Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 26th, 2024
Race 7 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:12 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Strike When Ready, Lady Emily Kathryn, Kehoe Beach, Work of Fiction
This is an exceptionally wide open race with a full field which should lend itself to profit as there are a few horses likely to go to post at much higher odds than make sense. One of those is Strike When Ready, who just won on 9/17 at the one lower NW1X allowance level. She did so with a visually impressive rally from eighth with a quarter mile to run and was still fifth and seven lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go before blowing by four horses to get up by a neck. Previously, she imported from Ireland over the winter after just one race in Ireland and ran poorly for Gallagher in California in April, but when shipped to the care of Correas she was a new horse and won in July to break her maiden, before taking a big step forward to win last month, earning a 95 Equibase Speed Figure which is the BEST last race figure in the field. Not only that but Jose Ortiz was up for the first time in victory and rides back and there is every reason to believe this filly can win her third in a row, opening at 12 to 1.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 19th, 2024
Race 8 at Keeneland – Post Time 4:44 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Paros
Other contenders: Bold Discovery, Dripping Gold, Taking Candy, Irish Aces
Paros just ran the best race of his career, in his 16th career start, but more importantly first for Mike Maker off the claim. He had won two in a row prior to that, all on turf, then on 9/1 at Saratoga the horse showed a visually impressive turn of foot going from seventh, to fifth, to the lead with a strong 111 Equibase Speed Figure and sensational 22.2 last quarter mile. He’s likely to improve upon as he moves up in class just one step from NW2X to NW3X and gets the rail to save ground before launching his late bid.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 12th, 2024
Sands Point Stakes – Race 5 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 2:13 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Courbe, Style Points
For use on exacta tickets: Mo Fox Girvin, Spaliday
Having never run on turf, Courbe may be ignored by some bettors, perhaps for our benefit. This exceptionally well-bred daughter of Quality Road is out of an unraced mare which was bred by the owners, Wertheimer et Frere, who have campaigned some of the best turf horses in the world for decades. Courbe won in her debut last August (2023) on dirt then as you might expect for a talented two year old was put on the road to the Kentucky Oaks. After finishing fourth in the Pocahontas Stakes she dropped into an allowance race and won easily once again. She may have had issues so was off for nine months until this past July when Courbe returned in a stakes at Saratoga on dirt and finished just a neck behind the runner-up, in spite of almost falling at the start. Off that effort she was well-regarded at 7 to 2 in the Cathryn Sophia Stakes in August but once again had trouble at the start, getting pinched back to last. She moved up to third mid-race but then tired. The winner of that race was Gun Song, who came back to nearly defeat Thorpedo Anna in the Cotillion Stakes last month. Considering this horse’s breeding for turf and quality, that she’s making her third start off a layoff and won her third carer start, and that trainer Todd Pletcher won this race with Wait a While moving from dirt to turf, I think Courbe can post the upset. It may also be important to note the jockey Carmouche rides for the first time and has a very good record for Pletcher – 63 for 250 over the last five years and better still perhaps 11 for 58 in stakes races.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday October 5th, 2024
Frizette Stakes – Race 7 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 3:17 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Another Cleeshay, Senza Parole, Snowyte
Another Cleeshay may be ignored in the betting off a maiden win at Saratoga compared to others with stakes races recently. However, she won much more easily than the 78 Equibase Speed Figure makes it appear, virtually galloping late to a nine and one-half length win. This was AFTER tossing her head to the side when the gate opened, breaking eighth of 10, before easily gaining the lead and not showing any signs of mis-expending any energy. Trainer Contessa won the 2023 Hopeful Stakes for two year olds last year at 50 to 1 odds off a horse with just a maiden win and I think this filly is going to be well worth wagering on today as she can post the upset.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday September 28th, 2024
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes – Race 6 at Aqueduct (Belmont at the Big A) – Post Time 2:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contender: Emmanuel, Far Bridge, Silver Knott
Other contenders: War Like Goddess
There is little doubt in my mind Get Smokin will go for the lead and open up, as he draws the rail and only wins when leading from the start. He won the 2023 Kentucky Turf Cup at this 12 furlong trip in that fashion, and he won the United Nations Stakes at 11 furlongs in July the same way, but there are too many good horses in this field who, in spite of the early pace, can run him down late.