Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 20, 2024
Monmouth Cup Stakes – Race 10 at Monmouth – Post Time 4:38 PM Eastern
Top win Contender: Counterspy
Other win contender: Highland Falls
Counterspy is a “lone front runner” with an aggressive rider in Paco Lopez, who was up for a very strong win on June 10 where the horse won more easily than it appears, earning a 108 Equibase Speed Figure which is the best/fastest winning figure earned by any horse in the field this year. In his only start since, he did not get the lead in a seven furlong race where the opening half-mile was :44 and change but he was four lengths off that hot pace which projects to an easy lead in this two-turn race. Counterspy has won his last four two-turn races, all powerfully, with the one on March 24 even faster than on June 10, as he earned a 112 figure, and so it is highly likely he can win for the seventh time in his career. Even if low odds he may offer value in doubles to the next race, the United Nations, and similarly to the pick 3 ending in the Haskell (Race 12).
Saratoga Selections July 13, 2024
Opening weekend at Saratoga. Three stakes on the Saturday card with the Grade 1 Diana coming up tough with 10 fillies and mares set to go. Our first episode of Saratoga Saturday brought to you by AmWager is out on Past the Wire TV and we talk all three stakes and touch base with Shug! For now, […]
Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 13, 2024
My Dear Stakes – Race 8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Bound to Be True, Soupergirl, Obliging, Bullet
This two year old stakes race for fillies drew a field of nine, with ALL nine having won their most recent race, and for seven of those that win came in their debut. All of these two year old fillies can improve, and considering Bound to Be True ran the fastest of the group and opens at 8 to 1, she gets top billing. She showed a lot of maturity rallying from fourth in her debut and gets a contested pace to close into again as up to FIVE of the others may be need-the-lead types. Better still, Bound to Be True was FLATTERED as both the runner-up and third place finishers won their next starts. The 78 Equibase Speed Figure she earned, which is expected to be improved upon, is the best in the field and she has no knocks.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 8, 2024
True North Stakes – Race 4 at Saratoga – Post Time 12:31 PM Eastern
Top Contenders: Rotknee
Other contenders: Accretive, Gun It, Gun Pilot
Gun Pilot, who won the Grade 1 Churchill Downs Stakes on Derby day at 5 to 1, opens as the even money favorite here. I know a morning linemaker’s job is to estimate what odds a horse will be at post time, and as such perhaps Gun Pilot will be the prohibitive favorite at post time but it’s odd because prior to that win, the colt won two allowance races and was runner-up in a non-graded stakes race. OTHER horses in the field have similarly good recent races, except they don’t have a graded stakes win, but they have run AS FAST.
The Travers 2023
The Travers turned out to be quite the race this year. We have The Derby winner, The Preakness winner, and The Belmont winner. The others are not exactly slouches either. It is an exciting race and will go a long way to determining the best three-year-old in the land. Let’s get right to it. Forte […]