February 11th – Thrilling Picks Select Picks
Thursday Gulfstream Park
#3 EXACT, from the Todd Pletcher barn, has both the lifetime earnings and turf earnings advantage. When present in past runners for this race type, 50% of those horses won. No surprise #3 is the ML favorite, the data backs it up as a legitimate contender for the win.
In those instances when 50% of heavy favorites lost, they were beat by horses who ranked in the top two for last race class, top three for AVG E2 pace and/or top three for best speed at this distance. #9 Bahamian Rhapsody meets those attributes.
OUR PICK 5
r2 #5, 1, 12 and including #9 in the P5
r3 #1, 2
r4 # 2, 3, 8 and longshot 9
r5 #3, 5 Cost $32
#1, 2, 6
RACE 2 The ML favorite #9 Obstinate lacks the E1 and E2 pace found in past winners for this condition. Based on trainer 2 yr win % + mud pedigree + last E2 pace + earnings the #5 Lady Fiorella bubbles to the top of our model.
However, #5 is returning from a 8 month layoff which is a concern. All past winners ran their prior races no longer than 60 days earlier. The #1 Create A Story and #12 Auburn round out our top picks.
OUR PICK 4
r2 # 5, 1, 12
r3 # 1, 2
r4 # 2, 3, 8
r5 # 3 is the best choice (speed last race), 5 and #2 is a stretch/wildcard Cost $27
#1 Lease has the strong speed advantage (avg 2 of last 3 races + lifetime speed) and ranks 2nd for lifetime earnings. #1 Lease looks like a legit favorite, right?
The data says otherwise. Past horses with the same advantages have never won this race profile (but they have earned 2nd place 50% of the time).
These events in the data took place at Gulfstream Park:
So we created a model around those 9 races, to identify characteristics of those horses who overtook the faster chalky options. 6 out of 9 times, the winner had odds 8-1 or greater. Keep this in mind: longshots have mostly won.
We found Avg E1 Pace, Last Purse, Dirt Pedigree and Trainer 2yr Win % to be the consistent factors that predicted the winner for those races.
Our model point towards these contenders: the chalky #7, 10 longshots #3, 11
Here is the value:
we learn #1 Lease is probably a false favorite and we recognize longshots have a strong chance to complete Thursday’s late PICK3, PICK4, PICK5.
r8 # 4, 3
r9 # 1, 11
r10 # 7, 10 and 3, 11