Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 19th, 2024
Race 8 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Paros
Other contenders: Bold Discovery, Dripping Gold, Taking Candy, Irish Aces
Paros just ran the best race of his career, in his 16th career start, but more importantly first for Mike Maker off the claim. He had won two in a row prior to that, all on turf, then on 9/1 at Saratoga the horse showed a visually impressive turn of foot going from seventh, to fifth, to the lead with a strong 111 Equibase Speed Figure and sensational 22.2 last quarter mile. He’s likely to improve upon as he moves up in class just one step from NW2X to NW3X and gets the rail to save ground before launching his late bid.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 12th, 2024
Sands Point Stakes – Race 5 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 2:13 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Courbe, Style Points
For use on exacta tickets: Mo Fox Girvin, Spaliday
Having never run on turf, Courbe may be ignored by some bettors, perhaps for our benefit. This exceptionally well-bred daughter of Quality Road is out of an unraced mare which was bred by the owners, Wertheimer et Frere, who have campaigned some of the best turf horses in the world for decades. Courbe won in her debut last August (2023) on dirt then as you might expect for a talented two year old was put on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. After finishing fourth in the Pocahontas Stakes she dropped into an allowance race and won easily once again. She may have had issues so was off for nine months until this past July when Courbe returned in a stakes at Saratoga on dirt and finished just a neck behind the runner-up, in spite of almost falling at the start. Off that effort she was well-regarded at 7 to 2 in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes in August but once again had trouble at the start, getting pinched back to last. She moved up to third mid-race but then tired. The winner of that race was Gun Song, who came back to nearly defeat Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes last month. Considering this horse’s breeding for turf and quality, that she’s making her third start off a layoff and won her third carer start, and that trainer Todd Pletcher won this race with Wait a While moving from dirt to turf, I think Courbe can post the upset. It may also be important to note the jockey Carmouche rides for the first time and has a very good record for Pletcher – 63 for 250 over the last five years and better still perhaps 11 for 58 in stakes races.
The Champagne Stakes
There are plenty of stakes to choose from this Saturday and there is no shortage of Breeders’ Cup implications. The Champagne has implications beyond the Breeders’ Cup and into who […]
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 5th, 2024
Frizette Stakes – Race 7 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 3:17 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Another Cleeshay, Senza Parole, Snowyte
Another Cleeshay may be ignored in the betting off a maiden win at Saratoga compared to others with stakes races recently. However, she won much more easily than the 78 Equibase Speed Figure makes it appear, virtually galloping late to a nine and one-half length win. This was AFTER tossing her head to the side when the gate opened, breaking eighth of 10, before easily gaining the lead and not showing any signs of mis-expending any energy. Trainer Contessa won the 2023 Hopeful Stakes for two year olds last year at 50 to 1 odds off a horse with just a maiden win and I think this filly is going to be well worth wagering on today as she can post the upset.
Another Super Saturday
Another Super Saturday This will be one of the last if not the last Super Saturdays prior to the Breeders’ Cup. There will be some nice cards at Keeneland but […]