Key Races & Bets for Saturday November 9th, 2024
Hill Prince Stakes – Race 5 at Aqueduct – Post Time 1:40 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Bartlett, Cugino, Deterministic
Among the three win contenders, not only do I suspect Bartlett will go to post at the highest odds, he is also the one to catch, and to beat. In spite of winning four of six in his career including two in a row, he’s never run on turf, he’s never run this nine furlong trip and his wins have all come at Parx. None of that matters, because first of all his last two wins came against older and he’s facing three year olds only, with five of the other six not having faced older and with the one which did (Right to Vote) having just broken his maiden in his last start, which was two months ago. Chad Brown saddles both Main Beach and Right to Vote and as is often the case, Brown’s horses will be bet more heavily than makes sense given their probability. Both of the Brown charges aren’t fast enough to win if they repeat their best efforts, which yielded 99 and 96 Equibase Speed Figures, compared to 102 for Deterministic, 103 for Cugino and 110 for Bartlett.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 12th, 2024
Sands Point Stakes – Race 5 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 2:13 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Courbe, Style Points
For use on exacta tickets: Mo Fox Girvin, Spaliday
Having never run on turf, Courbe may be ignored by some bettors, perhaps for our benefit. This exceptionally well-bred daughter of Quality Road is out of an unraced mare which was bred by the owners, Wertheimer et Frere, who have campaigned some of the best turf horses in the world for decades. Courbe won in her debut last August (2023) on dirt then as you might expect for a talented two year old was put on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. After finishing fourth in the Pocahontas Stakes she dropped into an allowance race and won easily once again. She may have had issues so was off for nine months until this past July when Courbe returned in a stakes at Saratoga on dirt and finished just a neck behind the runner-up, in spite of almost falling at the start. Off that effort she was well-regarded at 7 to 2 in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes in August but once again had trouble at the start, getting pinched back to last. She moved up to third mid-race but then tired. The winner of that race was Gun Song, who came back to nearly defeat Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes last month. Considering this horse’s breeding for turf and quality, that she’s making her third start off a layoff and won her third carer start, and that trainer Todd Pletcher won this race with Wait a While moving from dirt to turf, I think Courbe can post the upset. It may also be important to note the jockey Carmouche rides for the first time and has a very good record for Pletcher – 63 for 250 over the last five years and better still perhaps 11 for 58 in stakes races.
East Coast West Coast
Saratoga and Del Mar will both be here before we know it. We plan on taking our share of big swings at both meets. We’ll see if we can pad […]
Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 29, 2024
Manila Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) – Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Please Advise, Mattingly
Although only six are entered, there’s only one from the Chad Brown barn, Move to Gold, who may be favored off a nose defeat in the Jersey Derby for weeks ago. He also won the Awad Stakes last October on this course, but he’s no standout based on a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Jersey Derby. Another horse likely to take money is Deterministic, who won the Gotham Stakes on dirt in March before running exceptionally poorly in the Wood Memorial (at 4 to 5 odds) and in the Peter Pan. He’s never run on turf and will be overbet. Neat won the Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland one before his most recent race but ran inexplicably bad in the American Turf on Derby day and there is a question mark about whether he can rebound here, but he may also be bet because he’s dropping from grade 2 to grade 3. Drunk on Sake is completely over matched here coming off a maiden claiming win where he wired the field on slow fractions. He will not have the lead in this field and that takes him out of the mix.
The Wild Applause
Not many will remember Wild Applause or the family she hailed from. It was one of the best grass pedigrees I can recall and she herself could be referred to […]