August 20th – Thrilling Picks Select Picks
Friday Aug 20
Below are our selections that can be used to build multi-race wagers (doubles, PICK3/4/5). These horses fit custom models we built for today’s unique races.
We structure these selections as:
Must Use – horses with the best shot to win
Contenders – average horses which are the biggest threat to the must use
Stretch – these tend to be overlooked horses that have attributes that match past longshot winners, if budget allows, these can be helpful but also present higher risks
Must Use #3, 7
Why: best speed last 3 races, E1 pace, E2 pace
Must Use #1, 2, 6
Must Use #1, 5
Why: Jockey rank
Must Use #6, 7
Why: E2 pace
Must Use #7
Contender #10, 11
The #7, 10, 11 have the top speed and top late pace.
#10 Kennebec has the trainer 2yr adv, which is helpful for this race type , found in 50% of past winners
Must Use #1
We will single the #1 ScotishStar, it has th best speed, jockey, trainer, % of horses beat and in the money %. Yes #3 and #4 are contenders but we expect this is one leg we can single.
Using #1, 2, 5, 8
Contenders #5, 6
Debut runners #10
Debut runners have won this race typ 90% of the time, those winners had a jockey ranked in the top 3, today #10 Big Switch meets the criteria.
$0.50 PK3 on 3,6,7/1,2,6/1,3,5
$0.50 PK5 on 3,6/1,2/1,5/6,7/7,10,11
$0.20 PK6 on 1,5/2,6,7/7,10/1/1-3,5,8/5,6,10
$0.50 PK3 on 2,6,7/6,7,10,11/1,3,4
$0.50 PK3 on 6,7,10,11/1/1-3