that, her record was 0-1-1 in nine races. In her first race for Sharp on May 24, she finished second on a sloppy dirt track that had been switched from turf. In Sharp’s second start with her on June 14, he put her in a one-and-a-half-mile race and she won by five lengths. She finished sixth in her next race, but rebounded to win her last race by seven lengths. Jose Ortiz rode Pretty Tapit in the last race, and although she has never run in a stakes race, this filly has a big shot if she repeats that race.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Speed Shopper at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.
Pretty Tapit at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Box Speed Shopper and Pretty Tapit
Also – Speed Shopper and Pretty Tapit over Speed Shopper, Pretty Tapit, Malibu Smart, Fionn, Snipsnipitysnip, and Golden Sunshine