Saturday
I land on Sorrento Sky in the San Simeon. He looks like the right horse in the right kind of race, and I think the setup gives him a real chance to turn the tables.
He has had a few less than perfect trips lately, and to me that matters with these downhill turf races because position is everything. Last time in the Clockers’ Corner he ran well to be second, but he still had to work for it and was outkicked late after being floated out. Two back in the Joe Hernandez, he saved ground but got tight late and never really had the kind of clear momentum you want in a race like this. Go back a little further and the pattern is the same: he keeps showing up, keeps holding his own, but has not always gotten the smoothest passage.
What I like here is the draw and the projected flow. From the outside, Geroux should have options. Sorrento Sky is not some one-run deep closer who has to come from the clouds. He has enough tactical speed to sit a little closer than usual, and I think that can make all the difference going down the hill. Instead of having to make one big sweeping run and hoping everything opens up, he can get into stride, stay within range, and have less to do late. That is a big edge in a race where subtle trip differences often decide the outcome.
He also simply fits this race. He has been one of the better turf sprinters on this circuit, he has proven form over the course, and he was third in this race last year. This is a horse who handles the hill, and not every good turf sprinter does. That familiarity counts.
Sumter is an obvious danger. He is another who should appreciate getting back to the hill, and he has kept strong company. But he has had his chances at this trip and often seems to find one or two a bit better late. Gran Oriente is interesting off the Jan. 23 hillside win and may be rounding into his best U.S. form, so he is no throw-out. Seal Team has the class to win this if he is ready off the long layoff, but that is asking a lot in a sharp race like this. Genius Jimmy is consistent and tactical, though I prefer others for this particular test.

For me, it comes back to trip.
Sorrento Sky is well drawn, gets a race shape that should let him sit a touch closer, and does not need to improve a ton to get the money. He just needs the kind of clean, measured trip he has not always had lately. If he gets that, I think he is the one they have to beat.
Sunday
Public Assembly is where I land in the Santa Ana.
She looks like the trip horse in here, and that matters in a race where the obvious one, Mrs. Astor, has done a lot of winning but has also had to work awfully hard for it. I always say they are not machines. Public Assembly has had some less than ideal journeys of late, and I think she can finally get the kind of trip that gives her a real chance to turn the tables.
In the Megahertz last time, she never really got comfortable, lacked room in the stretch, and still was not beaten far. Two back in the Robert J. Frankel, she was again compromised a bit early and only got going late. Go one race further back to the Red Carpet and you can argue she ran the kind of race that says she fits very well with this group, making the lead and only getting nailed late by Mrs. Astor. That was at a marathon trip, and to me that is important. She has shown before she can stay, and this distance may be what helps bring out her best.
That is the angle for me. Public Assembly is not some wild reach here. She is a mare who has been dancing with the right company, holding her own, and doing it without things really going her way. If she gets a cleaner, more straightforward trip under Geroux, I think she can make the first run at the right time and finish the job this time instead of settling for an underneath share.
Mrs. Astor is the one to fear, no question. She is classy, honest, and clearly loves this course. But she is also coming in off a pair of hard-fought wins, and when a mare keeps having to dig deep every time, there can come a day when she is just a touch vulnerable. She has had things her own way often enough, but she has won by narrow margins, and that tells you the edge is not huge. At a short price, that is where I am willing to try and beat her.
Paradise Lake is another logical player. She continues in sharp form and has tactical speed that can put her in the race from the jump. The concern for me is whether ten furlongs is truly where she is best, especially against this kind of seasoned turf route bunch. Starry Night is lightly raced and still improving, so she is not impossible, but this is another test altogether at a new distance. Hey Jessie has some appeal underneath off that strong effort against the boys, and Resolve is the kind that can clunk up for a piece if the race gets a little scrambled late.
But the one I want is Public Assembly.
She has back class, she has the right distance profile, and most importantly she has the look of a mare sitting on the right race if she can finally avoid the kind of traffic and inconvenience that have cost her in recent starts. Mrs. Astor may be the proven mare on a roll, but Public Assembly is the one I see getting the better setup.

eekend