Key Races & Bets for Saturday August 10th, 2024
Saratoga Special – Race 8 at Saratoga – Post Time 4:29 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Smoken Wicked, Showcase, Touchy
Although not having run the fastest in the field, Smoken Wicked may still be the one to beat based on the fact that he closed from second to win his debut by seven and one-half lengths, before rallying from 10th to second in his second career start. That effort came in the Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs at the end of June, where Smoken Wicked broke very well to be first in initial stages, but then dropped back to seventh. Appearing to lose focus and drifting further back to 10th with a quarter mile to run, all of a sudden Smoken Wicked picked up the pace and in the span of one-eighth of a mile and in spite of running seven paths wide the colt passed seven horses to go from 10th to second. With a jockey change to Tyler Gaffalione and breaking from the ground saving rail instead of the extreme outside, Smoken Wicked gets a made to order early pace scenario for his late kick, as six of the other horses all won when leading from the start, while another (Touchy) led from the start before settling for second. Although he earned a 73 Equibase Speed Figure, well short of the field high 89 figure Keep It Easy earned in his most recent race, Smoken Wicked may be able to take a huge step forward to win the Saratoga Special with his late kick particularly as Keep It Easy earned his high figure leading from start to finish and may not be able to get an easy lead in this field as he did last time out.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 27, 2024
Ontario Colleen Stakes – Race 8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:47 PM Eastern
Top win Contender: Sabatini
Other contenders: Crevalle d’Oro, Ready for Shirl, Simply in Front
Longshot to consider: Miss Roberts
Sabatini stretched out to two turns for the first time four weeks ago to win the Grade 3 Selene Stakes, with a visually impressive move on the far turn to go from fourth to first, and easily held a two length advantage for the final eighth of a mile. That effort earned a field high 100 Equibase Speed Figure and being as this will be her second route she should run even better. She’s bred to run as well on grass as she did on all-weather and is the one to beat.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday July 13, 2024
My Dear Stakes – Race 8 at Woodbine – Post Time 4:48 PM Eastern
Win Contenders: Bound to Be True, Soupergirl, Obliging, Bullet
This two year old stakes race for fillies drew a field of nine, with ALL nine having won their most recent race, and for seven of those that win came in their debut. All of these two year old fillies can improve, and considering Bound to Be True ran the fastest of the group and opens at 8 to 1, she gets top billing. She showed a lot of maturity rallying from fourth in her debut and gets a contested pace to close into again as up to FIVE of the others may be need-the-lead types. Better still, Bound to Be True was FLATTERED as both the runner-up and third place finishers won their next starts. The 78 Equibase Speed Figure she earned, which is expected to be improved upon, is the best in the field and she has no knocks.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday June 29, 2024
Manila Stakes – Race 7 at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct) – Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern
Top Win Contenders: Please Advise, Mattingly
Although only six are entered, there’s only one from the Chad Brown barn, Move to Gold, who may be favored off a nose defeat in the Jersey Derby for weeks ago. He also won the Awad Stakes last October on this course, but he’s no standout based on a career-best 92 Equibase Speed Figure earned in the Jersey Derby. Another horse likely to take money is Deterministic, who won the Gotham Stakes on dirt in March before running exceptionally poorly in the Wood Memorial (at 4 to 5 odds) and in the Peter Pan. He’s never run on turf and will be overbet. Neat won the Transylvania Stakes at Keeneland one before his most recent race but ran inexplicably bad in the American Turf on Derby day and there is a question mark about whether he can rebound here, but he may also be bet because he’s dropping from grade 2 to grade 3. Drunk on Sake is completely over matched here coming off a maiden claiming win where he wired the field on slow fractions. He will not have the lead in this field and that takes him out of the mix.
Key Races & Bets for Saturday April 27, 2024
Race 5 at Aqueduct -Post Time 3:28 PM Eastern
Top Contenders: Mister J T, Got Thunder
There is a lot of early speed in this six furlong starter allowance race, with Capone (on the rail) having led at the start or having been within a head of the lead in his last six races. Printrack, Chateau, Ryan’s Cat and possibly Colonel Vargo are also need-the-lead types and it’s only going to take two or three to go all out from the start for all of them to tire late and set up the two closers.