February 11th – Thrilling Picks Select Picks

Thursday Gulfstream Park


#3 EXACT, from the Todd Pletcher barn, has both the lifetime earnings and turf earnings advantage. When present in past runners for this race type, 50% of those horses won. No surprise #3 is the ML favorite, the data backs it up as a legitimate contender for the win.

In those instances when 50% of heavy favorites lost, they were beat by horses who ranked in the top two for last race class, top three for AVG E2 pace and/or top three for best speed at this distance. #9 Bahamian Rhapsody meets those attributes.


r1 #3

r2 #5, 1, 12 and including #9 in the P5

r3 #1, 2

r4 # 2, 3, 8 and longshot 9

r5 #3, 5 Cost $32



#1, 2


Cost $1




#1, 2, 6

Cost $1.50

RACE 2 The ML favorite #9 Obstinate lacks the E1 and E2 pace found in past winners for this condition. Based on trainer 2 yr win % + mud pedigree + last E2 pace + earnings the #5 Lady Fiorella bubbles to the top of our model.

However, #5 is returning from a 8 month layoff which is a concern. All past winners ran their prior races no longer than 60 days earlier. The #1 Create A Story and #12 Auburn round out our top picks.


r2 # 5, 1, 12

r3 # 1, 2

r4 # 2, 3, 8

r5 # 3 is the best choice (speed last race), 5 and #2 is a stretch/wildcard Cost $27


#1 Lease has the strong speed advantage (avg 2 of last 3 races + lifetime speed) and ranks 2nd for lifetime earnings. #1 Lease looks like a legit favorite, right?

The data says otherwise. Past horses with the same advantages have never won this race profile (but they have earned 2nd place 50% of the time).

These events in the data took place at Gulfstream Park:


So we created a model around those 9 races, to identify characteristics of those horses who overtook the faster chalky options. 6 out of 9 times, the winner had odds 8-1 or greater. Keep this in mind: longshots have mostly won.

We found Avg E1 Pace, Last Purse, Dirt Pedigree and Trainer 2yr Win % to be the consistent factors that predicted the winner for those races.

Our model point towards these contenders: the chalky #7, 10 longshots #3, 11

Here is the value:

we learn #1 Lease is probably a false favorite and we recognize longshots have a strong chance to complete Thursday’s late PICK3, PICK4, PICK5.


r8 # 4, 3

r9 # 1, 11

r10 # 7, 10 and 3, 11

Get more Thrilling Picks with the app

Share This Story!

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on pinterest
Share on email

Related Posts

The Awesome Again Stakes

Santa Anita the host of this year’s Breeders’ Cup opens Friday. On Saturday they run The Awesome Again which has served as a prep and

Read More »

The Noble Damsel

A lot of people will be watching Parx and The Pensylvania Derby on Saturday. I will be as well bit I will be more focused

Read More »