Friday October 23

Valley View Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM

Top Win Contender(s): Define

Others for exactas: Sister Troienne, Call On Me, Essential Lady, That’s How We Love, Dakotah Blue

Define won both of her U.S. races at this circuit. Her only poor effort came in August at the Del Mar Oaks. Tyler Gaffalione rode for her last win and rides today. That race was against older horses and now she moves back to just three-year-olds. Define earned a career-best 100 Equibase Speed Figure, the top figure in this field. She also had the best final figure in her recent race when she moved fast from fifth, five lengths back, to win going away.

The favorite is Sister Troienne, but her best races aren’t any better than Define’s. Sister Troienne’s best effort came when she was beaten by a head in the Homecomesthebride Stakes in February. She was the favorite in the Appalachian Stakes at Keeneland last April, where she led at the eighth pole but she finished fifth. She came back six months later in the Winter Memories Stakes, and she rallied from eighth to miss by less than a length. Still, even though Sister Troienne should improve in her second race off the layoff, Define is also going to improve. Define opens at 9 to 2 versus 6 to 5 for Sister Troienne.

Call Me On won her first allowance race one back. Her only race since the win was at Kentucky Downs, where she finished eighth, which many horses don’t like. The jockey aboard in her win, Christian Torres, didn’t ride her last race and gets back aboard. Essential Lady won the Curtis Sampson Stakes two races back after she changed to trainer Thomas Jonathan, then she won again, earning a 97 figure, the same figure as Sister Troienne’s best figure in the Homecomesthebride. That’s How We Love won her first career start, a turf route powerfully by eight lengths. In her second career race, she was bumped at the break and started in ninth. Still, she roared in the stretch and missed by a half-length and a pair of noses when she finished fourth. Dakotah Blue also ran her last race at Kentucky Downs. She won her second back race in the Ontario Colleen Stakes on July 25 at this mile distance and earned a 96 figure. She also has a shot to be in the exacta.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Define at odds of 2 to 1 or higher.

Exacta: Define over Call On Me, Sister Troienne, Essential Lady, That’s How We Love, Dakotah Blue

Saturday October 24

Bryan Station Stakes (Grade 2) – Race 9 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:16 PM

Top Win Contender(s): Alpyland, Remember Mamba, Conducted

Alpyland has won SIX of 11 turf races, including a win at Keeneland. She has won four stakes in turf routes among eight races. In her recent race (September 7), she rallied from sixth to take the lead by the eighth pole but finished third. That was a sprint, and she stretches back in this race when her last five wins were all routes. She has also won her only try at Keeneland. She also gets blinkers off, which helps her see other horses better in the stretch. Jockey Javier Castellano has been aboard for her last six races, including her win in the Penn Mile the last time she ran this distance. She has won three of her other races at this mile distance, so she has a shot at keeping her unbeaten record for this distance.

Remember Mamba gets blinkers for the first time, which may help her be closer to the lead. All six of her starts were with Jose Ortiz. She won both of her races at Keeneland, including the Transylvania Stakes in the spring, a similar stakes race. Since the equipment change, she put in an excellent workout, covering four furlongs in 48, the second-best of 81 on that day. She has a shot to rebound.

Conducted is likely to be a leading contender in this race. In her last race, the Gun Runner Stakes, she led from the start and was still two lengths back at the eighth pole. Only the winner, Bottas, could outfinish her, and she was two lengths ahead of the third horse. Last time this year, she won her maiden and the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes, both wire to wire. Her recent race was her second off a nine-month layoff, and it was her best career effort. She could improve in her third off the layoff, so she could be tough to beat.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Alpyland, Remember Mamba at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.

Conducted at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.

Exactas:

Box Alpyland, Remember Mamba, Conducted

Race 10 at Keeneland – Post Time 5:48 PM Eastern

Top Win Contender(s): Memory, Steel, Preside

Other contenders on exactas: Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman

All six horses can win or finish second. However, there are three horses that have a higher probability, so we will key on them: Memory, Steel, and Preside.

Memory won one race in his first six races, but the other five races were poor. However, everything changed when he switched trainers to Brendan Walsh, and that was his best race by far. That race was off a three-month layoff. He got the lead by a head in the first quarter and was a head behind at the quarter pole. Memory got the lead again, and he drew off. That effort was a career-best 95 Equibase Speed Figure, and he has a lot of improving to do.

Steel changed trainers to Dallas Stewart, who has won 20% of races this year, and jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr., who has won 20% with the trainer. Steel’s last race was the Bourbon Flight Stakes with a $300K purse and he finished sixth, but he is dropping in class to when he won a race back when he earned a 97 figure. Also, last race was without Lasix, but he gets it again, so I think he can rebound, and at 15 to 1 he has a shot to upset.

Preside won two races at this nine-furlong distance, earning excellent figures of 93 and 97, but his efforts aren’t better than those of other horses. He gets the outside, but on this nine-furlong distance he has the length of the stretch to get inside, which gives him a chance.

Bourbon Dream opens too high at 30 to 1. He won his last race on dirt after three turf races. He earned a career-best 96 figure in that race. He is a quality horse, and his half-sister (by the dam), Bless the Broken, has won $1.7 million. Bourbon Dreams won at this distance on turf; his trainer is excellent, and he gets Joel Rosario up. If he runs again as he did recently, he could make us some money. Sassmaster drops after the Pennsylvania Derby, where he finished third. One back, he won at this distance in an allowance race. That effort earned a 99 figure, as good, but not better than any of the other five contenders. Our Moneyman has won three races, the best of any horse in the race. He also finished second three times. He also dropped off the Pennsylvania Derby and finished fourth. He finished second in his second and third stakes races. But his route wins came in two races in Louisiana. His best figures were 92, 92, and 100. He is another contender, but his starting odds are too low to bet him at 2 to 1.

Handicapper Picks

Win bets: Memory, Steel, Preside at odds of 3 to 1 or higher. I would bet two of three at these odds or higher.

Exactas:

Memory, Steel, Preside over Memory, Steel, Preside, Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman

Also opposite:

Bourbon Dream, Sassmaster, Our Moneyman, Memory, Steel, Preside over Memory, Steel, Preside