Saturday, Feb 20th – Gulfstream Park
#1 DontPushYourLuck maybe a false favorite in this race. Yes, betting against Irad on 2-1 feels terribly unnatural. However historically, the horse with the strong speed advantage has never won. Lets underline, there are only 4 past races that are similar in profile which we are modeling against, so yes, the data set is limited.
In our Saturday PICK3/4/5’s we will omit #1 DonPushYourLuck to instead, gamble on the #5, 6, 7
Rc3 # 5, 6, 7
Rc4 # 3, 4, 5
#3 Briella has the speed advantage, but for this race profile this edge has only helped 33% of similar horses win in the past. At 8-5 ML odds, we will not exclude the #3, however believe the challengers #4 and #5 must be also included in any PICK3/4/5. Our model for this race recognized the #3, 4, 5 ranked top in a mix of significant factors that helped past winners. Those factors: Avg E1 pace, Distance Since Last Work, Trainer Meet Win%, Avg Turn Time
#4 Top Gun Tommy lacks the E2 and Turn Time to win over this field.
We predict #4 is false favorite at 2-1. Instead our model points to #9 Seazan as best and we will also include the #2 & #7 in our PICK3/4/5s
Significant factors: Best Speed Fast Track, Distance Pedigree, Dirt Pedigree, Distance Worked Since Last Race
Rc7 # 2, 7, 9
Rc8 # 1, 2
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