February 20th – Thrilling Picks Select Picks

Saturday, Feb 20th – Gulfstream Park

RACE 3

#1 DontPushYourLuck maybe a false favorite in this race. Yes, betting against Irad on 2-1 feels terribly unnatural. However historically, the horse with the strong speed advantage has never won. Lets underline, there are only 4 past races that are similar in profile which we are modeling against, so yes, the data set is limited.

In our Saturday PICK3/4/5’s we will omit #1 DonPushYourLuck to instead, gamble on the #5, 6, 7

Double

Rc3 # 5, 6, 7
Rc4 # 3, 4, 5

RACE 4
#3 Briella has the speed advantage, but for this race profile this edge has only helped 33% of similar horses win in the past. At 8-5 ML odds, we will not exclude the #3, however believe the challengers #4 and #5 must be also included in any PICK3/4/5. Our model for this race recognized the #3, 4, 5 ranked top in a mix of significant factors that helped past winners. Those factors: Avg E1 pace, Distance Since Last Work, Trainer Meet Win%, Avg Turn Time

RACE7
#4 Top Gun Tommy lacks the E2 and Turn Time to win over this field.

We predict #4 is false favorite at 2-1. Instead our model points to #9 Seazan as best and we will also include the #2 & #7 in our PICK3/4/5s

Significant factors: Best Speed Fast Track, Distance Pedigree, Dirt Pedigree, Distance Worked Since Last Race

DOUBLE
Rc7 # 2, 7, 9

Rc8 # 1, 2

Get more Thrilling Picks

Share This Story!

Share on facebook
Share on twitter
Share on linkedin
Share on reddit
Share on pinterest
Share on email

Related Posts

The 147th Preakness

The Preakness didn’t really lose any luster when the connections of Derby winner Rich Strike decided to pass the race. They picked up budding star

Read More »

Peter Pan Stakes 2022

The Kentucky Derby is in the books. We saw one of the biggest upsets in the storied history of the race. Sandwiched in between the

Read More »