Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 8, 2024
True North Stakes – Race 4 at Saratoga – Post Time 12:31 PM Eastern
Top Contenders: Rotknee
Other contenders: Accretive, Gun It, Gun Pilot
Gun Pilot, who won the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby day at 5 to 1, opens as the even money favorite here. I know a morning linemaker’s job is to estimate what odds a horse will be at post time, and as such perhaps Gun Pilot will be the prohibitive favorite at post time but it’s odd because prior to that win, the colt won two allowance races and was runner-up in a non-graded stakes race. OTHER horses in the field have similarly good recent races, except they don’t have a graded stakes win, but they have run AS FAST.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 25, 2024
Pennine Ridge Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A – Post Time 3:39 PM Eastern
Top Contender: Royal Majesty
Others win contenders: White Palomino, Triple Espresso
Royal Majesty debuted in England last October and finished fifth of 11 but was a different horse just three months later when running in Florida, having moved to the barn of trainer Bill Mott. After racing in eighth in the field of 11 for the opening quarter mile, Royal Majesty moved up to seventh, then fifth, then third, before showing a lot of physical and mental talent to win by a neck. Next placed in the Colonel Liam Stakes in March, Royal Majesty could only manage a fifth of nine finish. However, last month at Keeneland the colt showed even more ability than he had in his debut when showing a strong turn of foot going from sixth on the far turn while four paths wide to within a head of the lead with an eighth of a mile to go. Drawing away from the other 10 horses to win by two lengths, Royal Majesty earned a career-best 97 Equibase Speed Figure and as it appears he is likely to improve again that makes him a strong contender to win this year’s Pennine Ridge Stakes.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 18, 2024
Sir Barton Stakes – Race 10 at Pimlico – Post Time 4:10 PM Eastern
Top Contender: Tuscan Sky
Others to consider: D Day Sky, Daily Grind, Mighty Message, Corporate Power, Imperial Gun
Tuscan Sky may be a standout in this race, but he’s not the morning line favorite, as he opens at 5 to 2 compared to 9 to 5 for Corporate Power. Tuscan Sky won the first two races of his career, easily, including his first two-turn race on 2/17 at this distance. He ran poorly in the Wood Memorial and this is a much easier test, almost a non-winners of 2 allowance level race. He earned a field high 99 Equibase Speed Figure in his route win and in this field he should have an easy lead from the start and prove very tough to catch.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 11, 2024
Race 5 at Belmont at the Big A- Post Time 2:36 PM Eastern
Contenders: Borletti, Marathoner, Devil’s Cay
Add for off turf: Lookin’ Super, High Heat
This race at six furlongs on turf kicks off a great three race sequence including two stakes. Borletti has won two of seven since importing to the U.S. last September, all on dirt. However, he is bred to like the turf although he’s 0 for eight on it, but only 0 for 2 in the U.S., with both those races under a previous trainer’s care. Now in the Dutrow barn, Borletti, nearly won (missing by a nose) off the claim at this distance on dirt, then finished fourth in a race where he had significant traffic trouble. Irad Ortiz, Jr. gets on and that’s a big sign for his best race yet at Ortiz, Jr. and Dutrow are 8 for 23 together, including 5 for 7 at Aqueduct (and Belmont at the Big A) in the past two years. The 92 Equibase Speed figure Borletti earned when missing by a nose one back is the top recent figure by any horse in the field and that gives him a good shot to emerge victorious here.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday May 3 and May 4, 2024
Friday May 3 Westchester Stakes (Grade 3) – Race 8 at Belmont – Post Time 4:42 PM Eastern
Contenders:
Charge It won the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes last July at a mile and one-eighth and has won at a mile and one-sixteenth and this one milt trip around one turn, twice. One of those was in the 2022 Dwyer Stakes as a three year old where he crushed the field by 23 lengths with a sparkling 114 Equibase Speed Figure. Something caused him to go to the sidelines for seven months after that and he returned with a 109 figure winning easily. Proving himself stakes quality again, Charge It finished second in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Mile (around one turn like the Westchester) then two later he won the Suburban before three 4th place efforts in a row including the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. Being off for five months and having fired to win off a seven month layoff, there’s no concern about the layoff and frankly, his best race is good enough to win and it appears based on consistent workouts for Pletcher, that should happen.