Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 4 at Keeneland – Post Time 1:10 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Kilwin, Foie Gras
Other win contenders, for exactas: Ways and Means, Explora, R Disaster
The early pace in this race makes it playable because R Disaster, Kerry’s Kiss, and Sweet Azteca are ALL horses who only run one way – go to the lead. That makes the closers the horses that have the best chances.
Kilwin won three races among four dirt sprints in her career, starting in sixth (last), eighth (last), and fourth at the opening quarter, including the Grade 1 Test Stakes, last August 2025. Two of those races were seven furlongs, the same as the Filly & Mare Stakes. She ran poorly on turf in September 2025, then took an eight-month layoff. Kilwin won in July this year at six furlongs and earned her career-best Equibase Speed Figure of 106. The favorite, Ways and Means, earned 108 and 106 in her last two races. In her last race, the Grade 1 Ballerina Stakes, Kilwin rallied from last (ninth) to get second behind Ways and Means. Kilwin is as fast as the four other contenders, and because she starts at 8 to 1, she is my top pick.
Foie Gras had a record of 2-4-0 in her first 10 starts. She was privately purchased by trainer Michael Maker between November and December, and since then has not finished worse than second in five of six races, all stakes races, and in her other race she finished third, beaten by a head and a neck. Foie Gras won her first two races for Maker in December and February, both non-graded stakes. She then finished second in March in the Matron Stakes, then she finished the aforementioned third in May in the Winning Colors Stakes. In the Grade 2 Chicago Stakes in June, at this distance, Foie Gras moved from third to get the lead by a length at the eighth pole and was just beaten by a head. She won her last race in August at the distance of this race, clear by seven lengths. Her effort in the Chicago Stakes earned her a career-best figure of 109, and she earned a 106 in her most recent race. All of her wins this year were when she was fifth or fourth early, so she could have a shot. Also, Foie Gras has finished second 11 times in 16 races, and her starting odds of 20 to 1 make her good to use in exactas.
All three other contenders have excellent records: Ways and Means has 10 firsts or seconds in 13 races, Explora has
10 firsts or seconds in 11 races, and R Disaster with 16 firsts or seconds in 18 races; but none of them have any better probabilities than Kilwin and Foie Gras. So, we should use them in exactas, top and bottom, with Kilwin and Foie Gras.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Kilwin at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Foie Gras at odds of 6 to 1 or higher.
Exacta: Kilwin, Foie Gras over Ways and Means, Explora, R Disaster
ALSO, the opposite: Ways and Means, Explora, R Disaster over Kilwin, Foie Gras
Breeders’ Cup Mile Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 6 at Keeneland – Post Time 2:26 PM
Top Win Contender(s): Forged Steel, Further Ado, Full Serrano
For exactas in second: Chunk of Gold
At a one-mile distance on dirt, I believe horses cutting back from 1 1/8 or 1 1/4 miles have the advantage over those coming off one-mile or shorter races like six furlongs, seven furlongs.
Forged Steel won the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes on September 26 at one mile and one-eighth distance, a “Win & You’re In” to the Classic (at one mile and one-quarter), but his connections are trying this mile. His record at one mile is 2-1 in three races, so it makes sense. In the Goodwood, Forged Steel raced in second at the first calls (the half mile and the three quarters) and took the lead by two lengths at the quarter pole, winning by one and one-quarter lengths. He earned a 107 Equibase Speed Figure, the same that the favorite, Further Ado, earned in his last race. Forged Steel also won the Grade 2 Gold Cup in May and earned a 107 figure, and he won one prior with a 107. In the Gold Cup, Forged Steel led from the start, winning by nine lengths, and earned another 107 figure. Now that he has won after two poor races in July and August, he has a shot at his second win. Forged Steel starts at 15 to 1 compared to 2 to 1 for Further Ado.
Further Ado is also cutting back from one mile and one-eighth and he, like Forged Steel, has tactical speed. Further Ado finished second by a half-length in his last race, the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby, when he rallied from fourth, tying his career-best 107 figure. Further Ado won two races this year, the Grade 2 Matt Winn Stakes in June and the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes also with a 107 figure. The Matt Winn win came when he cut back after he finished 11th in the Kentucky Derby. Further Ado is racing older horses for the first time, so he can improve, and he gets the rail. He has a big probability of finishing second or winning.
Full Serrano won this race in 2024 after he cut back from one mile and one-quarter following his second-place finish in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic. He is repeating that pattern this year, as he finished third in this year’s Pacific Classic. In 2025, Full Serrano finished second in the Goodwood Stakes, but he only finished fifth that year in the Mile. His sharp trainer John Sadler isn’t moving from California to Kentucky to see the colorful fall leaves. Full Serrano opens at 10 to 1, and if he runs as he did in 2024 when he earned 113 and 117 figures, he has a shot to post the upset.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Forged Steel at odds of 3 to 1 or higher.
Full Serrano at odds of 5 to 1 or higher.
Exactas:
Box Forged Steel, Full Serrano, Further Ado over Forged Steel, Full Serrano, Further Ado, Chunk of Gold
Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes (Grade 1) – Race 12 at Keeneland – Post Time 6:16 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender(s): Magnitude, Sovereignty, Forever Young
Win bets: Magnitude, Sovereignty, Forever Young at odds of 2 to 1, or 5 to 2 or higher. I would bet two of three at these odds or higher.
Even though this field is spectacular, I feel these three contenders are much more likely than the other five entrants. Among the three, Magnitude offers value at his starting odds of 6 to 1. Magnitude beat Sovereignty when he won the Stephen Foster Stakes in June, and Magnitude won over Forever Young in the Dubai World Cup Stakes in March. The Foster was Magnitude’s fourth straight graded stakes from November through June. His only poor start since that time came in his last race, in the Whitney Stakes in August, where he stumbled at the start and used a good amount of energy to get to second at the first quarter. His last four wins were all when he was leading or second or leading at the start. The only reason Magnitude’s odds are higher than Sovereignty and Forever Young is because of his last race. Magnitude’s best is as good as either of the other two, and he won this distance in the Dubai World Cup. He has no knocks.
Sovereignty is the 2025 Horse of the Year. He won four straight stakes wins from the Kentucky Derby to the Travers in August 2025. However, all four races were in his three-year-old year. He started this year finishing second in the Oaklawn Handicap, then Sovereignty finished third, five lengths behind Magnitude in the Foster. In his last race, the Whitney Stakes, he won with a burst of speed from sixth, seven lengths on five-six paths wide, and he powered away. However, the pace was scintillating (46.2 and 109.6), and the pace in this race may be slower. Sovereignty is perfect three-of-three at this distance. Sovereignty can win, but he will have to run his best to do it.
Forever Young won the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic Stakes, and every race he has run since then has been to get him into peak physical shape for this race. Forever Young won his first race this year in the Saudi Cup in March. However, he wasn’t good enough to beat Magnitude in the Dubai World Cup when Magnitude won wire-to-wire. Forever Young took a layoff from March to September, then easily won the Jockey Club Gold Stakes at this distance. However, the second finisher, Stars and Stripes, finished second in the Grade 3 Hagyard Fayette Stakes two weeks ago when the winner (Willy D’s) nearly led from the start.
Handicapper Picks
Win bets: Forged Steel at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
Exactas:
Box: Magnitude, Sovereignty, Forever Young.