Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint – Race 5 at Del Mar – Post Time 3:40 PM Eastern (12:40 PM Pacific)
Emaaraty Ana, A Case of You, Extravagant Kid and Lieutenant Dan are the contenders to win this race.
Just a cut below the four contenders listed above are Fast Boat, Gear Jockey, Kimari, Golden Pal & Glass Slippers and I wouldn’t argue against their inclusion on exacta, trifecta, pick 3 or 4 tickets, or even win bets at double digit odds.
Emaaraty Ana has run the three best races of his career, starting with a big win three back at the end of July at this five furlong trip on grass where he led for the last furlong and drew off to a two length win. Moving up significantly in class, Emaaraty Ana ran against 13 other horses in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes, with a $500K purse, at the same trip and finished second. Next came a career-best effort in the 11 horse Betfair Sprint Cup (with a $380K purse) in September in which he made the lead with a furlong to go and held on gamely by a nose. Those last two efforts earned 124 and 126 equivalent Equibase Figures which are identical to the 123 figure 2020 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner Glass Slippers earned in the Prix de l’Abbaye, also at five furlongs, right before her victory last year. World class jockey Azteni, up for those last two efforts, rides Emaaraty Ana back and this five year old may take some beating and is a great bet to win anywhere near his starting 5 to 1 odds.
A Case of You attempts to do this year what Glass Slippers did last year. Glass Slippers is in this year’s race but has not run as well in three 2021 starts as she did prior to winning this race one year ago. This year, A Case of You is better suited on the same pattern as last year’s winner. A Case of You finished second, beaten a half-length, and a neck in front of Glass Slippers, in the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes in September, which Glass Slippers won last year. Then, improving again, A Case of You won the Prix de l’Abbaye, beating 13 horses to earn the same 123 Equibase Speed Figure Glass Slippers did last year before winning the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. As a three year old, A Case of You still has room to mature and grow up and opening at 8 to 1 is another horse we should be compelled to bet to win and use on other tickets we play involving this race.
Extravagant Kid has had a sensational career to date, winning 15 times and finishing second in 17 other races from 53 starts. He does have more runner-up finishes than wins but he shows up every time. He went to Dubai this spring and beat 12 horses to win the Group 1 Al Quoz Sprint with the same top 123 figures Emaaraty Ana and A Case of You earned recently. After third and 14th place efforts in England, he took three months off and returned to good form closing for second to wire-to-wire winner Golden Pal last month in the Woodford Stakes. With Golden Pal unlikely to get an easy lead in this race like he had last out, Extravagant Kid should be passing many of these late and I like the fact he is reunited with Ryan Moore, who has only ridden him once and that was to his strong win in the Al Quoz Sprint in March.
Lieutenant Dan has turned into one tough competitor since trying turf sprinting in March, 2020. He won a Cal-Bred stakes that day then finished second at a mile before something sidelined him for 13 months. Since coming back in July of this year, Lieutenant Dan has won three straight turf sprints, including the Green Flash Handicap at this trip on the Del Mar turf. He does run close to the lead but he’s not a need-the-lead type and with a 118 figure very close to the best in this field to run back to from the Green Flash, he should be regarded when considering our wagers involving this race.
Emaaraty Ani and A Case of You to win at odds of 3 to 1 or more.
I will also consider win bets on Extravagant Kid at 4 to 1 or more and on Lieutenant Dan at 9 to 2 or more.
Personally, I will likely be betting the two (from the four above) which are the highest odds near post time.
When we consider wagers on two or more overlays from fair (minimum odds), we can and should adjust our bets accordingly in order to maximize our profit both in the short term and in the long term. That can be best accomplished by using a “Dutching Tool” like the one which is free and easy to use at Amwager.com. A Dutching tool lets you set the amount you want to bet or the amount you want to win, then based on the odds your bets are proportioned accordingly. Amwager has a great dutching tool available, among many other great features.
Exactas: (two options)
Emaaraty Ana and A Case of You over Emaaraty Ana, A Case of You, Extravagant Kid, Lieutenant Dan, Fast Boat, Gear Jockey, Golden Pal, Kimari and Glass Slippers.
Box Emaaraty Ana, A Case of You, Extravagant Kid and Lieutenant Dan.
Race 5: Emaaraty Ana, A Case of You, Extravagant Kid, Lieutenant Dan.
Race 6: Ginobili, Silver State, Life is Good