Sands Point Stakes – Race 6 at Belmont – Post Time 3:15 PM Eastern
Jordan’s Leo just finished second in the Pebbles Stakes, an ungraded stakes but one for three year olds only like this and with only a $50K lower purse. That was her second ever try on turf and her first was just before that when winning clearly in a field of nine. Her 100 Equibase Figure is only one point shy of the 101 figure 2/1 morning line favorite Higher Truth earned when second in the Jockey Club Oaks yet Jordan’s Leo opens at 6 to 1 for the combination of Luis Saez and Todd Pletcher. In short, she’s the one to beat in my opinion.
Runaway Rumour was just one length behind Jordan’s Leo when third in the Pebbles last month and was second in the similar grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes prior to that yet is another with odds to be taken advantage of as she opens at ridiculously high 8 to 1. She won the first three starts of her career from May through the end of June, all on turf, including the Wild Applause Stakes here at Belmont and Lezcano rides her very well.
Third Draft is the bomb we can hope hits the board for the exacta or trifecta, opening at 30/1 because her last race was awful as she finished ninth in the Pebbles. My opinion is there’s no reason to base her probability to win on that one race because before that she was in the money in six straight including when second in the Riskaverse Stakes at Saratoga at 6 to 1. Castellano gets on for McGaughey, who saddled an 11/1 winner at Keeneland on Thursday.
Two of the starting favorites – Fluffy Socks (7 to 2) and Higher Truth (2 to 1) – can hit the board but aren’t as high a probability to win as their odds suggest. Higher Truth won her second and third career starts this spring and although third, second and second since that doesn’t mean she is a standout here. Fluffy Socks finished second two back in the Grade 3 Lake George which isn’t even as good as Runaway Rumor’s runner-up effort in the Lake Placid and she was third in the Del Mar Oaks in California last out and my response is that doesn’t make her a standout. Three to one second betting choice Harajuku was two lengths behind Higher Truth in the Oaks and never closed so I don’t think she’s going to beat that one and since I think there others more likely to win as compared to Higher Truth, Harajuku isn’t a contender.
Win bets: Jordan’s Leo AND Runaway Rumour should be bet to win at odds of 5 to 2 or higher.
I’d probably make a very small ($2 to $5) win bet on Third Draft at 10 to 1 or more as well.
When making multiple win bets, use a “Dutching” tool to do the work of allocating your wagering dollars for the best edge. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exacta: Jordan’s Leo and Runaway Rumour over Jordan’s Leo, Runaway Rumour, Third Draft, Higher Truth and Fluffy Socks.